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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yes...2004.

 

The one thing that could help in this hurricane spare some terrible damage is if the storm rides parallel to the coastline and not really make landfall at more of a right angle...the funny part is that there is no guarantee this storm makes landfall at all in Florida...wouldn't that be something?

 

I think it probably will kiss the coastline somewhere in the northern half of the state, but these things can be really quirky and temperamental...not easy to predict when the flow slows down like that.

 

yeah this is touching on my internal laughter all morning ..

loops but never hits land, ...comes around and then the next trough expresses a freight train right up LI arse .. 

i mean exactly!   when loops get involved, all bets are off - 

probably it will find the least wanted solution relative to all observing parties - we can DEFINITELY go with THAT.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Everyone speaks in a derogatory manner about ERCs from the perspective of a wx enthusiast because they entail a short to medium range weakening, and sometimes drastically at that. However given enough time under ideal conditions, the system re intensifies and more importantly, the wind field EXPANDS.....

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted

You have to wonder how many people like this there are:

"About 20 miles away in the town of Cape Canaveral, John Long said Hurricane Matthew is just hype as his neighbors in his RV park packed up and evacuated inland. Even though his 32-foot RV is just feet from the Banana River and a half mile from the beach, he had no plans to leave.  Long, who owns a bike shop and has lived along the Space Coast for 30 years, said he has a generator and enough food and water for himself and his cats to last a week.  "There's always tremendous buildup and then it's no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm," he said. "I'm not anticipating that much damage.""

 

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Dan said:

You have to wonder how many people like this there are:

"About 20 miles away in the town of Cape Canaveral, John Long said Hurricane Matthew is just hype as his neighbors in his RV park packed up and evacuated inland. Even though his 32-foot RV is just feet from the Banana River and a half mile from the beach, he had no plans to leave.  Long, who owns a bike shop and has lived along the Space Coast for 30 years, said he has a generator and enough food and water for himself and his cats to last a week.  "There's always tremendous buildup and then it's no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm," he said. "I'm not anticipating that much damage.""

 

I've witnessed this personally, noted a few pages back. Thousands unfortunately. This time with deadly consequences. 

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Dan

Dan

Posted
Posted
Just now, ROOSTA said:

I've witnessed this personally, noted a few pages back. Thousands unfortunately. This time with deadly consequences. 

 

That's what I am expected unfortunately as well.  I'm sure there are hurricane parties up and down the east coast of Florida.  It sounds like plenty of people are heeding the warnings, but there are those that think its not going to be that bad.   Sad.

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Dan said:

You have to wonder how many people like this there are:

"About 20 miles away in the town of Cape Canaveral, John Long said Hurricane Matthew is just hype as his neighbors in his RV park packed up and evacuated inland. Even though his 32-foot RV is just feet from the Banana River and a half mile from the beach, he had no plans to leave.  Long, who owns a bike shop and has lived along the Space Coast for 30 years, said he has a generator and enough food and water for himself and his cats to last a week.  "There's always tremendous buildup and then it's no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm," he said. "I'm not anticipating that much damage.""

 

What are the odds they find his body?

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

If the eye rides N up the coast and bounces inland a few times along it may beat Katrina.  Could see more wind damage than Katrina.

Wind damage will absolutely beat Katrina...I am just hesitant to predict it to eclipse Katrina because that broken levy in New Orleans was truly catastrophic....should be close

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butterfish55

butterfish55

Posted
Posted
You have to wonder how many people like this there are:

"About 20 miles away in the town of Cape Canaveral, John Long said Hurricane Matthew is just hype as his neighbors in his RV park packed up and evacuated inland. Even though his 32-foot RV is just feet from the Banana River and a half mile from the beach, he had no plans to leave.  Long, who owns a bike shop and has lived along the Space Coast for 30 years, said he has a generator and enough food and water for himself and his cats to last a week.  "There's always tremendous buildup and then it's no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm," he said. "I'm not anticipating that much damage.""

 


There is about to be one less person like that
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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wind damage will absolutely beat Katrina...I am just hesitant to predict it to eclipse Katrina because that broken levy in New Orleans was truly catastrophic....should be close

I would agree but one must consider LF +/- A track inland would be wiped-out city especially E. Loss of life has no price. Given the complacency that is a much greater fear. Either way probably rival the costliest events. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Everyone speaks in a derogatory manner about ERCs from the perspective of a wx enthusiast because they entail a short to medium range weakening, and sometimes drastically at that. However given enough time under ideal conditions, the system re intensifies and more importantly, the wind field EXPANDS.....

increases surge and IKE

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted

Does anyone know what the storm surge is forecast to be in areas like Daytona Beach?

