Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[Hoth]

Eye starting to clear.

[Dan]

21 minutes ago, Dan said:

Part of the problem is they have not been hit directly in awhile and with anything as strong as this.  

Anyone know what the strongest hurricane to hit the Port Canaveral area is?  Obviously Andrew near Miami, but that was much more compact then this was and didn't affect the areas north of it very much.  

Looks like Hurricane Jeanne in 2004 was a cat 3. but Port Canaveral only saw winds gust to 79 mph.  What made Jeanne bad was that Frances hit almost the same place earlier in the month.

 

It does not appear the Cape area has seen anything like what could potentially affect them Friday if Matthew continues to strengthen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Pinhole eye developing..

#floridaisf*cked

[HoarfrostHubb]

46 minutes ago, Dan said:

Part of the problem is they have not been hit directly in awhile and with anything as strong as this.  

Anyone know what the strongest hurricane to hit the Port Canaveral area is?  Obviously Andrew near Miami, but that was much more compact then this was and didn't affect the areas north of it very much.  

I don't know if they have taken a direct hit from a major in recent history...

[Hoth]

One more for the archives. Nice symmetry, pinhole eye, very cold cloud tops starting to ring it.

[TalcottWx]

My aunt is in Ormond Beach, FL just north of Daytona. She was planning on riding it out. Just talked her into getting a room at the Best Western by the airport. She lives at the beach there, and it looks like a tremendously dangerous place to be.

[TalcottWx]

It's back to a buzzsaw appearance. 

[ROOSTA]

I'm trying to find the words. UNBELIEVABLE, no SURREAL. A living nightmare. I was thinking back to a few years ago travelling down to Key West out of Miami (chasing some tail, story taken to IM for those interested) soon after Andrew. The vivid recall of complete landscape levelling from the very intense eyewall. Trying to grasp the immensity of such destruction over a much larger populated area. It's hard to fathom.

Given the distance and forward speed could possibly see an EWR or two. Place the center traversing from E of Okeechobee up to Orlando and exit at the mouth of the St.Johns. The whole State would (will) experience hurricane force winds.  

[mulen]

First outer bands incoming should be a very challenging next 24 hrs i wonder how Bostonfella is doing . Hope the juice stays on so i will update the downhill conditions. see ya

[Damage In Tolland]

DANGEROUS HURRICANE MATTHEW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS, IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY NEAR OR OVER THE EAST CENTRAL COAST
OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

EXTREMELY DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW CONTAINING THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, STORM SURGE AND HEAVY RAIN SQUALLS WILL MOVE
ALONG OR OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE VERY
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WIDESPREAD EXTENSIVE TO DEVASTATING WIND IMPACTS WILL BE FELT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS LOFTED BY EXTREME WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BREACHING
STRUCTURES, UNPROTECTED WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EFFECTS SUCH AS THESE
RANGING FROM THE COAST TO WELL INLAND HAVE NOT BEEN EXPERIENCED IN
CENTRAL FLORIDA IN DECADES.

LOCAL WINDS WILL EXCEED WHAT OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANES OF
2004. ANY EVACUATIONS AND STRUCTURE PREPARATION SHOULD BE COMPLETED
THIS AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED BEGINNING AT DUSK.
EXPECT WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES.

[Hoth]

When it's working, this Nassau cam is wild. http://www.portnassauwebcam.com  Also, pressure down to 940mb, 20mb overnight, and wind up to 125mph. Matt still intensifying and why not? Superb conditions for it.

[Hoth]

Per OSU in main tropical thread, 133kts found in SE quad in dropsonde. 

[OceanStWx]

Nassau back online, 07050G74KT

[ROOSTA]

COD site has a great option on it's satellite page, use of the extrapolation feature...FYI

No time better for it's usefullness.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Josh looks to be it the perfect spot to grab the eyewall,

[tamarack]

10 hours ago, sbos_wx said:

My aunt is in Ormond Beach, FL just north of Daytona. She was planning on riding it out. Just talked her into getting a room at the Best Western by the airport. She lives at the beach there, and it looks like a tremendously dangerous place to be.

My sister-in-law lives in Ormond Beach, fairly modern house (presumably built to code) not all that close to the beach.  They also plan on staying put - at this stage, trying to evacuate might just have them riding out the storm in a traffic jam not many miles from home.

