HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Earlier this week I said by Sunday we would have a winter threat to track so I'll stand by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: 'sides, I'm way more sobering than Scott on here - I know that! Not that I want to incur Ray's wrath - Well, ...I don't personally count the subtle polish remover overnight runs that rubbed chaffing, as much more than mere giga motions along a route to whatever materializes in terms of amplitude... but I suspect we earn more "curvi" linear forms of that than the flat sonic speed variety. Although, I still think we're going to have to deal with the interminable subtropical band some - that's probably going to be a permanent fixture that gets lost/absorbed into the summer tapestry in the far future.. Anyway, to me I see this as 24 hours and counting... I need the three days, personally, and I'm not wavering on that, because that would beat the standard model f-up cut-off time standard they've earned this winter. Stick with it for more awhile... At a more philosophical level, ...we're colder now. That's not as silly as it sounds. That's been a big bugaboo going on a month's worth now... as cold has been routinely backing off at least excuse. That appears to finally be a bucked trend. Tomorrow will succeed at this point! Now, we see some semblance in the GEFs for -NAO for 3 to 5 days a week from now. And this is more than less mapped reasonably well from what I gather of the Euro's ensembles from the piss-poor resource I use... fwiw. But, the tandem of the two combined with these operational tempos, all told and the cold now and getting colder, I almost wonder if the cutter bomb N of Superior next week doesn't help trigger a more aggressive if transient west-based augmentation around said -NAO. These are the kind of things to consider, and they may or may not be presented on any current tools. In 2005 I saw blowing snow off an office building at 1:45 in the afternoon on April 12th... It's just the way seasonal lag works. You'd never expect that or see it in the first week of September, but going the other direction, the Earth resists seasons and that lapses affairs pretty dramatically - or in the least, gives the green late for late expressions on the ends of seasons. Duh. No wrath, John....just kidding with him...he knows that. I have said countless times...while I think this blocking idea holds some weight, I will not be surprised if it isn't that extreme. No argument- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Let me guess, you had Price in your fantasy draft. Haven't drafted yet....but I was just thinking today that the Price maybe right to draft him, if he falls considerably.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Holy **** Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Huge blizzard Major block and a crawling low pressure Amazing run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Looks like the Euro has a little weak grazer at the end of the 00Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Huge blizzard Major block and a crawling low pressure Amazing run How far out is that idea??? Let me guess, 10 days????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How far out is that idea??? Let me guess, 10 days????? 9. But it shows 40" so it has a higher probability of happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: How far out is that idea??? Let me guess, 10 days????? 9 days Amazing run but its 1 run. If the block is indeed real, watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 7:39 PM, codfishsnowman said: there is no midweek event for sne Not gunna happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncforecaster89 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: 9 days Amazing run but its 1 run. If the block is indeed real, watch out. What 00z giveth, 12z will likely take away! I guess 3' of fantasy snow is better than none at all. At the very least, this continues the model trends suggesting the prospective -NAO might actually be real, this time. Right now, I can't help but to be quite skeptical. I guess one could make the case we are somewhat overdue for another KU March blizzard and a return to real sustained blocking. Only time will tell. Here's to hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 That actually could happen. Can also see right behind it the big torch coming for middle and late month. Many times in spring we get this massive snowstorms and then the warmth comes in a day or 2 later..like April 97 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Lol. The euro and gfs couldn't be further apart. I mean one is in a galaxy far far away and the other is in a galaxy far far far away. Lol. Fun 10-14 days coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Well I can tell you which camp I like to have on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Was there EPS support for the 1888 storm and also for the blocking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Was there EPS support for the 1888 storm and also for the blocking? It had something there, but not the op gone wild. There is also blocking support, but despite that...we also don't want a crappy pacific either. That's also one to watch. But with Canada being pretty chilly....the blocking would certainly help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well I can tell you which camp I like to have on my side. +15C 850s over Rochester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 The d7 threat is still there which is more realistic to track than the Euro D9 superstorm reincarnation. But it is still the "get me to Monday and we'll talk" variety. Amazing how completely different the GEFS and EPS are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: +15C 850s over Rochester? Will you answer my dam question to you on FB? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Pretty easy to see why the GEFS initially torch us through day 9-10. GEFS EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Pretty easy to see why the GEFS initially torch us through day 9-10. GEFS EPS Big differences Lets hope the gfs ollows the euro and eps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Big differences Lets hope the gfs ollows the euro and eps. Yeah, although usually it means a compromise is of the order which still would not be that great. Hopefully EPS wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Will you answer my dam question to you on FB? LOL. Sh&t! I read it and forgot. Top of the mountain lift shack will get it today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Sh&t! I read it and forgot. Top of the mountain lift shack will get it today! Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah, although usually it means a compromise is of the order which still would not be that great. Hopefully EPS wins. Maybe the Tippy Euro overamplification in the NW Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: The d7 threat is still there which is more realistic to track than the Euro D9 superstorm reincarnation. But it is still the "get me to Monday and we'll talk" variety. Amazing how completely different the GEFS and EPS are now. That day 10 threat, if it verified, will dig less than that.....that cutoff would end up closer to Phily or NYC, rather than N VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That day 10 threat, if it verified, will dig less than that.....that cutoff would end up closer to Phily or NYC, rather than N VA. Nice dusting ya got last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 21 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Maybe the Tippy Euro overamplification in the NW Atlantic? Look at the setup. That is just salivating. The cold dump prior with the PV north of New England. That 850 TROWAL look and temp gradient. H5 digging for oil overhead. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 Sick eye candy for sure. We also saw the euro at d6/7 couple weeks ago throw up a dc to bos crippler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2017 Share Posted March 4, 2017 6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: That actually could happen. Can also see right behind it the big torch coming for middle and late month. Many times in spring we get this massive snowstorms and then the warmth comes in a day or 2 later..like April 97 To keep it real, it stayed chilly in 1997 after the blizzard but keep in mind that normals are over 50. With the exception of one warm day on 4/7 it was cool most of the month until the final week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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