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Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017


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1 minute ago, LovingGulfLows said:

 

Athens is rain at hour 36, then transitions to all snow by hour 39 based on 18z NAM. Based on radar sim. it's pretty heavy as well so it's unlikely there will be much sleet in the transition from rain to snow.

Actually athens is one of the areas i'm talking about here..especially north/northeast of athens...where it's colder aloft.   It's best not to go by the radar simulation for precip types..there are all sorts of flaws with that.... Soundings are a lot better way of forecasting precip types. The ewl is deeper in athens than atlanta on the nam...below is the 33 hour nam.. but it's still so close a 1c difference aloft can change everything. Also keep in mind there is a very sharp gradient temp wise aloft as you head north so places like commerce or even nicholson could be seeing heavy sleet, or even snow, while athens is rain or sleet. Throw in the fact rates could determine types too... It's almost impossible to say with any certainty right now and it's more or less going to be a nowcasting thing. 

Date: 33 hour NAM valid 3Z SAT  7 JAN 17
Station: 33.95,-83.32
Latitude:   33.95
Longitude: -83.32
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   157                                                                 
SFC  993   217   2.3   1.5  94  0.8   1.9  26   6 276.0 276.7 275.5 287.6  4.28
  2  950   569  -0.4  -0.7  98  0.3  -0.5  48  18 276.8 277.4 275.2 287.3  3.83
  3  900  1001  -1.1  -1.4  98  0.3  -1.2  77  17 280.4 281.0 277.2 291.1  3.84
  4  850  1458   0.4   0.1  98  0.3   0.3 238   8 286.6 287.4 281.1 299.5  4.54
  5  800  1947   2.5   2.2  98  0.3   2.3 218  28 293.8 294.8 285.4 310.1  5.60
  6  750  2468   0.5   0.1  97  0.4   0.3 238  33 297.1 298.1 286.2 312.4  5.14
  7  700  3020  -1.6  -2.0  97  0.4  -1.8 250  44 300.7 301.6 287.1 315.0  4.73
  8  650  3609  -3.7  -4.0  98  0.3  -3.8 246  57 304.8 305.6 288.2 318.2  4.38

 

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