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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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I wouldn't be surprised to see some really amped runs of the HRRR and RAP which are warm and put the bullseye in the mountains in the closing hours before the storm.  These models tend to be really amped in theIr "long" range, so I wouldn't worry about it, though.

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1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said:

Anybody see the dreaded warm nose, near GSP? Would we sleet for awhile? I'm worried about ground temps too! Sitting at 47, with thick cloud cover! Only supposed T to get to 39 tonight!

I know mack... that warm nose really concerns me as well. Just got through watching the Nizz on the weather channel they had our accumulation in western upstate down to 2 inches.... Not changing over until around midnight or so. I know some of the moderators on here the last couple of days were thinking (or hoping) that it would not be as stout and might not be that big of an issue.

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4 minutes ago, NorthernUpstateSC said:

I know mack... that warm nose really concerns me as well. Just got through watching the Nizz on the weather channel they had our accumulation in western upstate down to 2 inches.... Not changing over until around midnight or so. I know some of the moderators on here the last couple of days were thinking (or hoping) that it would not be as stout and might not be that big of an issue.

I think we will know a lot more right up till the event tomorrow. When we start watching radar returns and sfc temps.

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Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon?

 

Also some light blue returns showing up on radar over northern AL though I don't think there is any ground truth.

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4 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

"It's now time!!!!"

 

 

 

edit: might be time for an observation thread.

 
 
 

In the spirit of now time let's make an effort to stay on topic and read before posting.  Up to this point, 1276 posts have been deleted from this thread by your friendly overworked moderators. It would be nice if that would slow down a bit.

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3 minutes ago, TiltedStorm said:

I think we will know a lot more right up till the event tomorrow. When we start watching radar returns and sfc temps.

I think it was lookout that said yesterday got to have a NE flow of cold air and not the cold coming up and over the mountains and downsloping that causes the warm air bubble... Lets hope a good stiff NE breeze kicks in tomorrow...

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1 minute ago, sakau2007 said:

Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon?

Flurries have been reported in Hamilton and Winfield per JP Dice...

 

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4 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

Is the cold air getting here sooner than forecasted? Nashville is already at 29, Florence, AL (NW corner of the state) is at 34 and Cullman, AL (about 50 miles north of Birmingham) is down to 38. Birmingham is sitting at 47 but the subfreezing temps look like they will invade northern Alabama fairly soon?

 

Also some light blue returns showing up on radar over northern AL though I don't think there is any ground truth.

Yeah, I heard they are getting reports.  T

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29 minutes ago, superjames1992 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see some really amped runs of the HRRR and RAP which are warm and put the bullseye in the mountains in the closing hours before the storm.  These models tend to be really amped in theIr "long" range, so I wouldn't worry about it, though.

I'm using the RAP to verify the initializations of the regional and global models.

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Did anyone else notice that the coastal low on 18z was closer to coast than the 12z at the same time on GFS? 

 

 


Yes, but the precip shield did not reflect it. I would imagine future runs, if low is in similar location, will show a more expansive precip shield to the NW


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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37 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

SW is really digging currently in CA. This system might be a doozy. 

Can you link the map you're looking at? I don't know where to find a 500mb map showing current conditions 

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6 minutes ago, AirNelson39 said:


Yes, but the precip shield did not reflect it. I would imagine future runs, if low is in similar location, will show a more expansive precip shield to the NW


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

That is my thinking it maybe better back to the west just wait till next run 

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1 hour ago, Wow said:

Some good news on the ICON is it moved heavier precip back NW, although you can see some lee side minimums show up

 

 

As a member of the LEE side crew.. This is a constant battle. 

5 minutes ago, HKY1894 said:

Can you link the map you're looking at? I don't know where to find a 500mb map showing current conditions 

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19

Use the top tab to toggle 

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2 hours ago, DopplerWx said:

goodness, gefs is a thing of beauty. 

FL4cc7i.jpg

Ift he GFS is wrong it is epically wrong, thats just insane agreement...has anyone ever seen a panel like that before for NC......E15 needs to be the correct one....sticking to my 6-12" call for MBY....if we get mixing issues then "only" 6" if we keep that mixing at bay then closer to 12"...

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4 minutes ago, ncstatered21 said:

Is anyone noticing temperatures tonight in the RDU area? Temperatures looking lower than forecasted from earlier today. This can only help tomorrow. No?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Wont really matter that much the cold tomorrow is from a different source, it will help though by cooling surfaces etc.....but it wont make or break anything with the main event Sat.....

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Wave definitely looks healthy on the map you guys linked, gonna try to see if the models are initializing correctly, minor differences have huge implications one way or another 

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