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1/14 - 15 Minor Snow and Ice Threat


Bob Chill
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Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?)

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?)

Exactly how warm is that layer?  Is it 800 or 900?  850 is between them and is below freezing.

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, here we go again.

Not sure why this is laughed at and dismissed. Maybe I have missed something, but soil temps do matter, especially when we are looking a light precip event shortly after a day of temps of near 70. Sure if this were a dynamic event with heavy precip, warm ground could be easily overcome. That is not what we are looking at here, and its not like we are talking about daytime temps in the low 20s while the precip is falling.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Not sure why this is laughed at and dismissed. Maybe I have missed something, but soil temps do matter, especially when we are looking a light precip event shortly after a day of temps of near 70. Sure if this were a dynamic event with heavy precip, warm ground could be easily overcome. That is not what we are looking at here, and its not like we are talking about daytime temps in the low 20s while the precip is falling.

You don't warm frozen ground with one or two days of warmth.  You might warm the top 1/2" but the ground is frozen.

I promise you if snow falls I'll post pics of the snow covered ground shortly after it falls ... just like I did last week when this discussion was had the first time.

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10 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?)

Uh the column was clearly cold enough for snow on the 18z GFS.  Case in point, see hr 45

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12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Not trying to be a Deb Downer. But you all need to look at the full column. There is clearly a warm layer up around 800-900... Now the question is can evaporative cooling overcome that warm layer? Even out here. From what I am looking at this looks like a sleet storm to me. I could be wrong (wouldnt be the first time for sure) But I will be SHOCKED if we see significant snow from this. This, to me, is clearly an ice storm of some kind. If the precip is even real (the Euro says what precip?)

Yes, but that as a base for drizzly zr would be interesting

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26 minutes ago, RockabilyJunior said:

I've been a lurker on here for a while and I just wanted to thank everyone for all the very informative posts over the year. I've loved reading this forum. If there is one thing I've learned from this blog over the years though, it's that we are all probably overly optimistic about snow. So that being said, a not so bold prediction:

With clouds rolling in on Friday night we don't manage to cool to 32 from 48 degrees in 16 hours. We probably won't get there until midmorning Saturday if ever and ground temps will change even more slowly. Magically of our 3 inches of snow, 1 inch misses us, because there isn't a solid precip shield, 1 inch is wasted because it's just white rain, and the last inch changes over to sleet or plain rain. By the end of it we have a half inch of accumulated slop on grassy areas only. And that's if there is even qpf to talk about.

Now that I got that off my chest, I'm rooting for you guys and this non-storm to prove me wrong.

Welcome, Deb. Eskimo Joe needs some company, so don't be a stranger!

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If this were a straight ZR event I would think it won't be very interesting at those temps. But add the IP and maybe SN and who knows.  Keep expectations low and perhaps things will come together for a minor winter event that will be gone and forgotten by Tuesday.  

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Exactly how warm is that layer?  Is it 800 or 900?  850 is between them and is below freezing.

EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me.

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9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Uh the column was clearly cold enough for snow on the 18z GFS.  Case in point, see hr 45

Hour 45 is clearly snow. Hours 42 and 48 on the other hand are a mix to sleet. After that we are looking at a mix of sleet and freezing rain. This according to the soundings on the 18z GFS for DC and south. Location, location, location...

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me.

18z GFS at 45 hrs at DCA... let me know location and hour and I can get the sounding for you

18zGFSsoundingatDCA45hrs1-12-17.gif

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36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

LOL, here we go again.

I mean...it's true.  When it's 70 degrees today and 50 tomorrow, it's a legit concern.  The last time I that concern with that first wave, streets (at least where I'm at) were just wet.  Even in the cold spots roads were generally fine.  It's not that easy to get road stickage here, never has been unless you get out to the colder burbs.  If it's in the upper 20s I could see it happening but roads aren't gonna just collect snow after 30 minutes being freezing after 2 days of warmth.  

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me.

LOL, not coming after you with post.  For one, I don't even know how you know there's a warm layer.  Do you have a site that shows temps at each layer?  There's no site that I know of that gives the diagrams for Winchester.

I do have a site that gives the text data but I haven't looked at it.

My comment about "exactly" was just me trying to find out how warm and how deep.  A couple hundred meters of +0.5 might mangle flakes but I think it can be overcome.  500 meters of + 2 would probably be much different.

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15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

EXACTLY how warm? I have no F'N clue. I dont know of a site that gives the exact temps through the entire column (please someone give me a link to that). But to me there is clearly a warm layer up top. Like I said. I am no pro. This is a hobby to me. And I would much rather have snow than ice. But this screams icy to me.

http://www.twisterdata.com/

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