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Model Mayhem III!


Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let's just hope we can get a lil something from one of those shortwaves....BDL hasn't been below freezing since January 17th..10 days ago lol.  

Wow...hadn't realized that. Anyone know the record for most consecutive days of >=32F at BDL in January?

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wow...hadn't realized that. Anyone know the record for most consecutive days of >=32F at BDL in January?

Looks like they've tied 2007 for the most mins of >= 32F with 12. According to MOS they break the record today. We'll see if they can dip below 32F tonight.

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Now that the recent direction of this thread has migrated toward one attempting to ferret out the next dose of the snow drug (tongue in cheek)... we need to almost be a Vulcan in how we do so: utterly dispassionate, and wholly objective/logical.  

I know, engaging in the former by means of that latter could not be any more oxymoronic. 

Be that as it may ... if one does not maintain at least some success in doing so, they will erode on their own patience ... setting them self up for stress and anxiety.  Yes...I say, 'anxiety,' actual anxiety.  Because, one thing 10 years of off and on involvement with social weather-related media has beaten me over the head with is that it is a fool's errand to attempt to teach people NOT to let this crap (which really doesn't mean anything in the grand scheme) become functional in their moods/happiness and so forth, if and inevitably when their apparent codependency with snow is forsaken.

They are just inconsolable, unreachable, and difficult at best to penetrate their frame of minds with any logic when that happens. I would argue though, that some of this is true on the front side, however ... Like, during the pattern assessment part and/or modeling events.   

I get it ...I'm not saying I am completely above feeling shall we say, annoyed by any in the menagerie of different means by which this hobby/life interest can prove at times to be futile.

If we were purely scientists (i.e., dispassionate and as close to purely objective as they could be), ...we wouldn't be here ;)    Our efforts/energy would be spent elsewhere, entirely productive - which ...unfortunately, part of that struggle to remain objective must come with a glimpse into a reality that pretty much all of what we do here is a "pass-time" and doesn't serve any other purpose; one that sort of questions the productive usefulness of it...  we could go on forever on that tangent but won't (it is hoped). 

So, being the venue for venting/support group that this is (if perhaps merely adorned by analytics and wisdom from time to time..)    THIS SUCKS!

But, it doesn't either?   Seriously, having the cold in place by this newly arrived paradigm really is a "step in the right direction"  I mean... 'can't have snow without cold' is probably one aphorism that really does come backed by 100% logic.  Ad nauseam (unfortunately) is that the gradient and more importantly, the fast mid level geostrophic wind velocities that are the base-line state of the circulation everywhere, is a big physical limitation to individual features that may otherwise bring the white-powder in the cellophane baggy.. It's a devil's replacement: we broker a deal, but the end result of the deal is this?  It's possible that these "riplets" in the flow that looked more promising when they were in the longer ranges, just end up so absorbed by the preponderant maelstrom that we don't see anything at all.

That's part of the rub in this sort of fast flow scenario - it kind of like 'hides' the features we should look for.   

Anyway, ramble with morning Joe...  I guess if I were looking for something a bit more pervasive and meaningfully winter impacting, I would look toward when/if the flow first shows signs of relaxing...  ?  At around that time, the cold is still in place and is no spent for if/when impulses in the flow may become more individually/physically expressive.  

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Steve, those are pretty fantastic photos! 

They remind me of back in 2001, when I was at a pub in Waltham (The 'Mad Raven') and of all places, bumped into a dude that happened to be from Nova Scotia. I was aware at the time they had a blockbuster year of snow either then or the previous... and mentioned it to him. He was like, "Oh, you mean like this...?" Reaching in to his wallet he had pictures of (seriously) 12' ambient snow pack!  

Driveways up to the entrances of two-car garages were figurative hallways with 12 to 15' high walls.  They were sheared smooth too...  The roof of the house had almost that much on it.  

Anyway, NS that year proved that it can happen (sort of) at sea level. I wonder if that could ever mean this far S ?   ..heh

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10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looks like they've tied 2007 for the most mins of >= 32F with 12. According to MOS they break the record today. We'll see if they can dip below 32F tonight.