The attached image shows the 100 year flood (blue shaded areas), the 500 year (orange) and those areas above the 500 year (no shading). Generally speaking, about 1/2 those intercoastal areas are in the flood zone. A lot of people don't have flood insurance as they own their homes outright. I bet the taxpayers will be on the hook.

Daytona beach.jpg

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, MarkO said:

Does anyone know what the storm surge is forecast to be in areas like Daytona Beach?

The attached image shows the 100 year flood (blue shaded areas), the 500 year (orange) and those areas above the 500 year (no shading). Generally speaking, about 1/2 those intercoastal areas are in the flood zone. A lot of people don't have flood insurance as they own their homes outright. I bet the taxpayers will be on the hook.

http://www.weather.gov/mlb/htisurge

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/154742.shtml?wsurge#contents

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/153536.shtml?inundation

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Even the outhouse on the Inter-coastal is 500k.   

Thanks for the URL/s Chris

Most of them are experimental, but it gives you an idea anyway. The move is definitely headed towards that GIS style inundation mapping of the last link. I know we'll be upgrading our database to allow for that this coming year.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Dan said:

You have to wonder how many people like this there are:

"About 20 miles away in the town of Cape Canaveral, John Long said Hurricane Matthew is just hype as his neighbors in his RV park packed up and evacuated inland. Even though his 32-foot RV is just feet from the Banana River and a half mile from the beach, he had no plans to leave.  Long, who owns a bike shop and has lived along the Space Coast for 30 years, said he has a generator and enough food and water for himself and his cats to last a week.  "There's always tremendous buildup and then it's no stronger than an afternoon thunderstorm," he said. "I'm not anticipating that much damage.""

 

Someone keep tabs on this guy and his 32 foot long flying tin can throughout all of this.

Thanks.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It all depends on how this tracks. If it's just offshore, it won't be a huge deal. But have this come halfway onshore and north for 100 miles and it's a different story. 10 miles means the difference of billions of dollars. 

 

Yeah taking the parallel track means like 30 or 40 miles makes an astronomical difference in damage. If it literally straddles the coastline from PBI to CHS, that would be ridiculous for damage costs....but if you shove the whole thing like 40 miles east, it really wouldn't be THAT bad. Yeah, there could be nasty damage, but it would be more on par a bad Nor' Easter stalled out or something.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah taking the parallel track means like 30 or 40 miles makes an astronomical difference in damage. If it literally straddles the coastline from PBI to CHS, that would be ridiculous for damage costs....but if you shove the whole thing like 40 miles east, it really wouldn't be THAT bad. Yeah, there could be nasty damage, but it would be more on par a bad Nor' Easter stalled out or something.

The real winds are in the eyewall and the western eyewall is weaker. If that misses or even offshore by only 5 or 10 miles...means everything. It's a real tough call given the coastline orientation and angle of approach. If anything it seems to be just a hair east of consensus so far...but it doesn't mean it will stay that way. A wobble could bring the eye right onshore too.  At this stage though, better be safer than sorry, so I would certainly take the warnings seriously. I'm just not sure of Katrina comparison given the uncertainties. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoastalWx said:

The real winds are in the eyewall and the western eyewall is weaker. If that misses or even offshore by only 5 or 10 miles...means everything. It's a real tough call given the coastline orientation and angle of approach. If anything it seems to be just a hair east of consensus so far...but it doesn't mean it will stay that way. A wobble could bring the eye right onshore too.  At this stage though, better be safer than sorry, so I would certainly take the warnings seriously. I'm just not sure of Katrina comparison given the uncertainties. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The real winds are in the eyewall and the western eyewall is weaker. If that misses or even offshore by only 5 or 10 miles...means everything. It's a real tough call given the coastline orientation and angle of approach. If anything it seems to be just a hair east of consensus so far...but it doesn't mean it will stay that way. A wobble could bring the eye right onshore too.  At this stage though, better be safer than sorry, so I would certainly take the warnings seriously. I'm just not sure of Katrina comparison given the uncertainties. 

Assuming status quo wind field distribution. Looks like a ERC could happen , depending on how tight it gets after will determine wind field distribution. Total nail biter. Modeling is pretty grim

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