powderfreak Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I've had zero interest in this thing until at least tomorrow night. Model runs are only slightly better than useless still at this point in terms of an NE potential impact. I can't remember the last time we had a 20+ page thread for a weather event not even inside of 7 days yet for New England, haha. Not sure that's ever happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 There are still two GEFS camps in the mean. Easy to see. One shore of HSE and the other into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 AS far as I can tell, this GFS oper run is actually further west in the MA between D5 and 7.5. It's more so interacting indirectly with land down the coast, too. this solution is more of a manageable heavy rain and wind event up this way - if taken verbatim... Some impressive rains and probable flooding, and wind that would do some damage But both aspects less than prior runs. Ironically ... close to an egg-in-the-face run, because after a week of consternation, what if the thing ends up coming on-board S of us? It is not out of the realm of possibilities, of course. enters sad trumpet - I don't personally have much opinion change at this point; sort of in Will's camp on this - although, I disagree a little on one intimation: monitoring up to this point is not really futile. I don't believe that is the case. one thing that is on the table; should this thing right turn and steam roll on up - there are a lot of models that get awards for nailing this like ...10 days out - if perhaps contesting alone, that has value. interesting. Sandy was pretty well handled at extended lead, too - whose to say this one can't be? Also, the hard right idea in its self was pretty unanimously depicted days ago, so the models are already showing some remarkable skill ... at least to this point. Let's get the right turn going heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 anyone else notice Matthew suddenly stalled over the last two hours? I believe the turn to the N is likely ensuing - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Better get that leaf peeping in before Matthew arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: GEFS right up the coast Navgem slams the Northeast That is one epic NAVGEM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, bobbutts said: That is one epic NAVGEM run. previous run was slightly better ... probably the difference of 10 trees and 4 roofs as oppose to 12 and 6, but the previous run was similar depth/intensity but over the Quabbin - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 EURO is way West by day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Pretty big jump NW between 120 and 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 948mb off the FL coast moving NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Will just miss getting captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I have this foreboding feeling. Stakes are high being on the cusp of possible devastating damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Will just miss getting captured. Yup, close enough to the Outerbanks this run to give them a buzz cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 A partial cave towards GFS but it still looks like it's a bit slow and will miss the trough and escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Almost 24 hrs slower than GFS. No consistency run to run. At 240 hrs yesterday at 12z it was just east of FL in the Bahamas, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 The Euro is so far West that it's going to make landfall in Nova Scotia. It's night and day compared to the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Euro did come much closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: I can't remember the last time we had a 20+ page thread for a weather event not even inside of 7 days yet for New England, haha. Not sure that's ever happened. Sandy. Almost every sub forum had a Sandy thread well before it had even formed. Like October 21-22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: What makes it just miss? Is it the timing or influence of the low out in the Atlantic? A bit slower than the GFS..might be because of the ULL hanging over us and keeping the storm motion slow to the south. If it were faster or if the ULL moved out...probably would come closer. As usual when you are 7-8 days out...tiny nuances are going to be tough to model and that will equal chaos when it comes to storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 I can't remember the last time we had a 20+ page thread for a weather event not even inside of 7 days yet for New England, haha. Not sure that's ever happened.All of last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 hour ago, JC-CT said: All of last winter lol well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 lol well played.Just stating the truth my friend :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Looks like its the CMC/EURO vs all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Looks like Jamaica may dodge a truly devastating bullet. Aside from some high ginxy surf and rip currents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Looks like Jamaica may dodge a truly devastating bullet. Aside from some high ginxy surf and rip currents. Man, your signature is longer than your posts. I pulled a ligament scrolling through it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 Just now, ApacheTrout said: Man, your signature is longer than your posts. I pulled a ligament scrolling through it You must have a stroke reading John's prose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 5 pm advisory is out and it appears the turn has happened - or is beginning ... NW at 3 kts after doing a small scaled pinwheel. 150 mph wind and down to 940 mb again. I think it may strengthen more legit than the circumstantial wind velocity on the 11 pm last night but we'll see.. just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 It seems not to be on many people's radar at the moment. Hype prob won't start until Monday if needed at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It seems not to be on many people's radar at the moment. Hype prob won't start until Monday if needed at all. "hype" is never needed ... i know what you meant - notification in general. but that's a problem with media for profit. they'll have no compunctions about using something ...anything and plying the impressionable masses into 'tuning in' Heh, hurricanes for profit - yep, get ready for the 'storm surge' of media coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted October 1, 2016 Share Posted October 1, 2016 20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You must have a stroke reading John's prose I tell the wife to charge up the defib device and have it on standbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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