WinterWolf Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Remember, Jan was toast too. Now Feb. Our only saving grace is a clipper in early March but thats fizzled lately. We can regroup in spring training though and get em next winter. LMAO....Some things never change and some people just never get it..... great post Runnaway...hope that clipper in March works out for us(probably going to be moisture starved for SNE though) cuz Jan and Feb are toast on this second day of winter now. Thank goodness for the level headed people in here who give accurate and reasonable info. and not voodoo. If not for them this place would be another twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 He knows what hes doing, we know know what hes doing....but its still fun to knock the punching bag around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He knows what hes doing, we know know what hes doing....but its still fun to knock the punching bag around. NYE is my target date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 The one around the 30th is the one i like that could be on the siggy side, Until then we will gather up the crumbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Spin Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: NNE winter. We’ll see, but there are definitely areas of NNE that are in line for some recovery to average snowfall eventually, after multiple seasons running below. Regardless, at least at our site, we’re pretty much just keeping up with average December snowfall at this point, and snowpack is actually below average, so I’m not sure I’m on board with calling anything “NNE winter” yet. Aren’t most SNE sites at or above average December snowfall already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 2 minutes ago, J.Spin said: We’ll see, but there are definitely areas of NNE that are in line for some recovery to average snowfall eventually, after multiple seasons running below. Regardless, at least at our site, we’re pretty much just keeping up with average December snowfall at this point, and snowpack is actually below average, so I’m not sure I’m on board with calling anything “NNE winter” yet. Aren’t most SNE sites at or above average December snowfall already? Well I don't mean to take it too literally of course, just in a relative sense up to this point. As far as the numbers go, I think western ma up into srn VT and srn NH are AN in snow and BN in temps. I believe ORH is also a bit snowier than normal so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 45 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NYE is my target date Pattern looks much more conducive for SNE around that period. Nice ridging building into GoAK. Also looks like PV is moving into a move favorable position for a cold dump into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Pattern looks much more conducive for SNE around that period. Nice ridging building into GoAK. Also looks like PV is moving into a move favorable position for a cold dump into the east. yes need a strong shortwave to induce cyclogenisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: yes need a strong shortwave to induce cyclogenisis I know you saw the 06z GFS with the late bloomer on the the 30th. That's one to keep an eye on. Looked like the 00z run sheared it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: I know you saw the 06z GFS with the late bloomer on the the 30th. That's one to keep an eye on. Looked like the 00z run sheared it out. Deep sub 520 5h is a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Yeah the pattern is much more conducive towards and after NY. For SNE anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah the pattern is much more conducive towards and after NY. For SNE anyways. Yup. Typical start to a typical Winter. Seeing agreement between the EPS/GEFS is promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Looks like everyone concurs on NYE storm potential is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: Looks like everyone concurs on NYE storm potential is the real deal. It's 9 days out so I wouldn't get too carried away. It is just that there's some potential with a decent high in place but that could change...and not to be a downer, but still probably a hostile look for cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It's 9 days out so I wouldn't get too carried away. It is just that there's some potential with a decent high in place but that could change...and not to be a downer, but still probably a hostile look for cape cod. Especially east of HYA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Well I don't mean to take it too literally of course, just in a relative sense up to this point. As far as the numbers go, I think western ma up into srn VT and srn NH are AN in snow and BN in temps. I believe ORH is also a bit snowier than normal so far this month. I'd include western MA with respect to Mitch's area west of the Berks AN as they got that nice upsloping stuff earlier in the month. I'd put the east side in the close to normal area. That said, this area might be doing better than the west side with OTG given our retention last weekend. I'm still keeping hope alive for something other than rain on Saturday. 28.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Canadian provides a Festivus miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Canadian provides a Festivus miracle. Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 Too warm for snow in MBY, but NNE folks will get some accum. The GFS for late next week is the one to track. Hopefully it trends farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 33 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: I'd include western MA with respect to Mitch's area west of the Berks AN as they got that nice upsloping stuff earlier in the month. I'd put the east side in the close to normal area. That said, this area might be doing better than the west side with OTG given our retention last weekend. I'm still keeping hope alive for something other than rain on Saturday. 28.1 If you are getting close to 24" on the season, then you are solidly above normal for the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you are getting close to 24" on the season, then you are solidly above normal for the season. You're right---arithmetic failure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: If you are getting close to 24" on the season, then you are solidly above normal for the season. I'm over 20" and since I probably average a little under 60" seasonally I would say we are at least 20% AN in Greenfield for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 38 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Canadian provides a Festivus miracle. I like to use a blend of the Canadian, Ukie and JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 7 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I'm over 20" and since I probably average a little under 60" seasonally I would say we are at least 20% AN in Greenfield for the date. My guess is that you avg closer to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is that you avg closer to 70. It's too bad the town keeps lousy records. We do have a retired met in town who I'm going to email about averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is that you avg closer to 70. That seems like a better number for that area. I know it is in a valley, but they get the latitude going for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 latest monthlies have March warmer than January - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 22 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That seems like a better number for that area. I know it is in a valley, but they get the latitude going for them Yeah and they also get some spill over from LE bands too. He doesn't get as shadowed like further south in the CT valley because his is a more narrow type valley and he's tucked in west of the main CT valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 I'll take the under on 70" avg up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 22, 2016 Share Posted December 22, 2016 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: My guess is that you avg closer to 70. 28 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: It's too bad the town keeps lousy records. We do have a retired met in town who I'm going to email about averages. 21 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: That seems like a better number for that area. I know it is in a valley, but they get the latitude going for them My guess would be somewhere in the 61-66" range. Ashfield, MA is (or was) a high quality coop not far to their southwest and averaged 77" but at an elevation of near 1300 feet. If you apply the "1 inch per 100 feet of elevation" rule that does well in the interior plus a little orographic adjustment, the river valley up there should be in the low to mid 60s. They do retain snow quite well though...esp in a CAD/cutter pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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