bluewave Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 The EPS weeklies are showing a pretty mild January pattern coming up. They transition to a +EPO pattern right through January 25th. GEFS and CMC ensembles show the same exact pattern developing right through their 15 day runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 35 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies are showing a pretty mild January pattern coming up. They transition to a +EPO pattern right through January 25th. GEFS and CMC ensembles show the same exact pattern developing right through their 15 day runs. seems to be our winter theme so far, 10-15 days of warmth with periodic cold mixed in...but the warmth wins the battle.....hopefully we can get snow out of the cold periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: seems to be our winter theme so far, 10-15 days of warmth with periodic cold mixed in...but the warmth wins the battle.....hopefully we can get snow out of the cold periods. It will be interesting to see if we can get into more of a +PNA/-EPO after January 25th into February like the weeklies are still hinting at. But before then, this is pretty much par for the course in a La Nina pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It will be interesting to see if we can get into more of a +PNA/-EPO after the 25th in February like the weeklies are still hinting at. also the so far elusive -AO and -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 49 minutes ago, bluewave said: The EPS weeklies are showing a pretty mild January pattern coming up. They transition to a +EPO pattern right through January 25th. GEFS and CMC ensembles show the same exact pattern developing right through their 15 day runs. The torch was well modeled to come back after this 4 day transient cold shot, we were +9 before the shot...will go back down to +1 to +2 before the warm pattern sets back in. I am liking my +2 to +4 call for JAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: also the so far elusive -AO and -NAO The record AO reversal in November really set the stage for the pattern we remain in through today. These extreme AO swings from one state to the other have become more common. The record AO reversal in the other direction last January saved the winter for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The record AO reversal in November really set the stage for the pattern we remain in through today. These extreme AO swings from one state to the other have become more common. The record AO reversal in the other direction last January saved the winter for us. 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: The second warmest winter in 150 years and we call that saved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 15 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The second warmest winter in 150 years and we call that saved? It was one of my best winters of the 2010's so far in terms of the biggest snowstorm and coldest day since January 1994. I will gladly go +13 every December if you can promise me a blizzard like that later in the season. Let's face it, shorter bursts of cold and snow are becoming more common. We just need to make the most of the cold and snow when we get it. November to April snows like 95-96 are very tough to replicate in this warmer climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: The second warmest winter in 150 years and we call that saved? Especially for those who missed out on the HECS and wound up with a near record low snowfall on top of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: I will gladly go +13 every December if you can promise me a blizzard like that later in the season. It's an interesting question. I wouldn't want another +13 DJF month no matter what the other two offered, but your point about less frequent and shorter duration cold/snowy periods of late is fact. Wonder if the summer mongers would take a -13 July to get epic boomers and heat in august. Lets hope the PNA can help give us a solid late Jan into feb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 23 minutes ago, Snowshack said: It's an interesting question. I wouldn't want another +13 DJF month no matter what the other two offered, but your point about less frequent and shorter duration cold/snowy periods of late is fact. Wonder if the summer mongers would take a -13 July to get epic boomers and heat in august. Lets hope the PNA can help give us a solid late Jan into feb! It will be interesting to see if the weeklies are onto something with the more +PNA/-EPO pattern after January 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 I intend to write something more detailed later today about the direction I think the remainder of meteorological winter is headed. The idea for a small window of 5-7 days with cold and light snow threats appears to be working out. January 11th and beyond continues to look unconducive, and for a period, almost as bad as it gets insofar as the hemispheric regime. There may be a thread the needle opportunity, but it's hostile for the coast, especially coastal SNE southward. Warmer than normal temps with a blowtorch interval is likely. The question now becomes: do we run the abysmal pattern right through the end of meteorological winter, or will there be an appreciable shift such that we actually enter a sustained propitious pattern for late Jan-feb, unlike the winter thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 What a torch on the GFS starting the middle of next week. Multiple days with highs in the upper 50's possible to near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: What a torch on the GFS starting the middle of next week. Multiple days with highs in the upper 50's possible to near 60. I mean if it's not gonna snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 A large portion of Suffolk County will be nearing or exceeding 10" of snow for the season by tomorrow evening. I will admit that i did not expect this period to produce based on the -PNA and the progressive flow, but i was wrong. The brief PNA spike at the right time allowed for the trough to amplify just enough for some of the area to see decent snowfall. Let's hope we get another window of opportunity later in the winter. In the meantime, let's torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: