OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 52 minutes ago, dryslot said: 3-14" when i blend the models Our snow probability graphics give you a dusting to 12", so right on track with guidance. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Kevin is melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I mean watch the mid level low centers. Euro doesn't close off H7 until it's over ME, and H8 until ORH. So areas N and NE of the H8 low and especially at and N of the H7 low are in for at least a thumping I would think. But even that Euro track is probably an ugly dry slot for SE NH and coastal ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is a good setup for the mesos though...kind of like the meso-low was on 12/17. So the NAM idea of explosive bombo-genesis was fine. Euro even latched on to the crazy fast strengthening within the past few runs. Obviously you have to take the location with a grain of salt though at 60-72 hours out...but in the NAM's case, it was actually agreeing with the Euro pretty well...maybe a bit more bullish close to BOS, but it wasn't far off. The entire suite of guidance has trended north and later with development since yesterday's 12z apex of results for SNE after trending south/earlier for literally 2-3 straight days. I find it intriguing that's about the same timeframe these s/w's come onshore out west and are fully sampled into the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Our snow probability graphics give you a dusting to 12", so right on track with guidance. Ha lol, Whats a 11.9999" difference among probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sure has been interesting seeing a few of the comments laughing at those that are missing out after looking good the last few days. Don't recall that type of stuff happening last couple years . Enjoy the snow up north guys You mad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This threat has always sucked for most of sne. It's been relatively easy for BOS and SE...but I did think you had a sneaky chance yesterday given the model solutions. Also, I thought ORH and points west esp were in the zone. However, we also said it was tricky so nobody could really commit one way or the other. You still got 18z and 00z to really help with confidence in those tricky zones like ORH-MHT etc. Any little bump east or west matters exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Our snow probability graphics give you a dusting to 12", so right on track with guidance. Ha If you can indulge a mby question--What does you gut tell you for the Bath area? Can it muster more than a couple inches? THanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd like to see earlier development more than anything...the Euro was only just a smidge colder than 00z in the mid-levels despite the track...it is the explosive development that we want to start sooner more than anything else....obviously a further east track helps some, but not as much as earlier bombogenesis. None of the models are as explosive as before. We're basically dealing w a 990 low somewhere east of BOS, not the 960s/970s monster models had a couple days ago. The problem w this system is the further east solutions are weaker and kill the BL while stronger western solutions kill the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: It's been relatively easy for BOS and SE...but I did think you had a sneaky chance yesterday given the model solutions. Also, I thought ORH and points west esp were in the zone. However, we also said it was tricky so nobody could really commit one way or the other. You still got 18z and 00z to really help with confidence in those tricky zones like ORH-MHT etc. Any little bump east or west matters exponentially. We were out 2+ days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You mad? Very bummed out. Not afraid to admit that. I'm disappointed and frustrated. Was looking forward to taking the kids sledding tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, nzucker said: None of the models are as explosive as before. We're basically dealing w a 990 low somewhere east of BOS, not the 960s/970s monster models had a couple days ago. The problem w this system is the further east solutions are weaker and kill the BL while stronger western solutions kill the mid levels. You sound like Goldilocks. But this solution is just right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Very bummed out. Not afraid to admit that. I'm disappointed and frustrated. Was looking forward to taking the kids sledding tomorrow. I get that but I haven't really seen anyone getting any joy from the storm's inevitable wobbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Our snow probability graphics give you a dusting to 12", so right on track with guidance. Ha good thing schools are on vaca. What a PITA this forecast will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 8 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: If you can indulge a mby question--What does you gut tell you for the Bath area? Can it muster more than a couple inches? I think they can thump early, but it will change over there. So I wouldn't bank more than a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Very bummed out. Not afraid to admit that. I'm disappointed and frustrated. Was looking forward to taking the kids sledding tomorrow. never know Kevin... a little more eastward and a little more development and surprise, surprise, surprise! Here's hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 23 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Yes, I'm a Moderator but I'm also brutally honest. This threat went in the trash around 18z yesterday when we started losing the early development. Sounds like you were latching onto the NAM without looking at other guidance. I watched the 00z runs last night and was even more confident of a washout. Today's 12z runs confirmed that. I like the brutally honest tact ...okay - But, "confirmed that" ? ...confirms what - nothing's happened. Let's not take trophies folks until the race is actually run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, mreaves said: I get that but I haven't really seen anyone getting any joy from the storm's inevitable wobbles. Oh there's a few . Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 I'm def interested to see how BOX does things with warnings and snowfall maps in a little while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 also... it's cringe worth with all these Mets and high-road 'brutally honest' types struggling to mop up all the resentment in here. something that's never changed over years of weather-related social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like the brutally honest tact ...okay - But, "confirmed that" ? ...confirms what - nothing's happened. Let's not take trophies folks until the race is actually run I like that one, Spiking the ball at the 1 yd line gets over used......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Oh there's a few . Trust me. You really need to get less emotionally invested in this stuff. You have def taken steps forward as far as model analysis...but getting worked up one way or the other over 3" or 9" of snow ain't worth it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I'm def interested to see how BOX does things with warnings and snowfall maps in a little while I'd prob slap a warning for N ORH county, Franklin, and Hampshire counties. I feel pretty good about 6"+ for those areas. I'd prob downgrade S ORH county, Hampden, and N Middlesex county to advisories for 2-4" and no headlines south or east of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I like the brutally honest tact ...okay - But, "confirmed that" ? ...confirms what - nothing's happened. Let's not take trophies folks until the race is actually run As far as the models go, yes they have. I'm not seeing much difference amongst them, are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2016 Author Share Posted December 28, 2016 9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: I think they can thump early, but it will change over there. So I wouldn't bank more than a couple. Thanks. Hopefully the few inches on the ground won't get all washed away. It's not the year for pack retention that's for sure. Especially looking at early January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 6 minutes ago, dryslot said: I like that one, Spiking the ball at the 1 yd line gets over used......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: You really need to get less emotionally invested in this stuff. You have def taken steps forward as far as model analysis...but getting worked up one way or the other over 3" or 9" of snow ain't worth it . For me personally that isn't possible . I'm not wired that way. It's easy to tell someone that when you're in the 6-12" zone. More rain NYE and another warm cutter next week doesn't help either. It is what is . As Scooter has said .. it's not a SNE winter . Good luck up there tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd prob slap a warning for N ORH county, Franklin, and Hampshire counties. I feel pretty good about 6"+ for those areas. I'd prob downgrade S ORH county, Hampden, and N Middlesex county to advisories for 2-4" and no headlines south or east of those. this is perfect from my present opinion... namely because the warning cookie cuts around this a-hole that lives in ayer that love a good winter storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: For me personally that isn't possible . I'm not wired that way. It's easy to tell someone that when you're in the 6-12" zone. More rain NYE and another warm cutter next week doesn't help either. It is what is . As Scooter has said .. it's not a SNE winter . Good luck up there tomorrow. Meh. I've had my share of busted forecasts as well. This is one that looks like it had trended down here quite a bit. Right now I have a "pack" of 0-2" of Swiss cheese and mud. It's been a good month though. Long way to go until mid April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2016 Share Posted December 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: this is perfect from my present opinion... namely because the warning cookie cuts around this a-hole that lives in ayer that love a good winter storm I was hoping for a more dynamic storm than it looks like we will get here. TSSN and wind whipped snow are better than a sloppy few inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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