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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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Birmingham NWS just sent up another balloon. Should find out shortly if warm nose between 2500' and 8000' has eroded.

Reports of heavy sleet in Meridian, MS on Twitter.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

GFS smacks the mountains pretty good, Mt. Mitchell will like get over 15 inches with this setup and the Balsams will cash in too...

Southern Upslope areas would likely cash in very good as well. 6-7"+ for Southern Jackson, Transylvania and most of Henderson I would assume.

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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Southern Upslope areas would likely cash in very good as well. 6-7"+ for Southern Jackson, Transylvania and most of Henderson I would assume.

It's more 10-12 off the 12z gfs. It's probably over done but the nam, rgem, sref and now the gfs have over .6 inches in southern macon, jackson, and transylvania counties.

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6 minutes ago, atlweatherman said:

Looks more amped up on the latest GFS 12z run coming in. Notice the blow up of accumulations going from Miss through AL at hr 18- looks good.

GFS 12z hr 84 1.6.17.JPG

Those totals are jacked up due to IP and ZR in my opinion.

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1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

It's more 10-12 off the 12z gfs. It's probably over done but the nam, rgem, sref and now the gfs have over .6 inches in southern macon, jackson, and transylvania counties.

And with NWS liking the GFS with the blend... Yup game on

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Just now, franklin NCwx said:

It's more 10-12 off the 12z gfs. It's probably over done but the nam, rgem, sref and now the gfs have over .6 inches in southern macon, jackson, and transylvania counties.

I saw what the model said, I'm just going with what I think will be realistic for those areas. 10-12" in the Balsams and atop Mt. Pisgah is very likely.

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So the cutoff line had Beaufort County getting around 10 inches now we might not see a dusting. I'm my sure why I get excited about these things. It seems to always show snow for us and then the line moves NW. I was looking forward to it but good luck to everyone. Be safe.

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1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

850 line currently is right on the NC/SC border right through CLT and a little south of Raleigh.-2 to -3 up across the I-40 corrider.

Where the 850 line is now won't matter once this storm begins to develop and ramps up. The track of the 850 low will create big winners and losers.

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Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I saw what the model said, I'm just going with what I think will be realistic for those areas. 10-12" in the Balsams and atop Mt. Pisgah is very likely.

I gotcha. Yeah, I agree, i think it's over done too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like highlands get 12+ with that much qpf.

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1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

I gotcha. Yeah, I agree, i think it's over done too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a place like highlands get 12+ with that much qpf.

Sapphire Valley, Highlands, Cashiers, Balsam Grove, Lake Toxaway. Those areas may see a foot. I think for Franklin, Brevard, Hendersonville could all see in the 6-8" range. These areas always do go with winter storms coming out of the GOM.

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What should be all snow on left and the sleet on the right...per GFS.  Just crazy.

Screen Shot 2017-01-06 at 10.44.34 AM.png

Does anyone have soundings or total precip outputs for CLT? Gonna be a lot of rain, I'm sure.

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1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

Atlanta got screwed by the last minute trends yet again. Dissapointing...at this rate IMBY I'll be lucky to get an inch.

Yep.  I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you.

The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening.  So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. 

Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days.

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12 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

Where is moto? Gfs just dumped a foot at his house! 

LOL...Just saw that.  GFS really up ticked the main heavy QPF band along with the RGEM.  But NAM cut it big time for some reason.  Personally I would put more weight with the GFS/RGEM.  But I still feel pretty good for 3-4" at least for Dahlonega.

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2 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Yep.  I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you.

The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening.  So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. 

Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days.

Yeah the cold after the storm is what worries me. I would go on a snow chase if I knew it would melt relatively quick.

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1 minute ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Yep.  I'm in a little worse shape here ene of you.

The only thing "good" I could see for our back yards in this run is the GFS paints a rather intense band of rain overhead this evening.  So, in full weenie mode, maybe, just maybe we see a surprise dynamic cooling miracle. 

Actually considered a chase since I could damn near walk, but with the cold following this storm don't want to get stuck away from home for a couple of days.

 

Don't count on dynamic cooling to save you until after midnight at the very least. The fast SW winds at the 850 levels are going to kill you until the 850 mb low is far enough for the north winds to cool down the lower levels again. That's not projected on models until possibly even 2 AM.

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1 hour ago, Cheeznado said:

Well, damn. This looks like a few earlier GFS runs. FWIW the 12Z RPM has less than this, 2-4 across most of north GA from ATL north. Also, the cold air is really coming in, KPDK is down to 34/25. Hmmmmm.

After days of thinking this would mostly be south of us, I'm starting to hope we'll get a few inches.  You might have some good luck around here, we're a bit southeast of Ball Ground.

The bufkit at kpdk has it at 7.1" sn when I last looked.  For what that's worth. 

KPDK is still some 16-18 miles south of me, though, and over the ridge.  I have often wished we had a station a bit more central to north GA, there's nothing between KPDK and KBRA/KCHA and that's a lot of pretty fairly populated land between those three.

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'll be living vicariously in your obs thread. I'm really stoked for you folks that get hit flush. I've said multiple times over the years that I root for you guys and I hope this one closes interstates and paralyzes neighborhoods for a little while. Some may think that's a nasty thing to root for but anyone who knows me...that's how I roll. And I know it's how many of you roll too. Even a fair # of those who deny it. LOL

Mr. Chill, as long as it happens on a weekend, I say shut it ALL down.  Jan 2011 was great for that reason, it happened on a Sunday and so we were all home (for days, heh).  I only get unhappy about it when kids are on buses at 3am because nobody here ever wants to close a school or business on a weekday. :)

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