LovingGulfLows Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 7 minutes ago, farleydawg79 said: Do you think would apply for Athens also? Athens is rain at hour 36, then transitions to all snow by hour 39 based on 18z NAM. Based on radar sim. it's pretty heavy as well so it's unlikely there will be much sleet in the transition from rain to snow because of the dynamic cooling process in the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: 18z RGEM argues it's already snowing here by 18z tomorrow. Most (maybe all, I don't know) prefer the RGEM to NAM....I haven't seen what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, griteater said: Regarding the Euro Ens Mean....h5 showed a similar move as the Op to have less stream separation...and while it has more snow than the Op back thru Atlanta, it had less than it's previous run. The footprint of the snow on the mean was tighter. Bottom line, less stream separation is a riskier play and not the direction we want to go in. NE NC seems to get hit regardless, so probably fine there, but more risky as you go back SW As of 3:45, GSP has CLT at 6" as "most likely" and 9 " as "potential". Their forecast discussion is not out yet but it's got to be heavily weighting the GFS/UKMET stream separation. I know though, it's making me nervous. Hopefully EURO caves tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, PackGrad05 said: When do the euro ensembles run? What do they say? As long as the NAM is the only one saying that solution, it is an outlier. Lot of talk on it in the thread already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, lilj4425 said: If this thing continues to trend north, we'll get nothing but a cold miserable rain. Yea lets hope it settles back down surprised GSP already has warnings out. They are usually conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Most (maybe all, I don't know) prefer the RGEM to NAM....I haven't seen what it shows Pack said it was super amped in the other thread. I haven't seen it though. Sounds awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: Most (maybe all, I don't know) prefer the RGEM to NAM....I haven't seen what it shows i think you'll like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 12z WRF is horrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM looks like at least 10-12 hours of moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 WPC Heavy Snow Discussion if you are interested http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Pack said it was super amped in the other thread. I haven't seen it though. Sounds awesome. Why is he hiding somewhere else? He must be getting queasy close to go time. RGM looks good for us per QC pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 5 minutes ago, SnowNiner said: As of 3:45, GSP has CLT at 6" as "most likely" and 9 " as "potential". Their forecast discussion is not out yet but it's got to be heavily weighting the GFS/UKMET stream separation. I know though, it's making me nervous. Hopefully EURO caves tonight. Same here to your west at KQFD with 5 likely and 9 potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Why is he hiding somewhere else? He must be getting queasy close to go time. RGM looks good for us per QC pic Yeah looks good. Going to need to see the next frame to confirm, though. Pack had some lame excuse about meetings or something. And where is Jon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah looks good. Going to need to see the next frame to confirm, though. Pack had some lame excuse about meetings or something. And where is Jon? ice doesnt make it farther north than say southern pines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah looks good. Going to need to see the next frame to confirm, though. Pack had some lame excuse about meetings or something. And where is Jon? Absolutely no excuse to be missing out right now. This is more important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, griteater said: Why is he hiding somewhere else? He must be getting queasy close to go time. RGM looks good for us per QC pic 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Yeah looks good. Going to need to see the next frame to confirm, though. Pack had some lame excuse about meetings or something. And where is Jon? Some of us have this great thing called a job like yours truly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 RGEM PTYPE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: ice doesnt make it farther north than say southern pines. Thanks! 1 minute ago, Wow said: Absolutely no excuse to be missing out right now. This is more important! Exactly right. Priorities man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Here is the NAM with the ZR/sleet left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: RGEM PTYPE That's actually really good. I mean, I fully expect my part of the county to see some pingers, because that's how we roll, but the RGEM is pretty much keeping the R/S line in the same area as previous runs...just eyeballing it, since I don't have the county breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Looks like RGEM/Euro are on top of each other and NAM is 30-40 miles NW and slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Here is the NAM with the ZR/sleet left out. 4.8 inches? I'll take it. Talk about threading a needle though. Oh and here comes the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miller Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, Cheeznado said: Here is the NAM with the ZR/sleet left out. Looks great for me in Greenville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 Just now, Cold Rain said: That's actually really good. I mean, I fully expect my part of the county to see some pingers, because that's how we roll, but the RGEM is pretty much keeping the R/S line in the same area as previous runs...just eyeballing it, since I don't have the county breakdown. It was actually colder then 12z run and much higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: It was actually colder then 12z run and much higher QPF. Ok, we'll call that a trend and be done for the day. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Looks like RGEM/Euro are on top of each other and NAM is 30-40 miles NW and slower. RGEM to me looks more expansive NW. Latest EURO had the same shape but a much narrower precip field and more east IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS out to 15 - looks like it has maybe a little more stream separation (slight), cold looks fine, heights look fine in Ohio Valley, wave looks fine in 4 corners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 50 minutes ago, Wow said: The NAM trend at 24 hrs. Keeps backing the wave southwest. That is a good thing? I would think so. Looks like it is digging, however, we do not want this bad boy TOO AMPED up on ROID RAGE. The RN/SN line is creeping DANGEROUSLY close to our areas, ALTHOUGH, I kind of like this setup because dynamical cooling can win out, UNLESS it is ip? The BUFKIT data will be interesting for our areas on this run. Have you seen it yet? Thanks JWOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 5, 2017 Share Posted January 5, 2017 GFS to 15, almost no difference with the vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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