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buckeyefan1

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2017

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18 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Webber has a good write up today about pattern change last week of month:


[Image: eps_z500a_noram_61-1024x768.png]

[Image: gefs_z500a_noram_61-1024x768.png]
 

What did he say?   His winter forecast is a blowtorch for Feb.  The global ensembles are showing what the weeklies first step was....the Canada ridge retrograde west to pop the west coast ridge and force aleutian low with trough in east.  Or does it collapse and we go back to the dominate pattern so far this winter....-PNA with SER. I know which way I am leaning.    Regardless a shot of atleast couple days BN end of Jan. 

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13 minutes ago, packbacker said:

What did he say?   His winter forecast is a blowtorch for Feb.  The global ensembles are showing what the weeklies first step was....the Canada ridge retrograde west to pop the west coast ridge and force aleutian low with trough in east.  Or does it collapse and we go back to the dominate pattern so far this winter....-PNA with SER. I know which way I am leaning.    Regardless a shot of atleast couple days BN end of Jan. 

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

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2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

Thanks...didn't know he posted anymore and never heard of that forum.  If I go there I assume I will see the usuals including RainCold!

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12 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

Will and Scott had mentioned some of this in the NE thread. I don't have wxbell this year (didn't want to jinx us) so I don't have the 11-15 euro ensembles but the gefs and cmc ensembles show this. 

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Throwing out a few sources that I like for long range stuff...these guys go beyond model interpretation and use things like mountain torque, global wind oscillation, atmospheric angular momentum, tropical forcing, etc. as basis for their ideas.  Also, they are unbiased regarding cold/warm ideas.

Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello on Twitter) - most are aware of Anthony (former Met poster on here as 'HM')

Poster by the name of 'Phil' on the theweatherforums.com - I literally go to this forum, look up his name, and look up his posting activity for the day to see if he's posted any long range thoughts (go to 'Find Content'>'Only Posts' to see a longer history of his posts).  He lives in the DC area but posts on that forum which is a forum with focus in the Pac NW.  One of his recent posts "The +EPO/US torch regime will break down in late January, FWIW.  Eurasian wavetrain (seasonal wave changes and modest alterations to the convective/WAF base) reorganizes --> sends surf/wave amplification zone into NPAC --> eventually waves break poleward and (Pac) blocking returns. The weaker the PV when it happens, the more amplification/self substance that'll occur."

David Gold (@dgoldwx2112) - a couple of his recent tweets...

"The North Pacific jet predicted by most solutions for end of 6-10d puts to shame anything we had during last year's strong El Nino event"
"A GWO 8-1 transition is likely thereafter, causing said jet to collapse and could lead to more Alaska blocking"

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34 minutes ago, griteater said:

Throwing out a few sources that I like for long range stuff...these guys go beyond model interpretation and use things like mountain torque, global wind oscillation, atmospheric angular momentum, tropical forcing, etc. as basis for their ideas.  Also, they are unbiased regarding cold/warm ideas.

Anthony Masiello (@antmasiello on Twitter) - most are aware of Anthony (former Met poster on here as 'HM')

Poster by the name of 'Phil' on the theweatherforums.com - I literally go to this forum, look up his name, and look up his posting activity for the day to see if he's posted any long range thoughts (go to 'Find Content'>'Only Posts' to see a longer history of his posts).  He lives in the DC area but posts on that forum which is a forum with focus in the Pac NW.  One of his recent posts "The +EPO/US torch regime will break down in late January, FWIW.  Eurasian wavetrain (seasonal wave changes and modest alterations to the convective/WAF base) reorganizes --> sends surf/wave amplification zone into NPAC --> eventually waves break poleward and (Pac) blocking returns. The weaker the PV when it happens, the more amplification/self substance that'll occur."

David Gold (@dgoldwx2112) - a couple of his recent tweets...

"The North Pacific jet predicted by most solutions for end of 6-10d puts to shame anything we had during last year's strong El Nino event"
"A GWO 8-1 transition is likely thereafter, causing said jet to collapse and could lead to more Alaska blocking"

Hm is a solid poster as well as Scott and Will. When they talk it's time to listen.

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1 hour ago, Upstate Tiger said:

Gotta say....that's my favorite JB statement of all time!

He has been talking about it since Saturday.  Now it seems several also going with same idea

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2 hours ago, packfan98 said:

Here's his post on southernwx.com

Most guidance is definitely throwing bit hints that we'll probably see a huge change of pace with this pattern in the last week of the month. This big vortex over Alaska will likely be temporary given the very unfavorable QBO/ENSO/Solar background, and I expect the North Pacific to undergo a major reshuffling in week 2-3... In doing so, the Pacific jet will begin to undercut the ridge over the eastern US, leading to an all too familiar, El Nino configuration over North America with a strong subtropical jet roaring underneath a big blocking ridge over the Hudson Bay and southeastern Canada. 

The real question from here will be if this ridge over the Hudson Bay/SE Canada can gain enough amplitude and latitude to begin retrograding westward towards the Canadian Rockies (& force a +PNA), remain quasi-stationary &/or continue east and dissipate over the North Atlantic/Greenland... We should probably have our answer to the latter question sometime next week...

Well that just sounds great! Cold and moisture together is always a plus.  The trick I think is as he mentioned, will we actually get true blocking, or will it weaken and just turn into Atlantic ridging off the coast, which we probably would do better without.  That's what happened to this storm, but many still scored. The ensembles are hinting at a +PNA / -NAO in the long range, so it's nice to hear that they are meshing with other long range synoptics that I really don't understand. 10-14 days will be here before we know it. 

 

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Only missed 1 storm....They'll be ready for the next :hurrbear:

1 storm and almost three months of downtime. They lost alot of regulars

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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some good looking signs ahead as we get close to late month with the possible pattern flip. The wild card looks to be the PNA at this point m of course we've been without one all season so far so who knows if we ever establish a positive one

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

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Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

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49 minutes ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

Keep us posted

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1 hour ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

LOL... Glad you didn't go out on a limb with a forecast!

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3 hours ago, Timothy Clyde said:

Models are often way too fast...I don't think the end of January will be favorable for winter weather. I think JB may be talking for areas way north of the S/E. For us tho, doesn't look like we have a rats ass of a chance until the second or third week of February to start tracking something wintry.

What actual data do you have to back this up. You busted during your absurd call in the storm thread and you will bust hard this time also. Obviously you don't know how patterns work.

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8 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

We need a homemade snow map to confirm.

lol. That would def. confirm 100% :lmao:     Winter coming back strong and maybe long end of January-March possibly!!!  JB/LC Robert etc...........  A ;ot feel good about lat month through part of March. We'll see how Wilkesdud does with his forecast..................... Don't know who to trust Pro Mets or Wilkesdud??? :unsure:

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45 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Topics for discussion today/sugestions since we are in wait mode outside sunbathing:

Long range:

gfs_T850a_namer_53.png

 

Short range:

GFS1.png

GFS has had that look for several runs now. If that little 8" swath moves east 35 miles. I may be headed to Castleton.

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45 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Topics for discussion today/sugestions since we are in wait mode outside sunbathing:

Long range:

gfs_T850a_namer_53.png

 

Short range:

GFS1.png

I like it, IF we can get the MJO to go into phase 2 it wouldn't be so boring in the southeast.

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HM tweeted something, something, something Modoki.  I know that Modoki is an El Nino phase that is conducive for winter weather in the SE, so perhaps it's a good sign?  Anybody want to translate the rest I'd appreciate it...

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