[Ginx snewx]

History in the making

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Josh looks to be it the perfect spot to grab the eyewall,

He's too far north

[donsutherland1]

22 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

 

We were discussing something along these lines this morning. Even within the field, there is still a pretty poor understanding of ensembles and what they actually tell us. I would say I work with a handful of these people. They know what an ensemble is, but not how to use it.

Interesting information, OceanStWx.

Perhaps federal funding resource constraints have inhibited the kind of training that might minimize such issues?

[Damage In Tolland]

Seems likely we have a cat 5 making LF near Boca tonight. Incredible 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

Interesting information, OceanStWx.

Perhaps federal funding resource constraints have inhibited the kind of training that might minimize such issues?

Staffing shortages play into it (not enough time for training when you are covering vacant shifts), but there is also an old dog/new tricks aspect too. Some still prefer the "model of the day" method of building a forecast. 

Matthew has been both a good and bad example of why that doesn't work. If you picked the Euro, your forecast would have been pretty spot on. If you had picked the GFS (which many do because it's free and has the highest resolution) not so much.

[OceanStWx]

NHC conference call just started. Not really news to us, but the recon flights have found Matthew is stronger than the last update.

[ROOSTA]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

History in the making

I thinks I need plywood on my windows. I'm going to lose these flimsy honeycombed plastic things. Awestruck and extremely dangerous for anyone staying along the Inter-coastal or 10 miles within the beach front. St.Johns River basin is going to flood over 60k dwellings alone. 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

I thinks I need plywood on my windows. I'm going to lose these flimsy honeycombed plastic things. Awestruck and extremely dangerous for anyone staying along the Inter-coastal or 10 miles within the beach front. St.Johns River basin is going to flood over 60k dwellings alone. 

Wind swath is tight hopefully doesn't spread. You may be spared somewhat

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

NHC conference call just started. Not really news to us, but the recon flights have found Matthew is stronger than the last update.

My theory is that if we graphed TC intensity - in updates - as a function of both time and geographical space we would see a spike tendency across systems nearing land ... almost proportionate to population density 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

My theory is that if we graphed TC intensity - in updates - as a function of both time and geographical space we would see a spike tendency across systems nearing land ... almost proportionate to population density 

We're also well timed with the diurnal trend in max intensity. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Donny.. you'll gust over 100 there

[Hoth]

14 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I thinks I need plywood on my windows. I'm going to lose these flimsy honeycombed plastic things. Awestruck and extremely dangerous for anyone staying along the Inter-coastal or 10 miles within the beach front. St.Johns River basin is going to flood over 60k dwellings alone. 

Pretty sure my uncle's place included.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

We're also well timed with the diurnal trend in max intensity. 

yeah ... well, i don't doubt that a goodly portion of it is or isn't real...it's been trundling across some of the warmest waters the Atlantic Basin can offer, up underneath some descent tropospheric mechanics for intensity at that... 

but, this definitely tends to happen in my memory.  no matter what the system - it seems to at a minimum maintain intensity no matter how ragged it looks, and if given an excuse, triggers are pulled to add categories...  

i could be full of schit - i admit that.  as a science enthusiast and formally educated Meteorologist, i could not in good conscious proceed in any endeavor without maintaining vigil as to the full-of-schitness of all souls that make up this bubbling tension called Humanity..  that said, i still sense a tendency to over-bloat the strength and organization of these, and I think it's a PR move.  interesting - can't say i blame 'em. 

 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah ... well, i don't doubt that a goodly portion of it is or isn't real...it's been trundling across some of the warmest waters the Atlantic Basin can offer, up underneath some descent tropospheric mechanics for intensity at that... 

but, this definitely tends to happen in my memory.  no matter what the system - it seems to at a minimum maintain intensity no matter how ragged it looks, and if given an excuse, triggers are pulled to add categories...  

i could be full of schit - i admit that.  as a science enthusiast and formally educated Meteorologist, i could not in good conscious proceed in any endeavor without maintaining vigil as to the full-of-schitness of all souls that make up this bubbling tension called Humanity..  that said, i sense a tendency to over bloat the strength and organization of these, and it think it's a PR move.  interesting -

Do I think it happens? Yes (see: Sandy, though some of that was tropical vs. non-tropical arguments too). But most of the time we have solid recon data to support the intensity.