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Thread for 12/14 potential dusting, arctic air, and 12/17 potential slop

North Balti Zen

By North Balti Zen,
in Mid Atlantic

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
Just now, mitchnick said:

Best of luck....we're all counting on you. 

Its interesting that most of the guidance has been showing this small area of precip for days now. Always tough to pin down exact location though. Looking at the meso models I would think places just to my east and NE have the best shot at an inch or so.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its interesting that most of the guidance has been showing this small area of precip for days now. Always tough to pin down exact location though. Looking at the meso models I would think places just to my east and NE have the best shot at an inch or so.

WWA to your NE tonight?

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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Here is the discussion from Mount Holly- 

Expect an updated of the forecast for tonight to
be sent out later this morning as the new 12Z guidance starts to
spill in. Models are in better agreement with a band of snow
developing over the Delmarva close to midnight that expands
northeastward overnight into southern NJ as the arctic front moves
through. The snow should be moving off the coast by around 4 AM,
which would be good news for the morning rush. The northern edge
of the light snow could make it into Philadelphia and central NJ,
resulting in a dusting of snow overnight. Farther south,
ingredients for mesoscale snow banding may come together farther
south. Assuming the models are not too far off with the placement
of where the strongest frontogenetical forcing lines up, then a
narrow swath of 1-2 inch snowfall amounts are a possibility in
eastern MD, central DE and far southern NJ.
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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its interesting that most of the guidance has been showing this small area of precip for days now. Always tough to pin down exact location though. Looking at the meso models I would think places just to my east and NE have the best shot at an inch or so.

I agree. Many years ago I was coming from home OC in January and a very similar scenario occurred. From just west of OC to around Easton, there was decent snow (ultimately 3" fell around SBY), but nothing from the Bridge westward. This is when the SE ridge can be a friend, more so for you since you're closer to the ocean.

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das

das

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I know this is sort off topic, but can someone tell me what the kuchera ratio is?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

in a nutshell it uses temperatures it key height levels to estimate snowfall ratios.  The snow growth region is one of the key determining factors. 

Tonight is a perfect example of why it will be tough to get any meaningful snow even though a vigorous arctic front is moving through into relatively warm air.  The lift associated with the surge of cold air is all located within the lowest levels of the atmosphere, well below the snow growth region of ~-10C to -20C.  

KGAI Skew-T.png

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, mappy said:

Get it together people. It's December 14th! We don't even do December snow all that well. Step back, take a deep breath.

Amen! It's very typical in NINA years to have 7-14 day periods of wintry episodes/chances, then the pattern relaxes. Our best chances in any NINA are January outside of a occasional fluke Dec. event. In fact, other than 2/96, I can't recall off the top of my head a decent FEB in a NINA, but that could be early Alzheimer's.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Amen! It's very typical in NINA years to have 7-14 day periods of wintry episodes/chances, then the pattern relaxes. Our best chances in any NINA are January outside of a occasional fluke Dec. event. In fact, other than 2/96, I can't recall off the top of my head a decent FEB in a NINA, but that could be early Alzheimer's.

1989 was decent for just about the entire central US and Lakes, but the East sat under the ridge most of the month.  That was the best one I remember for the country east of the Plains.

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mattie g

mattie g

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just wait until after the lame event is over and washed down the gutter only to be faced with 10+ consecutive days of no chances and D10+ looks more hideous than the LA Rams' offense. 

I don't know, Bob...having a thread for some cold and a small chance at some slop is pretty f'ing sad.

I agree with WWL that having no chance can be preferable sometimes. It just sucks that the no/little chance would be in the period leading into Christmas.

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Jim_in_CA

Jim_in_CA

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Truthfully, I think I'm happier when there's no chance.

There's something to this.  Since moving to the SF Bay Area, I've found there's a certain comfort in knowing, with certainty, you will never get snow.  I think if I ever move, it'll be somewhere that gets snow reliably, or almost never gets it, the MA roulette is too anxiety inducing.

Of course in California, with our drought, I've now become a rain weenie -- which is perhaps even more depressing :P.

I'll be back in DC this Friday through the New Year.  My main hope is that most of the time I am there the highs are below 50, particularly Christmas Day.  After last year's horror, that's all I can ask for!  Of course, if there's some kind of event while I'm there, that'll be a nice bonus.

I am staying at a friend's house in Leesburg Friday night after their Christmas party -- so I'm still watching the Saturday event with some interest.  Out there it could be more interesting than at my mom's in Alexandria.  I usually hate snow-to-rain scenarios (much prefer rain-to-snow), but it would be nice just to see some flakes falling.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

1989 was decent for just about the entire central US and Lakes, but the East sat under the ridge most of the month.  That was the best one I remember for the country east of the Plains.

BWI had NO snow that month (2/89). NINA's are a biatch for snow, especially south of 40N.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

LWX afternoon disco for Fri night into Saturday

Quote 

High pressure will move off the coast Friday night through
Saturday. Low pressure will track into the Midwest Friday before
tracking through the Great Lakes Friday night. A southerly flow
between these systems will usher in milder air across the region.
However...as warm and moist air overruns the surface cold air in
place this will result in a period of wintry precipitation. Timing
and exact details still remain uncertain...but confidence in
hazardous travel conditions is high overnight Friday into Saturday
morning. A lull in the precipitation is possible as the dry slot
moves in Saturday afternoon and temperatures are expected to rise
well above freezing for most locations.
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