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Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

either way, fun for Florida storm enthusiasts I suppose... (again, it's probably a Cate. 4 when it hits - sure... for anyone knee-jerk ready to click submit reply with hate mail because i dared downplay the intensity of their drug..)

you know, it's not out of the realm of possibilities that this thing skims the coast, ...loops E then S, then stalls, then gets picked up by the next amplitude trekking across the nation later on.  that's sort of hinted at by the hugely trustworth GGEM and Frakenstein NAVGEMers...

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Professional Lurker

Professional Lurker

Posted
Posted
I thinks I need plywood on my windows. I'm going to lose these flimsy honeycombed plastic things. Awestruck and extremely dangerous for anyone staying along the Inter-coastal or 10 miles within the beach front. St.Johns River basin is going to flood over 60k dwellings alone. 


My parents left early this morning without a hotel reservation. While there were plenty of rooms in orlando, they wanted to get farther away. They're driving on I-10 now. Nearest room? Pensacola.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Time to put models away and go with obs and what these have done inland in past 

 

I assume you mean a storm like Wilma which brought >100mph winds around Orlando....that was totally different with the storm barreling up from the southwest and the model guidance supported big winds inland on that event.

The biggest threat for huge winds inland would be isolated tornadoes...though they are more common in the front right quadrant which will be mostly over ocean.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I assume you mean a storm like Wilma which brought >100mph winds around Orlando....that was totally different with the storm barreling up from the southwest and the model guidance supported big winds inland on that event.

The biggest threat for huge winds inland would be isolated tornadoes...though they are more common in the front right quadrant which will be mostly over ocean.

Knowing that strongest winds are on the eastern side, and considering that is most likely going to remain over the coast or out to sea, probably not best to bet on 100+ inland. Most people underestimate how much friction and decay will dissipate winds if this comes onshore.

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
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14 minutes ago, Professional Lurker said:


My parents left early this morning without a hotel reservation. While there were plenty of rooms in orlando, they wanted to get farther away. They're driving on I-10 now. Nearest room? Pensacola.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

FANTASTIC,
Sidebar to that. I was talking with my neighbor across the way. They're heading to Tallahassee.

Tens of thousands of people on the move. Glad to see the words out and people are heeding the call.    

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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12 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Knowing that strongest winds are on the eastern side, and considering that is most likely going to remain over the coast or out to sea, probably not best to bet on 100+ inland. Most people underestimate how much friction and decay will dissipate winds if this comes onshore.

this is hugely true - ...the part about Ekman dissipating... 

i've seen HUGE nor'easters with like 6 isobars between BTV and BOS and we might gust to 40 mph in heavy snow  - awesome, sure!  but that gradient had much stronger winds typically off the deck. 

it's why we get our best synoptic wind events from well mixed highly pressure-compressed warm sectors with a hellacious WCB out ahead of a ribbon echo squall.  it's classic synoptic wind events for 40 N in latter October through December.  but you get a retreating high and a deep frontal trough and lots of isobars in the warm sector and you lean trees big time!

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Knowing that strongest winds are on the eastern side, and considering that is most likely going to remain over the coast or out to sea, probably not best to bet on 100+ inland. Most people underestimate how much friction and decay will dissipate winds if this comes onshore.

What do you think of HRRR ? Cat 4 now 140 mph

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
Just now, Ginx snewx said:

What do you think of HRRR ? Cat 4 now 140 mph

Not sure if the track is spot on, but the general sense of how winds would dissipate looks right. It's pretty far left as far as landfall goes, but given the angle of approach, that's the type of track error we could see with a wobble or two.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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i remember ... hm, i think it was Hurricane Floyd?  my memory falters on details routinely, however. 

anyway, it came up on the inside (Gulf) of the FL Penn. and go figure, .. Cat  1 or 2 goes to Cat 3 or 4 in the closing innings (haha).  

but the scene on the television was of a partially bloody-faced civilian. He was disheveled and irate ...think minding one's own business when the assumption of ambient reality around him was suddenly converted to certitude of a dishwasher set to scour.  He was visibly peeved ... self-righteous too, about the fact that '....Yeah, and the weather people said it was going to hit 30 miles up the coast...!'

umm, riiiiight -

what had happened is that the storm intensified some 30 mph of additional sand-blastage as it neared the western coast of the Penn, but also 'hooked' just slightly right, too; such that the 30 mi of ...whatever he/they thought was an excuse to venture out of doors was abruptly vanquished.  They were hit pretty much smack nuts on, as they sat in blithe haze of cigarette smoke and aromas of coffee and syrup.  

see, that's the kind of riffraff the NWS in part, charged with the responsibility of protecting.   the rage in stupidity of the plebeian masses.. it is perhaps as boundless as the tempest peeling roofs and eviscerated pancakes, bacon, eggs ... along with abstinent patron idiots from the suddenly exposed guts of witless diners.  

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i remember ... hm, i think it was Hurricane Floyd?  my memory falters on details routinely, however. 

anyway, it came up on the inside (Gulf) of the FL Penn. and go figure, .. Cat  1 or 2 goes to Cat 3 or 4 in the closing innings (haha).  

but the scene on the television was of a partially bloody-faced civilian. He was disheveled and irate ...think minding one's own business when the assumption of ambient reality around him was suddenly converted to certitude of a dishwasher set to scour.  He was visibly peeved ... self-righteous too, about the fact that '....Yeah, and the weather people said it was going to hit 30 miles up the coast...!'

umm, riiiiight -

what had happened is that the storm intensified some 30 mph of additional sand-blastage as it neared the western coast of the Penn, but also 'hooked' just slightly right, too; such that the 30 mi of ...whatever he/they thought was an excuse to venture out of doors was abruptly vanquished.  They were hit pretty much smack nuts on, as they sat in blithe haze of cigarette smoke and aromas of coffee and syrup.  

see, that's the kind of riffraff the NWS in part, charged with the responsibility of protecting.   the rage in stupidity of the plebeian masses.. it is perhaps as boundless as the tempest peeling roofs and eviscerated pancakes, bacon, eggs ... along with abstinent patron idiots from the suddenly exposed guts of witless diners.  

 

 

Probably Hurricane Charley you are thinking of....underwent crazy intensification in the final few hours and hooked a bit right. It largely spared Tampa/St. Petersburg who theyinitially thought would be under the gun.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Just now, Amped said:

LOL people using the HRRR or the NAM to track tropical cyclones. These are probably the same people who eat with pliers an nailclippers instead of forks and knives.

Really really, new HRRR has never been tested. NAM I get. Link me to HRRR bias in cat 4 hurricanes meat.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Probably Hurricane Charley you are thinking of....underwent crazy intensification in the final few hours and hooked a bit right. It largely spared Tampa/St. Petersburg who theyinitially thought would be under the gun.

yep - that's the one.   2004 ?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yep - that's the one.   2004 ?

 

Yes...2004.

 

The one thing that could help in this hurricane spare some terrible damage is if the storm rides parallel to the coastline and not really make landfall at more of a right angle...the funny part is that there is no guarantee this storm makes landfall at all in Florida...wouldn't that be something?

 

I think it probably will kiss the coastline somewhere in the northern half of the state, but these things can be really quirky and temperamental...not easy to predict when the flow slows down like that.

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