CT Valley Snowman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Latest HRRR still have 4" back to I-91 in CT...and that's with 10:1. Of course it was terrible yesterday morning...but hopefully performs better today. I do wonder if the ragged look of the western edge in the MId Atlantic translates up here...because I would expect to see some screw zones in that case. My personal call for CT is 1-3" west of I-91, 3-6" between 91 & the river...and 5-9" east of the river. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The distance between 91 snd the river is less than a mile in some parts of NCT that would be a narrow swath in those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: Latest HRRR still have 4" back to I-91 in CT...and that's with 10:1. Of course it was terrible yesterday morning...but hopefully performs better today. I do wonder if the ragged look of the western edge in the MId Atlantic translates up here...because I would expect to see some screw zones in that case. My personal call for CT is 1-3" west of I-91, 3-6" between 91 & the river...and 5-9" east of the river. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah I like the HRRR evolution - makes sense to me. You can see that little band that develops over CT on the nose of that 850mb jet later today. With better ratios than 10:1 I think we're in good shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: The distance between 91 snd the river is less than a mile in some parts of NCT that would be a narrow swath in those areas. LOL--I was just about to post "isn't that about 45'? " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I do have to say, it has been a great learning experience reading some of the mid level discos from Tip, Oceanwx, Scoots, Will, Ray, Jbennet, etc, etc, etc I always have trouble understanding anything above the surface and they really help paint a 3D picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: New Bedford Jack. 17" Godspeed. I hope you're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I really like Ryan and NBC's 30 map. If you shave of a hair of qpf to account for dry air but bump ratios to 15:1 due to good snow growth we should be in good shape with those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 The distance between 91 snd the river is less than a mile in some parts of NCT that would be a narrow swath in those areas.Yeah I know. Just ballparking it because I don't have time for a map. If I were to draw it out the 5-9 zone would probably be a bit east up that way, maybe closer to the HFD/TOL county borderSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersComing Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I really like Ryan and NBC's 30 map. If you shave of a hair of qpf to account for dry air but bump ratios to 15:1 due to good snow growth we should be in good shape with those amounts. Seems about right considering this is 10:1 ratio. If we get a bit better ratio that seems resonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 7 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said: I really like Ryan and NBC's 30 map. If you shave of a hair of qpf to account for dry air but bump ratios to 15:1 due to good snow growth we should be in good shape with those amounts. Yeah I feel confidence in it. Last night before the 00z runs came in I thought I may need to bump up but with the slight tick east overnight we're in good shape. The fundamentals are the same. Deep/moist dendritic growth zone rarely disappoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I don't know why I pay attention to Upton anymore. They went from super conservative yesterday to perhaps a bit too bullish today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 NAM actually looks better than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Yeah I feel confidence in it. Last night before the 00z runs came in I thought I may need to bump up but with the slight tick east overnight we're in good shape. The fundamentals are the same. Deep/moist dendritic growth zone rarely disappoints. I think that's a good map. Encompasses a good range due to some uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Yeah kind of NGW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Mr. Windcredible! said: I don't know why I pay attention to Upton anymore. They went from super conservative yesterday to perhaps a bit too bullish today. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk The NWS does a lot of things very well but man there snow maps are almost always all over the place. Poor shift-to-shift consistency, poor consistency across CWA borders sometimes, and also just some weird numbers and ranges sometimes. I feel like they're almost so bogged down by algorithms and the model blender (that incorporates a bunch of BS stuff like the SREF) that they lose sight of the bigger picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 That might bring T-Blizz off the ledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 jack zone will most deff be nw of the cape. TAN to WEY zone where ratios will be higher. BSTN - 8" PVD - 9" TAN - 13" WEY - 14" HYA - 36" ORH - 4" IJD - 7" BDL - 4" DXR - 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Map looks reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think that's a good map. Encompasses a good range due to some uncertainty. Scott, Good morning safe to safe for my area 4-5"? seeing it ticked a bit east? ty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The NWS does a lot of things very well but man there snow maps are almost always all over the place. Poor shift-to-shift consistency, poor consistency across CWA borders sometimes, and also just some weird numbers and ranges sometimes. I feel like they're almost so bogged down by algorithms and the model blender (that incorporates a bunch of BS stuff like the SREF) that they lose sight of the bigger picture. ALY does pretty well with them so far, with the new graphics, its weather underground thats the flip flop king with amounts..every hour they change.. anyone know what they base their qpf algorithm on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, 512high said: Scott, Good morning safe to safe for my area 4-5"? seeing it ticked a bit east? ty I think so. I can't rule out a screw zone..but seems ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Plymouth (I think) County destruction on the 12km. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I think so. I can't rule out a screw zone..but seems ok. lol the screw zone! thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think so. I can't rule out a screw zone..but seems ok. Kinda what Im thinking here at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 9 hours ago, OceanStWx said: Not sure if it was covered or not, you guys added 20+ pages while I was sleeping, but the shortwave was definitely deeper than modeled according to the 00z raobs. OUN had a height of 544 at H5, neither the GFS or Euro were that deep (and they might have been a hair fast). Sort of ... I posted a couple three brief posts around 11pm (shocking ...I know) where I mentioned how the NAM's 00z odd jog E, and the GFS's following in line ...smacked of contaminated raobs getting into the initialization... I just couldn't wait up long enough for the Diagnostic office to put out their report - which I assumed would be around 1am. Anyway, I still don't know if that was case or not, but of more importance is that the initialization of the 00z was suspect for me in general just based upon the subsequent modeling behavior. And issue that might also effect the 06z runs. What's interesting is that the RGEM and GGEM kept right on up with the previous dynamics and trended yet even more in favor of deeper impact; not sure what the status of of their initializations are and/or if they have some means to correct/smooth errors... I don't know. But it was interesting that there was no apparent influence on the CMC's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajisai Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Nam looks OK IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 I actually thought about headed down there since it will never snow here again. Unfortunately I wouldn't have a place to stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, eyewall said: I actually thought about headed down there since it will never snow here again. Unfortunately I wouldn't have a place to stay. I'm sure Diane can make room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 James has a bunk bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Thank you guys! I would love to but realistically I don't think it is feasable. I hope it is a good one for those who see it. Today is day 698 in BTV since the last warning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 Def liking james to jack over s coast hes gonna get crushed and radar is gonna crank over him from 10-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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