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StoneColdWeatherAustin

Winter Storm 1/6 - 1/8, 2017

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As I recall, it was the NAM that first sniffed out the BL temp problems that hurt Wake County in last January's storm when it was 36 hours out.  Probably a good model to pay attention to from that regard.

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850-700 mb thicknesses look a bit sketchy on the NAM for some areas.  156 dm at hr 39 at RDU, though it crashes to  a more reasonable number in the following few hours.

But it's the overamped, warm NAM...though the NAM is pretty good at finding warm noses in these situations, so you never know.

1008ish mb surface low a little off Hatteras at hr 45.  Nice run for WNC, for sure.  The I-85 corridor looks nice.

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If I was a professional met, I'd continue to be conservative given the NAM's trend and knowing climo.  That's probably why a lot of places are hesitant to include the big numbers...  I'm interesting to read RAH's afternoon discussion.  They have continued to err on the side of caution, with good reason.

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10 minutes ago, Wow said:

NAM is sharper with the trough.  Yay.

Very good news.. 

9 minutes ago, beanskip said:
 

No doubt. Love the blend they are using. 

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I'm not surprised at all that it was this amped considering the SREF numbers.. remember the NAMs bias is to overamp storms at this range.. I wouldnt freak out too bad since the EURO held serve for Triangle areas

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Just now, Poimen said:

LP near ILM at 42. 

And that normally means a really good storm for us in the Triad.   I have to believe the NAM is a little overdone on precip totals, and a little too warm though.  I do think climatology is starting to play a bigger role... seems like when we started Temps weren't an issue for hardly anyone on the board... and as the runs go by, the fact that we're in the south starts to become evident. 

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Just now, WXinCanton said:

All the models are waffling, and the GFS has been the most consistent by far.

Correct. But will it hold serve at 18Z????

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2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

The RPM, which has been totally anemic all along, now has 1-2" for Atlanta. Baby steps.....

The one period I'd watch your area is 09-16Z.  The stronger that vort is as it drops in the more likely some sort of snow may break out in that window.  The UKMET/Euro show that and the 18Z NAM shows it from 06-10Z

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