My bad. My entry of por on nowdata didn't go through. 1933 had 13 and 1932 had a whopping 18 days. Those are the only 2 years I see with over 12.

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46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let's just hope we can get a lil something from one of those shortwaves....BDL hasn't been below freezing since January 17th..10 days ago lol.  

That's just crazy....I've hit least 32 and as low as 29° for each of the past 10 days.  I'd prefer hitting those for highs but what can you do?

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24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Steve, those are pretty fantastic photos! 

They remind me of back in 2001, when I was at a pub in Waltham (The 'Mad Raven') and of all places, bumped into a dude that happened to be from Nova Scotia. I was aware at the time they had a blockbuster year of snow either then or the previous... and mentioned it to him. He was like, "Oh, you mean like this...?" Reaching in to his wallet he had pictures of (seriously) 12' ambient snow pack!  

Driveways up to the entrances of two-car garages were figurative hallways with 12 to 15' high walls.  They were sheared smooth too...  The roof of the house had almost that much on it.  

Anyway, NS that year proved that it can happen (sort of) at sea level. I wonder if that could ever mean this far S ?   ..heh

When I went to Quebec in 2008 I experienced a similar thing but it was in early April so everything was melting.  Even then there was a solid 6' snowpack on the ground and you could see these huge mountains of snow in front of everyone's house.  The mounds were about the size of the house.  The driveways were these canyons and I can just imagine trying to get of of them.  There wasn't any snow on the roofs because they were metal and by April the snow had all slid off.  We drove up the main highway along the St Lawrence and the banks on the side of the road were just incredible.  Not bad for a place that's a days drive away.

I posted a couple of pictures in the model thread in case anyone was interested.

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3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

I just replicated it. Total days... the record is 13 and 18 for the Hartford areas from 1933 and 1932, respectively. 

I'm sorry if I'm not understanding, but do we have a record for "Consecutive" days at or above 32 at BDL??   Or are those 13 and 18 from the 1930's "Consecutive days?"

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8 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

When I went to Quebec in 2008 I experienced a similar thing but it was in early April so everything was melting.  Even then there was a solid 6' snowpack on the ground and you could see these huge mountains of snow in front of everyone's house.  The mounds were about the size of the house.  The driveways were these canyons and I can just imagine trying to get of of them.  There wasn't any snow on the roofs because they were metal and by April the snow had all slid off.  We drove up the main highway along the St Lawrence and the banks on the side of the road were just incredible.  Not bad for a place that's a days drive away.

I posted a couple of pictures in the model thread in case anyone was interested.

You almost wonder ... that band from lower Ontario to NS ...New Fundland is sort of like an 'atmospheric glacial edge' ...?  That seems to be the real dividing line between the super high ratio/cryosphere tundra, and the lower latitudes where the ambient richness of warmth and water kisses with that.

  We are part of that here, but juuuust ever so slightly too far S to really be in it.  

I can't imagine 8' of snow on the level here in suburbia of eastern Massachusetts.  

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You almost wonder ... that band from lower Ontario to NS ...New Fundland is sort of like an 'atmospheric glacial edge' ...?  That seems to be the real dividing line between the super high ratio/cryosphere tundra, and the lower latitudes where the ambient richness of warmth and water kisses with that.

  We are part of that here, but juuuust ever so slightly too far S to really be in it.  

I can't imagine 8' of snow on the level here in suburbia of eastern Massachusetts.  

That was the thing that struck me.  This is a place where hundreds of thousands of people live and some of the villages (and Quebec City) are fairly dense and they had all this snow.  I had seen that before in the mountains but never in place where peopled lived before.  I just can't imagine how people would react here.

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5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah.... definitely ways to come out of the next 10-14 without much. Tons of time for something to pop up though.

if we are back in 2 weeks with nothing to show... I'll be ready to punt the rest of this winter 

Yeah, The potential is there for something to pop, But nothing immanent, The weds clipper was weak sauce 1-3" or so mainly in CT

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Other than the snowstorm on Super Bowl Sunday in SNE

And it doesn't look like its just a SNE storm from what i am looking at, That was at hr 240 at the end of the run, That's the period that we may see something more meaningful like i mentioned a couple days back around the 5th but looks to be pushed to the 6th now

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