packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: So CMC doesn't have the western ridge, but gives us the wave 2 storm!? 2 minutes ago, Wow said: This is the complexity right there. That NW s/w. What the Canadian shows is exactly what yesterday's 0z GFS showed. We want that piece to not phase into the N Pac ULL. Once the W ridge builds, we don't have our s/w diving into the SW and can only hope for some light stuff from the first wave dropping in from the polar jet. The Euro had some of the energy coming down but was weak and got sheared out. The UK even has a taller fully connected to EPO ridge at 84 hours (+PNA). I don't recall something like a pac ridge being modeled so different at 84 hours by the globals. Looks like the GEFS has a more muted ridge so would guess it's a split among the members. Though less ridge then the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Another problem without the ridge is that we better keep the atlantic blocking or we will have temp issues and would probably take people south of here out of it...IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Here are the latest runs of the Euro and Canadian which do drop the s/w into the Southwest, but both keep it at a severely positive tilt and don't really wrap up the energy so it loses to the polar jet streaking overhead.. Canadian less so, so it does pull up some precip. But it's so close to yesterday's 0z GFS run. 12z Canadian 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 14 minutes ago, packbacker said: Another problem without the ridge is that we better keep the atlantic blocking or we will have temp issues and would probably take people south of here out of it...IMO. We got all kinds of problems! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GEFS doesn't look half bad. Still a lot of wildly different solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiftMania Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Anyone see the 6z para GFS? Looks crazy good. Not the best solution for all but getting there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 27 minutes ago, Met1985 said: We got all kinds of problems! We got 99 problems, but cold ain't one!! ( as of Now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 GEFS mean snowfall days 5-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, packbacker said: GEFS mean snowfall days 5-8 That's really not that shabby! Is it from the one Thursday wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 I say Euro comes in like the CMC run from today! 5+ pages in 10 minutes! New Years miracle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 hours ago, ncjoaquin said: Dude. We had our 8th biggest snow ever in January of this last year, less than a year ago. 13.4 inches in January of 2016. We had our 9th biggest snow in January 2010. It has not been THAT bad. ( and I grew up in the 60's and 70's also) Just saying not quite from what I remember from the late 50's and sixties, snow is a lot harder to come by here now, I think most would agree with me, and yes you will get a decent snow every now and then but not like the old days, every week seems like it would snow or a very good chance of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 12z Euro isn't following the GFS. Got the wave on shore at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Alright it's 12z Sun and time for kickoff, so let the game begin. Hope someone has pbp on Euro. We know what the pattern is going to be now and the players, 2 waves. We also know what we are rooting for and against. So it should start getting resolved over the next few model cycles. Got a chance to score a big one, the first one and also a whiff. But we have a realistic chance prime climo and that's all we can ask for. No one on here just a week ago Christmas day would have thought on New years we would be serious chasing a snow event for the 1St week of Jan, let alone 2. So we've already won half the battle and need to be gratefull we aren't chasing 10+ day patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z Euro isn't following the GFS. Got the wave on shore at 72 Quicker, maybe more separation, let the 2nd wave develop! Hopefully, we need a good Euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z Euro isn't following the GFS. Got the wave on shore at 72 Looks like the CMC....be nice if it showed a little wave day 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro coming in looks like a mix of the 2 camps. It has the first wave but northern stream doesn't dig as much SE, so it has light snow farther northwest in TN, W NC, into VA. Hard to say if it will have anything left with a second wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Weak low in the gulf hour 126 but energy is strung out. To be honest, not the worst spot to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro looks good at 120. Def wave over the SW with room to consolidate. The N plains wave is well futher east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, packbacker said: Weak low in the gulf hour 126 but energy is strung out. To be honest, not the worst spot to be in. Closer to a good outcome here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Euro looks to be setting up to show us how to miss out on both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Wow said: Closer to a good outcome here. Low over Jacksonville 135-138, probably wide right but better/closer then 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Euro looks to be setting up to show us how to miss out on both events. Dr. No is in the house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlatLander48 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Low over Jacksonville 135-138, probably wide right but better/closer then 0z. South and/or east is always good at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, Poimen said: Dr. No is in the house! Yep. When was the last time we actually had a good Euro run? How is the cold air looking for the second squashed non-event? Do we at least have that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Sfc low moves across N FL and then off to the NE. some light snow in NC/SC....very light, but this is the setup we should shoot for overall...with expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Sfc low moves across N FL and then off to the NE. Light some light snow in NC/SC....very light, but this is the setup we should shoot for overall...with expectations low. The wave is there, just needs a little more separation between it and the PV. Very close, feeling good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: The wave is there, just needs a little more separation between it and the PV. Very close, feeling good. So track looks good but moisture starved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Looks like we also need to watch out for a 3rd shot at wintery precp in the 8 to 10 day timeframe for CAD/ICE. GFS has been showing this threat for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 Congrats, Nags Head! Nice little snowfall for far E NC on this run. OH so close. Definitely a tick in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 1, 2017 Share Posted January 1, 2017 7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Euro looks to be setting up to show us how to miss out on both events. Take all this negativity crap to the panic room, Shetley! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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