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Model Mayhem!


SR Airglow

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in any event.   a key 'table set' circumstance i'm seeing in this run (also) is that between 96 and 120 hours ... prior to the trough coming east out of the west, the heights over the Gulf interface are lowering.  Heights over MIA are down to 580 dm, and the corresponding wind velocities are light... that means, however transient notwithstanding, the ridge is relaxed.

in simple terms: that's a good thing.

should the southern 'weak looking' mechanics come in stronger in future runs, that type of morphology lends to less shearing in the SE ... which would help the Miller B idea along -

I don't think we can preclude that stronger trough correction in that region just yet. 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Word.  He's developing some excellent trolling capabilities.   Comes with 100,000 posts.  

Fingers furiously flipping posts out in a frantic final drive to 100k. Special moment . I had a thread for it which they moved to OT for some reason. Should be here in our forum for everyone to take part in

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13 hours ago, Hazey said:

This one on the 23rd ish might sprout legs. I'd watch it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No sprouts yet.

 

It appears my forecast and the AFD were not done by the same person:

Thursday into Thursday night...
Pretty much wet and windy. Pac
Thursday
Snow and rain likely. Highs in the upper 30s. Chance of precipitation 60 percent.
Thursday Night
Snow...rain...sleet likely with a chance of freezing rain. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Friday
Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs in the mid 30s.
 

 

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it's still an option everywhere -

wow

i mean, granted ... the blind-love for Euro still left something to be desired, it doesn't change the fact that for about a 2.5 days period of time, the deep SE and adjacent Gulf interface geopotential medium is temporarily relaxing prior to the D 5 thing being ejected out of the west. it 'probably' won't - okay, but i would be surprised/  if that thing comes in off the Pacific with more mechanics in the southern part of the trough.  that would parlay favorable for sooner cyclogenesis down wind for a slew of reasons that won't fit on the interface of an iPhone or Android so I'm not going to bother -  I will say that the NW zones in cutting Euro solution were marginal anyway.

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