Tracking Hurricane Matthew and any potential impacts to New England

[OceanStWx]

Maybe it's just because I live in a world of probability, but I'm a bigger fan of saying you can die if you don't evacuate rather than you will die. Because the truth is the vast majority of people won't die during a weather event, and it just dulls the message for later events. Like Scott eluded to, we may save lives today, but at what cost tomorrow?

[Amped]

Anything can kill you just a matter of odds, and everyone will die eventually. Both phrases are useless.

[Hazey]

Hype sells and unfortunately over hype will kill someday.

The only thing I hope dies, is this storm. Way too much effort was put into this thing.

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, Amped said:

Anything can kill you just a matter of odds, and everyone will die eventually. Both phrases are useless.

That's a lot different than saying you will die if you don't evacuate. Because while everyone will die, most people won't die while riding out a hurricane. And when people don't die while riding out a hurricane, they are more likely to stay the next time a serious threat approaches.

[ORH_wxman]

34 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ah yes, then there is this kind of talk that I'm just seeing for the first time I can remember in this event. Sure my top level boss may technically be Obama, but I can assure you he has no idea who I am. I'm lucky if my local boss' boss knows who I am. So I have definitely never, ever received any sort of pressure to "hype" an extreme event to help the climate change cause. Nor do I think the NHC is goosing the intensity of storms to help climate change hypotheses either.

If you told me that they held the intensities higher to get people to take storms more seriously, then I might be able to believe a tiny piece of that.

 

Yeah most of the people who use hurricanes to push a climate agenda are the blogs and activists...you won't see it from the NHC or NWS. Hell, if anything, the NHC would be less likely considering their SOO is Chris Landsea, who has made his disgust with overhyping hurricane attribution to climate change well known. (making him an enemy of activists in the process)

[Whineminster]

So happens to the storm after the loop de loop?

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The same thing happened with the blizzard 2 years ago when you had NWS still posting graphics about apocalyptic 24-36" snow totals from NYC to S VT when Mets and knowledgeable posters (Messenger comes to mind) in the SNE forum had been saying no way for hours.

Hype may be part of it but also limitations at NWS offices in terms of limited staffing etc and the ability to constantly update websites and social media could be part of the issue.  That's just a guess on my part.  

I doubt any normal person is going to check their weather on weather forums lol

The Euro kept showing ridiculous amounts for the east coast.

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

So happens to the storm after the loop de loop?

That's even if it loops. Some models are not showing it now.

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah most of the people who use hurricanes to push a climate agenda are the blogs and activists...you won't see it from the NHC or NWS. Hell, if anything, the NHC would be less likely considering their SOO is Chris Landsea, who has made his disgust with overhyping hurricane attribution to climate change well known.

I mean just think about those statements that were being tossed around yesterday from Drudge and Limbaugh. If the NHC was artificially upping intensities to back climate change, it would have to be over multiple seasons and multiple administrations. How deep is the conspiracy? Ha

After all, you won't find many scientists that will attribute one or even a handful of events to climate change.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean just think about those statements that were being tossed around yesterday from Drudge and Limbaugh. If the NHC was artificially upping intensities to back climate change, it would have to be over multiple seasons and multiple administrations. How deep is the conspiracy? Ha

After all, you won't find many scientists that will attribute one or even a handful of events to climate change.

 

I mean, literally probably the top expert on hurricane climatology wrote this piece on the NOAA website:

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/

 

They should probably research their targets a little bit more.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I mean, literally probably the top expert on hurricane climatology wrote this piece on the NOAA website:

 

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/

 

They should probably research their targets a little bit more.

But it made for some salacious tweets!

I know this isn't the political forum, but it scares me that even a tiny fraction of the populous has been able to make this weather event political in nature. As if our job wasn't hard enough, now forecasters need to convince people that they aren't red or blue.

[ApacheTrout]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean just think about those statements that were being tossed around yesterday from Drudge and Limbaugh. If the NHC was artificially upping intensities to back climate change, it would have to be over multiple seasons and multiple administrations. How deep is the conspiracy? Ha

After all, you won't find many scientists that will attribute one or even a handful of events to climate change.

Thank you, well said.

[Professional Lurker]

This thing hadn't moved much in the last several frames.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I don't know..... what is this missing a more serious impact by less than 50-75 miles? I think you almost have to brace for worst case because if you don't... and it happens, the consequences may be far worse.

sometimes you have to word it strongly to get people out for their own safety. If they seriously view it as a crying wolf scenario, they are pretty stupid. 'Most people would be happy they took the proper precautions and things turned out better than expected 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The people with the "the government won't tell me what to do!!", this changes nothing for them. 

They are going to find fault with the way this was handled no matter what. If people want to  be like that, nothing you can do.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Professional Lurker said:

This thing hadn't moved much in the last several frames.

Sent from my SM-G920P using Tapatalk
 

and on the last 2 radar frames the deeper convection with the west eyewall is onshore from Daytona north.  I was just in St. Aug beach and I am very concerned for them up to Jacksonville.  They are getting pounded hour after hour and if that eyewall comes into St. Aug and  Jax it could be horrible.

