SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Ridge lowers in amplitude. 2 contour ULL, would lead to a stronger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, CaryWx said: How far does the HRRR go out? 18 hours. I believe the experimental goes out to 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 NAM isn't going to work out. Good trend for it though. Feel good about the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Yeah Wow it looks like you are right. Even though it hasn't kicked out it has def trended east each run today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: NAM isn't going to work out. Good trend for it though. Feel good about the GFS. Nope doesn't make it but moving in the right direction. Would be nice to have a consistent run from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 does the NAM show the thursday threat at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: does the NAM show the thursday threat at all? It does on Pivotal Weather but low humidity in the upper layers is a concern. Might be a lot of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: does the NAM show the thursday threat at all? No, it doesn't quite get in range (precip starts at 00z (7 PM) on the 18z GFS, but the NAM ends 12z Thursday). Also, Tropicaltidbits updated their simulated radar outputs for mesoscale models a few days ago so that models like the NAM don't show a ton of virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 No, it doesn't quite get in range (precip starts at 00z (7 PM) on the 18z GFS, but the NAM ends 12z Thursday). Also, Tropicaltidbits updated their simulated radar outputs for mesoscale models a few days ago so that models like the NAM don't show a ton of virga.It's there at 500mb, would likely be a repeat of the 18z GFS if it played out...virtually identical with the first wave it seems. It will start showing up with tomorrow's runs on the Ptype mapsSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 The one model that has yet to have a run with the Pac wave kicking out is the UKMet, which was the model that led the way with digging the polar jet S/SE and driving more cold air in place mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, Jon said: It's there at 500mb, would likely be a repeat of the 18z GFS if it played out...virtually identical with the first wave it seems. It will start showing up with tomorrow's runs on the Ptype maps Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Para NAM looks close to GFS for both wave 1 and 2....FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
malak05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Well another 2 big runs tonight and a few days of getting a better idea of if this will be or not be something... gonna be some long nights ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS rollin', let's bring home the big one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Brad P is live on facebook. Basically called the GFS crazy and said that first snow on Thursday was extremely weird and makes him give pause to that model. He also said he doesn't look at deterministic models and prefers the ensembles...particularly EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS rollin', let's bring home the big one! It can't have an entirely new solution...it just can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Brad P is live on facebook. Basically called the GFS crazy and said that first snow on Thursday was extremely weird and makes him give pause to that model. He also said he doesn't look at deterministic models and prefers the ensembles...particularly EURO. Brad is a really good Met. I like the guy... However he can be a bit too conservative when it comes to forecasting snow in Charlotte. On the flip side, if he does forecast snow, you can pretty much count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I bet it will be similar. More worried about the Euro. It's consistently high and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Pretty much identical out to 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, SnowNiner said: I bet it will be similar. More worried about the Euro. It's consistently high and dry. Models will converge on a solution, it may or may not be what we want to see, but I am really enjoying the ride. Heck of a lot better than last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 I'm just worried that with everyone saying this will be a front loaded winter, that if we don't cash in the next 2 weeks we are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 GFS trended west with that ULL West of Oregon and Washington. Run hasn't finished, lets see, maybe something changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Only real change is slightly more ridging between digging trough and piece of energy for wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RubiksDestroyer Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: GFS trended west with that ULL West of Oregon and Washington. Run hasn't finished, lets see, maybe something changes. Technically it did, but when you consider the difference between the 00z/18z and today's 12z run, that's hardly much of a difference overall. EDIT: The difference is more noticeable at 78 now... Still way better than the 12z, but you're right actually.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm just worried that with everyone saying this will be a front loaded winter, that if we don't cash in the next 2 weeks we are done. "Everyone"? Not me. But then who am I but a long time hobbyist who studies, has posted since early October and am sticking with - an AN Dec, Normal Jan (with a chance of one big blast around or after the 15th), wet and cool Feb, with summer starting in March (all for down this way, but extrapolate further north). This is based on my own analysis (mostly tropics this year and past set ups) and I would not take it to Kroeger, Publix, Ingles or BiLo and try to spend these thoughts! But I'll share them like pennies in a parking lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Shortwave dropping down into the Gulf of Alaska at 84 should kick the Oregon Coast Pac wave out, but we'll see...otherwise, cold press looks fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Appreciate the play by play guys. Great insight on what's shown....one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 looks to still have out thurs wave, light snow across nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Just now, SnowNiner said: Appreciate the play by play guys. Great insight on what's shown....one way or another. Yeah, grit and wow and pack! Great jobs! Great pbp's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Looking good so far at 96. Wave is moving and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 2, 2017 Share Posted January 2, 2017 Out to 99hr, wave 1 produced snow over nc once again. Shortwave starting to dig *yikes at that auto correct* and will be caught, most likely another repeat close to the 18z run. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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