Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It's just 10 day op runs are so far out...good chance that signal for SB Sunday(10 days from now) disappears going forward too. What makes the signal pretty strong Scott? What's standing out to you that makes it intriguing? We just had a pattern change in North America. Finally we have a trough in the East which is more conducive to winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 27, 2017 Author Share Posted January 27, 2017 If light snow is ur bag... I'll give you the 'intriguing' ... It's not impossible that something more could happen? Howevver, that probability is hindered more so than normal by the fast velocities/uber compression that is setting in as this ...quasi -EPO dump and lower heights work their way into lower Canada and presses against the seemingly interminable southern height wall that's plagued the entire winter. You guys don't seem really willing to even talk about that - fascinating. I keep (instead) hearing the words, "...Got potential" as it pertains to the next 10 days; I'd seriously have to qualify part of that potential as being negative/off-setting potential, too. But, if a clipper with a flat 40 v-max rips its way down and off the NJ...yeah, you could get a narrow latitude impact. Otherwise, as Scott said, this is a penny push pattern... think 1 to 5ers, not even 5 to 10 nickle dimers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's been a furnace relatively speaking. What a horrible month aside from 5 days. I still don't see anything to be excited about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeatMizer Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 11 hours ago, weathafella said: Super Bowl storm about to come out of the oven in GFS. Remember the winter of 2014 -2015 we had about 10 inches of snow up until the Superbowl. After the Patriots won we ended up with 108.6" by time March rolled around. There is only one caveat, Thee Pats have to win !!! See graph !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 12z GFS looks just a bit further S than 06z run for midweek clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 57 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: I'm sorry if I'm not understanding, but do we have a record for "Consecutive" days at or above 32 at BDL?? Or are those 13 and 18 from the 1930's "Consecutive days?" I checked out all of the Jans with at least 10+ mins of >=32F and the best streak I could find was 9 in a row in 1995. Honorable mention goes to 1928 with 8 straight. 1932 had a 7 day stretch and a 6 day stretch which got broken up in between by a day with 31F and one with 30F. So that is pretty damn impressive...15 straight mins in January of 30F+. We're at 9 right now so if today holds on it should be a record unless I'm overlooking something or missing years prior to 1905 on NOWdata. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It's just 10 day op runs are so far out...good chance that signal for SB Sunday(10 days from now) disappears going forward too. What makes the signal pretty strong Scott? What's standing out to you that makes it intriguing? I don't look at op runs that far out. You'll lose 30yrs off your life if you do. I look at it from an ensemble and approach to the overall pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: 12z GFS looks just a bit further S than 06z run for midweek clipper. Moisture starved verbatim but if it can drop a bit more S it may be able to tap the Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 GGEM is a little -SN Wed. Not far off from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 the winter of nickel and dimes then melting continues. Plus, once your roll into February the sun angle becomes a legit factor, days are longer and the insolation is getting stronger...I can feel it already outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 The next 7+ days is not a pattern where you expect to see a big event and have it locked for 7+ days. It usually comes up unexpectedly. So to me, SB Sunday may have legs for something (no idea about ptype..although it has a wintry look). And then maybe some light snow mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The next 7+ days is not a pattern where you expect to see a big event and have it locked for 7+ days. It usually comes up unexpectedly. So to me, SB Sunday may have legs for something (no idea about ptype..although it has a wintry look). And then maybe some light snow mid week. Yeah, could be a phaser around the SB time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 27 minutes ago, dendrite said: I checked out all of the Jans with at least 10+ mins of >=32F and the best streak I could find was 9 in a row in 1995. Honorable mention goes to 1928 with 8 straight. 1932 had a 7 day stretch and a 6 day stretch which got broken up in between by a day with 31F and one with 30F. So that is pretty damn impressive...15 straight mins in January of 30F+. We're at 9 right now so if today holds on it should be a record unless I'm overlooking something or missing years prior to 1905 on NOWdata. January in the early to mid 1930s was awful for SNE. A number of the warmest Januaries are in that time frame. Any idea as to why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, Whineminster said: the winter of nickel and dimes then melting continues. Plus, once your roll into February the sun angle becomes a legit factor, days are longer and the insolation is getting stronger...I can feel it already outside. Nape talk upcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: January in the early to mid 1930s was awful for SNE. A number of the warmest Januaries are in that time frame. Any idea as to why? Dust bowl related? idk...haven't looked at much of the indices from that period to get an idea of the patterns. Lots of legit COC winter days during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 21 minutes ago, Whineminster said: the winter of nickel and dimes then melting continues. Plus, once your roll into February the sun angle becomes a legit factor, days are longer and the insolation is getting stronger...I can feel it already outside. SE SNE had a 1'+ and E NH/ME had a 1-2' bomb. It's just the luck of the draw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: SE SNE had a 1'+ and E NH/ME had a 1-2' bomb. It's just the luck of the draw. The folks in Albany have been drawing bad cards for years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: SE SNE had a 1'+ and E NH/ME had a 1-2' bomb. It's just the luck of the draw. Yeah, that Thanksgiving sun angle really warms the cockles this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 hour ago, MetHerb said: That was the thing that struck me. This is a place where hundreds of thousands of people live and some of the villages (and Quebec City) are fairly dense and they had all this snow. I had seen that before in the mountains but never in place where peopled lived before. I just can't imagine how people would react here. Well I am guessing there would be a lot of this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 47 minutes ago, Whineminster said: the winter of nickel and dimes then melting continues. Plus, once your roll into February the sun angle becomes a legit factor, days are longer and the insolation is getting stronger...I can feel it already outside. lol...tell that to February 2015. Despite the February sun angle and longer days and insolation being stronger it still wound up being our coldest month ever in many places. I'm not saying this February will be like that but I always chuckle as these notions. It's kind of the "snow won't stick" argument in the fall or spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 There was not 8' of snow OTG, but 100" of snow in a month with no melting pretty much brought the area close to the breaking point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, MetHerb said: lol...tell that to February 2015. Despite the February sun angle and longer days and insolation being stronger it still wound up being our coldest month ever in many places. I'm not saying this February will be like that but I always chuckle as these notions. It's kind of the "snow won't stick" argument in the fall or spring. There's always a few every year who start complaining about the February sun angle...even in early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: There was not 8' of snow OTG, but 100" of snow in a month with no melting pretty much brought the area close to the breaking point. Well a 100" in a month..with no melting is a lil over 8 ft. So if there was no melting...there was pretty close to 8 ft on the ground...some compaction and what not...but there was a lot in SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well a 100" in a month..with no melting is a lil over 8 ft. So if there was no melting...there was pretty close to 8 ft on the ground...some compaction and what not...but there was a lot in SE areas. Between compaction, sublimation, and little melting...it was more like 4' in spots..maybe a hair more at times. People don't realize snow really compacts when there is a lot of weight on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 We've gained 5.2 degrees of sun elevation so far. It's still light after 5pm now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 True..didn't realize it compacted that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: True..didn't realize it compacted that much. There were definitely areas over 4' on the s shore, but what makes it crippling is not having any piles melt. Basically not having any melting causes the modes of transit to be severely impacted...whether it be by train, bus, or car. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Good GEFS run. We take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good GEFS run. We take. Care to elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 27, 2017 Share Posted January 27, 2017 Snowy week next week. Getting pumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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