[MarkO]

The Jacksonville area is getting pounded with rain and winds out of the east. Lots of development in flood zones. All that rain and stormwater has got to go somewhere. Unfortunately the winds are preventing it from going out to sea. I still believe we're going to see huge $$$. BTW, FEMA is broke. So we're on the hook.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

The Jacksonville area is getting pounded with rain and winds out of the east. Lots of development in flood zones. All that rain and stormwater has got to go somewhere. Unfortunately the winds are preventing it from going out to sea. I still believe we're going to see huge $$$. BTW, FEMA is broke. So we're on the hook.

 

JAX area might be the worst in this storm because of the flooding potential and the St. John's waterway. But still, they dodged a more serious bullet if this had been like 30-40 west.

[Dan]

The owners of a bed and breakfast in St. Augustine, Florida, decided to ride out the storm -- with a total of 20 people now trapped inside. They told Russell Colburn of Action News Jax there are kids inside, too.

https://twitter.com/RussellANjax/status/784413281121251329/video/1

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, Dan said:

The owners of a bed and breakfast in St. Augustine, Florida, decided to ride out the storm -- with a total of 20 people now trapped inside. They told Russell Colburn of Action News Jax there are kids inside, too.

https://twitter.com/RussellANjax/status/784413281121251329/video/1

Wow, that video is at least an hour old, maybe a couple? If the street was already under a foot plus, with a velocity like that, I wouldn't be surprised if it rises a few more feet. Thank God the wind is not blowing off roofs.

[Master of Disaster]

6 minutes ago, Dan said:

The owners of a bed and breakfast in St. Augustine, Florida, decided to ride out the storm -- with a total of 20 people now trapped inside. They told Russell Colburn of Action News Jax there are kids inside, too.

https://twitter.com/RussellANjax/status/784413281121251329/video/1

So damn stupid and reckless. 

[Dan]

And 1st confirmed US Death:

 

A 50-year-old woman suffered a cardiac arrest and died overnight in Florida, the St. Lucie Emergency Operations Center said. Officials are calling her death storm-related because the St. Lucie Fire District had to stop responding to emergency calls due to Hurricane Matthew's fierce winds.

[OceanStWx]

This is on the opposite side of the county from St. Augustine. So the surge is likely higher downtown.

[MarkO]

I "think" Major is a 500 year event... and it's still rising! I wonder what time is high tide? I want to say it was around 11AM farther south.

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The same thing happened with the blizzard 2 years ago when you had NWS still posting graphics about apocalyptic 24-36" snow totals from NYC to S VT when Mets and knowledgeable posters (Messenger comes to mind) in the SNE forum had been saying no way for hours.

Hype may be part of it but also limitations at NWS offices in terms of limited staffing etc and the ability to constantly update websites and social media could be part of the issue.  That's just a guess on my part.  

Assuming this refers to 1/27-28/15, those amounts were spot-on in the eastern portion of the forecast impact area - BOX to PWM, ORH to ASH.  Points west and south, busted.

[Dan]

That is a ton of water coming in both in the form of rainfall and the surge.  That could end up being the big story the flooding North of Cape Canaveral.

[Ginx snewx]

Most of us, being educated and well versed in the weather world, have to make decisions based on what we know and what we determine. We are among the few who realize the nuances that happen in hurricanes. I always ask myself when I see the statements coming out, what would I do if I lived on the beach or near the beach in X situation. I evacuated for Gloria against my best wishes and wish I never had. Based on every single piece of information I digested  (and I was a whore on this storm) I advised my sister in JAX to beat feet. She did and I am glad she did. The decisons have to made 18-24 hrs in advance, now take yourself back 24 hrs, when there were an abundance of signs Matthew would crash into Florida. I see people saying here, I knew it was East when it went over Freeport, guess what? Thats basically a Monday morning QB call in evacuation time. This story isn't over though, all that water being is pushed into that bowl of a coastline. 

[MarkO]

Thousands (or even tens of thousands) of homes in NE Florida are in the 100 year flood plain. This is just an example of St. Augustine. The floods could potentially cover all areas in blue, maybe even some in Orange (500 year event). If this occurs, this will be pretty bad folks.

[ForestHillWx]

Aside from Drudge and Limbaugh, we also have David Allen of MSNBC and the big kahuna herself, HRC, linking Hermine to extreme weather due to climate change. All sides of the spectrum speak in hyperbole.

That's why we come here, to get fact. At least we try to.

[Dan]

16 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Thousands (or even tens of thousands) of homes in NE Florida are in the 100 year flood plain. This is just an example of St. Augustine. The floods could potentially cover all areas in blue, maybe even some in Orange (500 year event). If this occurs, this will be pretty bad folks.

With that storm seeming to stall very near St Augustine.  They could be in for some big trouble.  This is what the storm will be remembered for in Florida.

[Master of Disaster]

Anyone hear from Josh in a while? How's he making out?