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Typhoon Tip

Model Mayhem IV!

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It's a win win here, Faster development would be more snow, Euro spits 2"+ qpf up this way which is in the 16-20" range if the ratios are on the lower side.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just went off Will's post, then checked the weenie map.....limited time right now.

Oh, well it was a bit progressive....but I did like seeing that SW ULL out of the way more and not raise heights to the east so this can dig.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It didn't.

and all other guidance continued to improve for SNE and came south.

The H5 setup was a bit more progressive. That's what he means.

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What about the Wed-Thurs system?  We haven't been talking about that, for good reason, but at one point that was seen as a very significant storm with broad impacts more KU style I think...even with a piece of the spv dropping in.

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23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

So there are some under the radar things going on. After tomorrow's clipper we get a cold tuck. Meso low develops in the GOM and sets the stage for some snow as it throws back NE winds to the coast on Sunday. Then, a system moves in like a SWFE and causes snow ormix to break out inland and close to BOS. The question then is how fast does that low bomb out as the very strong s/w moves in. I think ern MA coast may get some reach around from that as it nukes south of PWM. Obviously the Maine coast near Dryslot is under the gun.

Don't feel good about this one. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't feel good about this one. 

Depends on which event. Sunday I would for you. Monday is very tricky...need more time.

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

What about the Wed-Thurs system?  We haven't been talking about that, for good reason, but at one point that was seen as a very significant storm with broad impacts more KU style I think...even with a piece of the spv dropping in.

Right now its maybe some light snow but its east for any high impact.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't feel good about this one. 

depends what your anticipating

Those euro weenie maps are not happening, or should i say i see very little shot of a foot of snow anywhere in NE mass but well see if thing can go gangbusters like it almost did last nite then that happens. I'm imagining high end advisory low end warning up here.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Depends on which event. Sunday I would for you. Monday is very tricky...need more time.

wait we have a small event tonite into sat am.

Then separate events Sunday and Monday or just a prolonged deal with a better shot of cashing in Sunday. 

6z nam barely stops the snow for NE mass Saturday before the Meso low SN showers move in 

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Yup.  I doubt I'll be able to get there for it.   I think it's a lost cause for SNE--certainly anywhere west or south of the north shore.



I think the roof rake will be coming out of hibernation after this one.

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Does the long range like day 10 and onwards look as bad and torched as the Euro op would have you believe was setting up day 10?

Actually it sets up the stage for a large scale event when the PNA spikes again.

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually liked 12z better.

This one starts off digging more than 12z, but it is a bit more progressive. It's pretty cold though...its mostly snow for SNE north of the pike and away from the coast.

The 12z (yesterday) Euro Op was a bit better for all vs 00z.

2 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

Will and others similar to him can critique me...

Thought euro ensembles looked better than the op. Looks like secondary surface low is south of op. The midlevels would suggest plowable. Closed 5h off the Cape.

However, the 00z Ensemble took a nice step in the right direction.  The cluster became more organized and shifted southwest.  Something to keep an eye on.

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1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

depends what your anticipating

Those euro weenie maps are not happening, or should i say i see very little shot of a foot of snow anywhere in NE mass but well see if thing can go gangbusters like it almost did last nite then that happens. I'm imagining high end advisory low end warning up here.

Yea....exactly.

I could see like 4-8" maybe....but not feeling a big event here.

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Man, there is just a bright bright signal in the GEF's derived teleconnector spread and evolution for a bigger event mid-end business week but the operational GFS just refuses to really do anything other than create an entangled mess of intra-long-wave negative inferences... 

Meanwhile, the Euro (oper.) evolved a classic subsume scenario - very 1978'esque actually, perilously missing the region with the storm of the season. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Man, there is just a bright bright signal in the GEF's derived teleconnector spread and evolution for a bigger event mid-end business week but the operational GFS just refuses to really do anything other than create an entangled mess of intra-long-wave negative inferences... 

Meanwhile, the Euro (oper.) evolved a classic subsume scenario - very 1978'esque actually, perilously missing the region with the storm of the season. 

 

Jebus, Tip, you ain't kidding. I've been so myopically entranced by yesterday's and this weekend's evolutions, I totally overlooked the longer range. The signal has been there a while, but wow. Exotic. Back that puppy a few hundred miles west and lawd help us all.

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5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The Euro might give late week a shot.

Yeah this is looking pretty good at 120h...it'll be close if it doesn't hit.

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