packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Wow said: Jan 88 still my analog here for the Jan 7-8 event (coincidentally exactly 29 years ago from that date): Jan 7, 1988: And the top 5h analog is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, GaStorm said: Hope that ZR gets replaced with IP. Would be really bad if that scenario played out. The northern half of that area would surely be IP. I had four inches of IP from. The Feb 13 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Also looks like this track is a good one based on big storms for NC according to RaleighWX's data. Would be great to hear from him and Matthew East on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 The biggest difference with this run was the 18z actually found a pretty robust piece of energy to play with vs. 12z, which didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, J.C. said: The northern half of that area would surely be IP. I had four inches of IP from. The Feb 13 storm. True. My area should be good with more snow than ice if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 20 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nice...HP coast to coast. That is crazy...still 6 days away though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Temps a little borderline near me! Need the CMC cold! Dude nw of 85 would be golden in this set up...i promise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GlaringSun Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looks real nice for ATL I'm not sold yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: And the top 5h analog is... pretty hilarious Pack, it's the New Year's Day hungover 18z run of the GFS....we get a snowstorm and a top analog to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: And the top 5h analog is... Love that Jan 2000 is one of the top analogs too.. by the way, what website is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: pretty hilarious Pack, it's the New Year's Day hungover 18z run of the GFS....we get a snowstorm and a top analog to boot Close to what the Op euro spit out but just a little better ridging, with a strong piece of energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, oconeexman said: Dude nw of 85 would be golden in this set up...i promise! Good for you, bad for me! im south of 85! I remember the mega snowstorm in February of 13 or 14, with the insane 20" euro clown maps, a day or 2 out, and warm nose won out and I got flurries mixed with an inch of sleet! Painful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, ajr said: Love that Jan 2000 is one of the top analogs too.. by the way, what website is that? Here you go... http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Didn't even see the day 4-5 first snow on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Didn't even see the day 4-5 first snow on the GFS... Looks like y'all are about to lose that south!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, odell.moton said: What part of sc are you in Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Simpsonville. last years big storm, they got about 3-4" in Travelers rest, by like 10 AM, I was waiting on changeover to sleet and ZR, until about 1:30 pm, was very spotty and finished with a lucky snowband, and picked up 1/2 inch! Warm nose is real and sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks like y'all are about to lose that south!? I just want to see a flake or two to deem this a victory. I am sure FAY to CAE will jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 31 minutes ago, Wow said: Jan 88 still my analog here for the Jan 7-8 event (coincidentally exactly 29 years ago from that date): Jan 7, 1988: That looks like it wan't a bad event. Widespread heavy snow everywhere. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter_wx/database_details.php?e=119 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I'm more concerned with cold air and this storm trending too far north than I am a complete whiff at this point. When the GFS has a storm in the 5/6 day range, it is almost always too weak/suppressed with it. We just need the GFS to be correct in that the shortwave does in fact kick out and move East. Here's to hoping the 00z Models all show that shortwave dropping down and progressing east over the weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 18z GEFS much improved.. trended with the operational valid 18z Jan 7: Prev run barely registered any kind of SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: 18z GEFS much improved.. trended with the operational Huge improvement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, burrel2 said: I'm more concerned with cold air and this storm trending too far north than I am a complete whiff at this point. Thinking back on the modeling, the UKMet led the charge with bringing down the needed northern stream cold press, with all other models following. That was always #1 for having any of these chances and it has to hold going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 here the ens without the possible system after. Also, please remember this is the 18z. Before we get excited lets wait for the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: 18z GEFS much improved.. trended with the operational valid 18z Jan 7: Prev run barely registered any kind of SLP What's the 2nd blue line, behind the 850 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 What's the 2nd blue line, behind the 850 line?I think it's the -10 at 850, please correct me if I'm wrong. Higher ratios behind that line. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: The 18z is just as reliable as any other GFS run, in this case the 18z is technically more reliable due to model agreement with the CMC and Euro 18z doesn't have any new balloon data. 0 and 12z does. it's basically a continuation of the 12z with new plane and surface data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, SN_Lover said: 18z doesn't have any new balloon data. 0 and 12z does. it's basically a continuation of the 12z with new plane and surface data. Which would make it more valid than the 12z, considering it contains additional newer data. 00z will be even better of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12z GFS Parallel does something new and brings the s/w along further north and than does a late phase ala Jan 2000 but further north on the 9th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12z para GFS, says take your rain on Sunday, and like it! Hopefully is as bad as everyone says!!?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: 12z para GFS, says take your rain on Sunday, and like it! Hopefully is as bad as everyone says!!?? New England gets snow, therefore it must be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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