Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[CoastalWx]

Def a more westward jog on radar.

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have no idea where that came from. But, that is a horrible comparison. Andrew was a 20 mile wide EF4 across FL.

It could exceed Andrew in total $$, but much more spread out.  It won't be an entire community wiped down to slabs...more typical flooding and wind damage

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

It could exceed Andrew in total $$, but much more spread out.  It won't be an entire community wiped down to slabs...more typical flooding and wind damage

Right, but the public sees houses wiped clean when you say that. 

[butterfish55]

I was a freshman at U of Miami for Andrew.  It was crazy...140+ mph winds are no joke.  Sounded like a jet engine.  Hope those who decided not to evacuate know what they're in for

[MarkO]

I'm more concerned about the storm surge than the wind. IF it breaches the beaches and floods the intercoastal areas (I'm thinking Cocoa Beach) it could be as costly as Andrew. But if it takes an easterly track, all bets are off. 

 

On radar, it looks to be moving almost due west (280ish) in last couple frames unless it's wobble, wobble:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=amx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Right, but the public sees houses wiped clean when you say that. 

That's going to happen in many coastal areas and Homes will lose roofs even 20 miles inland 

[ORH_wxman]

Western end of Grand Bahama is getting crushed by the eyewall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

NW quad looks better

[ROOSTA]

I'd be remiss not to mention a big shout-out and thanks to all the well wishers.
Hush, hush I thought I heard her calling my name, back to hush mode.

or another classic
Kay sera sera whatever will be will be...killin it

Man do I need some sleep....  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That's going to happen in many coastal areas and Homes will lose roofs even 20 miles inland 

 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That's going to happen in many coastal areas and Homes will lose roofs even 20 miles inland 

Thanks for warning.

[CoastalWx]

I'm not big on the HRRR and tropicals, but for all you damage fetish mongers, the HRRR is it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm not big on the HRRR and tropicals, but for all you damage fetish mongers, the HRRR is it.

You're never big on the exciting scenario

[wxeyeNH]

I have not been following this thread today, have been watching the thread in the tropical section.  Posts every 30 seconds from so many newbies that don't know what there talking about.  So I'm over here now.

Couple of thoughts.  Wow, Freeport with 55,000 people are really going to get a devastating hit.

The eye could stay 25 miles off shore but the left eyewall could easily stay right on the beaches.  The main problem with that is unlike Andrew that came in directly east to west with a devastating fairly narrow damage path, this path would be less severe in any one given spot but would extend a very long way up the coast.  Net result is a net larger hurricane event.

My sister in law just called from Sanford Florida.  20 miles inland.  She was literally crying with fear.  She kept saying that the TV people are saying this could easily be a Cat 5 with 165mph winds.  The family is in pure panic mode.  I kept trying to calm her down and promising her that she is not going to see 165mph winds, not even 100mph winds.  Told her that the house will not collapse but expect tree damage, power outages and the like.  In the last 15 years everything in the media is over hype.  Yes this is a very major storm but in my opinion not the biblical event that it is being made out to be.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're never big on the exciting scenario

The vest is always buttoned up to the top and tight around the belly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The vest is always buttoned up to the top and tight around the belly.

Caution...careful..

[CoastalWx]

    Well, sometimes you have to reel in the sheep when they escape the pen.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Caution...careful..

Always keep the shirt tucked in. Don't want any wildness 

[Hoth]

11 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I'd be remiss not to mention a big shout-out and thanks to all the well wishers.
Hush, hush I thought I heard her calling my name, back to hush mode.

or another classic
Kay sera sera whatever will be will be...killin it

Man do I need some sleep....  

We're all with you, dude. Best of luck down there.

[eekuasepinniW]

Lightning came to an abrupt stop. 

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

    Well, sometimes you have to reel in the sheep when they escape the pen.

lol and you're more than often correct.  Unfortunately in weather, the most extreme scenario usually isn't the correct one.

[MarkO]

Eye replacement underway

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol and you're more than often correct.  Unfortunately in weather, the most extreme scenario usually isn't the correct one.

That wasn't even my goal. But you have to have some real talk with these storms in discuss the scenarios unfolding. Not everything has to be catastrophic. 

[Hoth]

I swear someone or other has posted about it undergoing ERC every hour since this thing was north of Aruba.

[mahk_webstah]

46 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The hype down in FL is out of control. I talked with my Uncle who lives in Melbourne, and they are saying it could be like Andrew. Um, no. This is all the crap and circus that comes with these things. 

Ummm yeah it could be.  It could strengthen a bit.  That coast hasn't seen a major hurricane for a long time.  If the eye goes ashore and moves along or just inside the coast the overall damage could equal or exceed Andrew.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Ummm yeah it could be.  It could strengthen a bit.  That coast hasn't seen a major hurricane for a long time.  If the eye goes ashore and moves along or just inside the coast the overall damage could equal or exceed Andrew.

Andrew in the sense of leveling structures? No. NHC has it at 130 at landfall. 

[mahk_webstah]

29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Western end of Grand Bahama is getting crushed by the eyewall.

just saw a SSE gust to 120 at Freeport

[monadnocks]

44 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I'm not letting my guard down until the center passes my LAT. Still in the crosshair. On/off (to be or not to be) no matter it's still going to be a good blow here.

Figure I only have a handful of hours left with power. A collective sigh desends across the forum, I know...

We're all hoping you come through with lights on, plenty of phone power and with great stories but no damage.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Andrew in the sense of leveling structures? No. NHC has it at 130 at landfall. 

Well....with all due respect, the NHC had Andrew at 140 mph until about a decade after LF.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Andrew in the sense of leveling structures? No. NHC has it at 130 at landfall. 

Yeah not gonna happen. Andrew-sequel damage that is. The total cost could rival it if it takes the perfect track with the eyewall hugging the coastline for 300 miles but it would be lesser damage spread out over a larger area that makes the $$ similar....that and we also have a ton more wealth to damage in the first place versus 1992. Coastal development was crazy in the past two decades. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Andrew in the sense of leveling structures? No. NHC has it at 130 at landfall. 

Well how do they know 130 at landfall?   If the eye is tightening and the storm strengthens a bit it could be stronger.  Also, storm surge could be a huge issue on that coast.  This could destroy structures if the wind doesn't.  So in the end the damage could be worse, and quite possibly a lot more spread out if it goes up the coast.  Looks to me like it has wobbled west a bit.