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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Looks like most of North GA doesn't get anything on the NAM. Not looking good.

It's the NAM at 60 plus hours. Don't sweat it. As I just posted, the trends are more important than details.

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Surface low track is in a great position but precip is just really anemic over north GA for some reason. Strange that the model showing the worst track for far north GA, the GFS being too far south, is the one giving us the most snow.

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5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

Looks like most of North GA doesn't get anything on the NAM. Not looking good.

West Georgia looking solid! haha I will take it...plus it trended better

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12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area.

Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south.

I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up.

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5 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area.

Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south.

I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up.

Your sitting pretty for sure.. If the GFS gets on board I think you should get 4 inches easily perhaps a lot more. Snow down there is fun but watch out for the crazy drivers!

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27 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I'm going with 3-6" for GSP.

my experience living my entire life in to GSP area...I'd say this will be about a 2-3" for GSP. Not complaining.

Typically, these storms that come across the TN valley and then take a nose dive, then gets itself back together off the coast...just doesn't seem to have enough moisture for our neck of the woods. Those mountains have a tremendous affect on our weather...more than most want to appreciate.

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Hope I did this right (Copy/Paste)...  Do they normally have these social media Q&As?  I've not noticed them before this...

 

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 PM EST Wed Jan 4 2017

...WINTER WEATHER SOCIAL MEDIA QUESTION AND ANSWER SESSION TO BE
HELD THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 2 TO 3 PM EST...

The National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg South
Carolina office will be holding a social media question and answer
session on Twitter and Facebook Thursday, January 5 from 2 to 3 pm
EST. During that hour, we will attempt to answer as many of your
questions as possible about the upcoming winter weather across our
region. Please tweet your questions or comments to @NWSGSP or
post or message us on our U.S. National Weather Service
Greenville-Spartanburg SC Facebook page.

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This didn't make sense from the Atlanta NWS Discussion.  8 to 1 is wet snow, not dry...

"Expect this snow, particularly across north GA to be dry in nature, and have opted to go with a 8 to 1 ratio of water equivalent to snow. Future
forecast packages may opt for an even higher ratio, producing additional snow accumulation."

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

The 2 models showing the riskiest setup are the NAM and the CMC (models with the least stream separation).  Good news is that it's the long range NAM and the CMC.  Bad new is, it's not out of the realm of possibility, though low chance.  The CMC did make a little progress in the 12z run though

I was surprised WPC liked the NAM.  Fairly good agreement between GFS/Euro/UK on separation.  I guess the good news is even the least desirable NAM gets snowfall in and around the areas. 

Come on GFS, get in the game!

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35 minutes ago, lj0109 said:

I'll have whatever CAE is drinking :drunk: (Obviously its a mistake or old map they are modifying)

C1WkRVgVQAAYbfk.jpg

Where on weather.gov/cae are you finding this map (even though it's not yet updated.)  For some reason, i'm not seeing it anywhere...

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From the RAH disco published at 2:35 this afternoon:

Bust potential: The GFS solution is very cold and further south
meaning that if it verifies the southern tier could get more than
the 1-3 inch most likely scenario. This could lead to a bust on the
low side for the NW Piedmont with that area getting less than an
inch if the moisture axis is too far south.

The ECMWF solution is further north and could lead to the opposite
scenario where temperatures are warmer across the south and a mix of
rain/sleet/snow cuts down accumulations significantly. This
northerly scenario would shift the heavier banding of snow to the
north which could lead to higher amounts in the NW Piedmont than the
1-3 inch most likely scenario.

The NAM solution is a mix of the two and may be the closest to the
actual forecast.

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More and more sites are doing those Q&A sessions, which is great for the public IMO.

 

Nate Johnson at WRAL did a facebook live earlier today and folks were getting super frustrated in the comments because he wouldn't tell an exact amount or location.  

 

One thing I want to keep an eye out is the progression of the 850 through central NC.  I think more mixing will occur until the 850 is established which may reduce totals in the triangle.  Someone mentioned the ecmwf ensembles have a more southern 850 than the op.  Trend to keep an eye on given the euro's track record with those temps.

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Wow made a great point about the sharpness of the trough and how that related to bigger totals.  Seems like it makes a big difference. What do we need to look for in future runs for the trough to sharpen up?  

Edit, gosh the NAM is aweful.  Basically a non event until it gets to the ocean. 

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1 minute ago, Trevor1621 said:

http://m.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia-beach-va/23451/daily-weather-forecast/351321?day=4 accuweather showing 8-12 for Virginia Beach as of now


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Accuweather is saying "Around a foot" for Greensboro when I know that isn't going to happen. Can't put a whole alot of trust in their totals at all.

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1 minute ago, mryanwilkes said:

Where on weather.gov/cae are you finding this map (even though it's not yet updated.)  For some reason, i'm not seeing it anywhere...

It was taken down. They sent out a tweet saying there was a mistake and a new map should be up soon.

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3 minutes ago, sarcean said:

Accuweather is saying "Around a foot" for Greensboro when I know that isn't going to happen. Can't put a whole alot of trust in their totals at all.

Weather Channel had W-S around 2-4", dropped us down to about 1-2" if we're lucky. I don't think this will hit us at all.

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8 minutes ago, SteveVa said:

12z Euro gives me 0.8" qpf at temps between 30 and 32. Verbatim 7-9 inches. EPS avg is around 3-4" for my area.

Latest NAM has me at 5", 12z GFS has about 1-2" for me but with a bullseye 50 miles to the south.

I'm getting more confident, but being in extreme SEVA you can never get your hopes up.

Im rooting for ya, Hoping to head down from northern Va to do some plowing if there is enough. Its looking like 6" is pretty doable!

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Accuweather is saying "Around a foot" for Greensboro when I know that isn't going to happen. Can't put a whole alot of trust in their totals at all.


Haha I agree 100%. I always get so hyped up for snow around here, but even if I saw everywhere/everyone saying 10000% chance of 14 inches for Virginia Beach in the back of my mind I'd just know it would end up being 1-2 inches of wet snow. FINGERS CROSSED THOUGH!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

The NAM really has me worried.

You looking at the NAM, has me worried! Kendra Kent , local fox met, going with 2+, as of now! Said could go higher, some models are showing zero snow! Keeping an eye on it!

Another concern for me, is our low is only 39 Thursday night, and high of 46 Friday!!! Per TWC local 

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2 minutes ago, bargainmusic said:

Weather Channel had W-S around 2-4", dropped us down to about 1-2" if we're lucky. I don't think this will hit us at all.

I think 1-3" for GSO, 2-4" for RDU, 3-6" along I-95 (with 6"+ along a stripe) looks like a good call at this point.  I think this could be an Elizabeth City and/or Norfolk jackpot.  If the storm spools up and bombs out, someone in NE NC/SE VA could see double-digit totals.

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