A large portion of Suffolk County will be nearing or exceeding 10" of snow for the season by tomorrow evening. I will admit that i did not expect this period to produce based on the -PNA and the progressive flow, but i was wrong. The brief PNA spike at the right time allowed for the trough to amplify just enough for some of the area to see decent snowfall. Let's hope we get another window of opportunity later in the winter. In the meantime, let's torch. If not, NYC is gonna be looking at one of our lower seasonal snowfalls on record. I think the park is still less than 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 6, 2017 Author Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: If not, NYC is gonna be looking at one of our lower seasonal snowfalls on record. I think the park is still less than 5". Yeah they're at 4" YTD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 1 minute ago, pazzo83 said: If not, NYC is gonna be looking at one of our lower seasonal snowfalls on record. I think the park is still less than 5". February is always a wild card though. Doesnt take much to pop a decent event in February, even in a bad pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 6, 2017 Share Posted January 6, 2017 Just now, psv88 said: February is always a wild card though. Doesnt take much to pop a decent event in February, even in a bad pattern. c.f. Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 For the next 16 days, the temperature at 850mb. fails to go BN on every day (-6C) and fails to even get below 0C on 13 of them. Last days of the month are the only hope. Meanwhile enjoying what could have been a near blizzard like Jan. 13, 1964. My temp. is near 20 and it is quite breezy, but just moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 the 2010's were averaging 17.7" of snow in January...2017 is trying to keep up...The ao forecast is still a good one but each day the negative gets smaller...If it does go negative we could be following something 7-10 days down the road...snow like this melts fast in the sun so enjoy it while it's here...I still think late Feb or March will deliver... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: For the next 16 days, the temperature at 850mb. fails to go BN on every day (-6C) and fails to even get below 0C on 13 of them. Last days of the month are the only hope. Meanwhile enjoying what could have been a near blizzard like Jan. 13, 1964. My temp. is near 20 and it is quite breezy, but just moderate snow. Like the models are going to be right that far out when they have trouble for anything more than 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 2 hours ago, uncle W said: the 2010's were averaging 17.7" of snow in January...2017 is trying to keep up...The ao forecast is still a good one but each day the negative gets smaller...If it does go negative we could be following something 7-10 days down the road...snow like this melts fast in the sun so enjoy it while it's here...I still think late Feb or March will deliver... We continue to do well in the snowfall department with just brief cold intervals like we are in today and back in mid-December. Maximization of what little cold we have had since last winter has worked out for us. Pattern should rebound back to mild again this week. But some more flakes may try to sneak in with some luck 7-10 days with the big high sliding across from the north. Would be nice if the advertised +PNA/-EPO materializes after January 25th with more snow and cold potential into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 7, 2017 Share Posted January 7, 2017 On 1/6/2017 at 11:52 AM, pazzo83 said: If not, NYC is gonna be looking at one of our lower seasonal snowfalls on record. I think the park is still less than 5". Not anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 5 hours ago, uncle W said: the 2010's were averaging 17.7" of snow in January...2017 is trying to keep up...The ao forecast is still a good one but each day the negative gets smaller...If it does go negative we could be following something 7-10 days down the road...snow like this melts fast in the sun so enjoy it while it's here...I still think late Feb or March will deliver... I continue to feel so spoiled. I grew up in the 90s and, with the obvious exception of '96, I just became accustomed to the notion that it didn't snow on LI. The 2000s have been awesome, on the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 1 minute ago, Eduardo said: I continue to feel so spoiled. I grew up in the 90s and, with the obvious exception of '96, I just became accustomed to the notion that it didn't snow on LI. The 2000s have been awesome, on the whole. long Island usually does better in cold snowstorms and snowfalls that are to far east for the city... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 17 minutes ago, Eduardo said: I continue to feel so spoiled. I grew up in the 90s and, with the obvious exception of '96, I just became accustomed to the notion that it didn't snow on LI. The 2000s have been awesome, on the whole. 93-94 was pretty good too, and a nice appetizer for 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Note: NYC is now AN snowfall for the season so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 Although the upcoming period could be bleak, I see something that could be a little encouraging. The GFS, Euro, and their ensembles see large amounts of strong HP diving into eastern Canada next weekend. If a weak piece of energy undercuts the HP, there could be the threat for an overrunning event. Fresh cold would be supplied. The 12z Para GFS shows what could happen in such a scenario. I am fully aware that this setup could look completely different in a few days (or even sooner), but it's the only interesting setup for what could be a while. 18z GFS 18z GEFS 12z Euro 12z EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted January 8, 2017 Share Posted January 8, 2017 3 hours ago, Eduardo said: I continue to feel so spoiled. I grew up in the 90s and, with the obvious exception of '96, I just became accustomed to the notion that it didn't snow on LI. The 2000s have been awesome, on the whole. Were you alive for the winter of 93-94? It was almost as good as 95-96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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