yoda Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Can we have what the GGEM shows please? kthxbai Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Can we have what the GGEM shows please? kthxbai It has been the coldest south model all week and now it's down to 1-2" while the rest are pretty much nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 The bleeding hasn't stopped with the 06Z GFS. The snowfall maps on weatherbell have once again decreased from its previous run, showing a general 1-2 inch fall. But a quick look at the temp profiles suggest most, if not all, of that would be sleet and or freezing rain. Even the precip type algorithms on weatherbell disagree with the snowfall map with showing only sleet or freezing rain during that period. We may reached the point where we have to hope for a little back-end snow if we want to see a little white falling from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: The bleeding hasn't stopped with the 06Z GFS. The snowfall maps on weatherbell have once again decreased from its previous run, showing a general 1-2 inch fall. But a quick look at the temp profiles suggest most, if not all, of that would be sleet and or freezing rain. Even the precip type algorithms on weatherbell disagree with the snowfall map with showing only sleet or freezing rain during that period. We may reached the point where we have to hope for a little back-end snow if we want to see a little white falling from the sky. The front end thump potential is fading fast. Last night's flizzard was a fail. We can hope for something on the back-end, but given model trends it looks like that will complete the trifecta of fail for this thread. Well at least we got the cold and dry part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: The bleeding hasn't stopped with the 06Z GFS. The snowfall maps on weatherbell have once again decreased from its previous run, showing a general 1-2 inch fall. But a quick look at the temp profiles suggest most, if not all, of that would be sleet and or freezing rain. Even the precip type algorithms on weatherbell disagree with the snowfall map with showing only sleet or freezing rain during that period. We may reached the point where we have to hope for a little back-end snow if we want to see a little white falling from the sky. I've pretty much thrown in the towel on this. The cold boundary has ended up north of model guidance from a week out all month. At this point I don't see much reason for things to shift back in our favor. Guidance should see he cold well by now. Hopefully I'm wrong and 12 shifts south 100 miles. I didn't even bother to look at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 At least our Dutch Wonderland trip won't be ruined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 For College Park area, Euro shows three chances at frozen precipitation during the next 5 days: Saturday: ~1" of snow (sleet mixing in?) transitioning to sleet/freezing rain around 6 AM (~0.05") followed by a half-inch or so of plain rain --ending Saturday evening Sunday: Intermittent rain with temperatures falling from 60s to 30s possibly (but not likely) ending as a flurry. ~2/3 of an inch of rain Tuesday morning: Cold Rain possibly beginning as freezing rain. ~0.1" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 49 minutes ago, mappy said: At least our Dutch Wonderland trip won't be ruined. My kids seemingly grew up there. Oh the memories! Enjoy your time there with your family...and "yes", I'm jealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Next time a threat like this appears don't expect anything unless the modeled 850 line starts in Orlando at d5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 damn. everyone has given up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 The best thing about the next 72hrs will be a cloudy friday with highs in the mid 20s. At least I can pretend there is a beast in the gulf getting ready to barrel up the coast while I'm xmas shopping. Back to picking apart day 15 NHEMI 500mb maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 3 minutes ago, mappy said: damn. everyone has given up. I'm still in...until I'm out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 Even the cold is kinda meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Even the cold is kinda meh. stand in a shady area on top of an open field for 15 min and report back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 This forum is showing its rust. We typically suck at December snow, downsloping, and storms to our North. We're outstanding at early January to mid Feb, overrunning and storms sliding to our South and redeveloping off the coast...or something like that. That said, we're not that bad at finding snow from Arctic airmasses so maybe we find a way tomorrow night/Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 10 minutes ago, mappy said: damn. everyone has given up. It's the other way around. The storm gave up on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I'm not out as long as there is a chance that some flakes fall from the sky before the sleet/rain. 6Z NAM certainly allows us to hold onto that possibility, and it would give us a decent icing afterwards. I need some wintery precip in my life, and considering that next week seems to be out, consider me invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Next time a threat like this appears don't expect anything unless the modeled 850 line starts in Orlando at d5. The estimation of the southward extent of the Arctic air was again greatly exaggerated. In the end with the nao and Pna as hostile as they are it shouldn't shock us that the cold can't really make much penetration south or hold. Especially this time of year with warm coastal waters nearby. The cold has hit the Midwest and plains but here it's been muted. Results could be better in January/February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 9 minutes ago, H2O said: stand in a shady area on top of an open field for 15 min and report back. I was going to say the same thing... I was out for 5 min and I am frozen... That wind is a killer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 I'm not one to even wear a jacket unless it gets really cold. Today, and only because of the wind, was a jacket day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12z NAM still looks like a slip and slide for a few hours until it warms up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It's the other way around. The storm gave up on us yes the system is out to get us. NO SNOW FOR YOU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 15, 2016 Author Share Posted December 15, 2016 36 minutes ago, H2O said: stand in a shady area on top of an open field for 15 min and report back. Yeah, definitely cold, I guess I was inartfully saying observing that the push of cold air doesn't seem to match up with what was originally advertised. At least my point and click isn't for lows around 5 tonight, for instance, and we are not doing highs in the teens. Pretty sure a few runs of for this day showed that kind of cold, is my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 8 minutes ago, mappy said: yes the system is out to get us. NO SNOW FOR YOU. this guy took our snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 He's coming for you. Christmas. Get ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12z NAM has some frozen with the back end wave. The threat and thread lives! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12z NAM has some frozen with the back end wave. The threat and thread lives!I'm still not done with Saturday. We should get some wintry precip out of it. I haven't even reached full inexperienced weenie yet. Check out the 6Z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 12z NAM has some frozen with the back end wave. The threat and thread lives!I'm still not done with Saturday. We should get some wintry precip out of it. I haven't even reached full inexperienced weenie yet. Check out the 6Z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 15, 2016 Share Posted December 15, 2016 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I'm still not done with Saturday. We should get some wintry precip out of it. I haven't even reached full inexperienced weenie yet. Check out the 6Z RGEM. Sure... 1mm of snow through 48 hrs lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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