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PTC Matthew


PaEasternWX
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Euro on crack with the loop-de-loop?  Does this make any physical sense?  

I know this is way off topic, but it makes me think of this...

https://www.google.com/search?q=airplane+pulling+plug&biw=1280&bih=600&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwjFqZuE8MHPAhUCHR4KHR6UBrcQ_AUIBigB#imgrc=mBNvJAquit52RM%3A

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1 minute ago, wxmx said:

If it misses the trough, and the trough lifts that fast, then yes, as ridging would build pretty fast, blocking and then pulling Matthew SW

The high res Euro actually shows the remnant circulation completely in tact when it makes landfall a second time in SE FL at 174hrs. It then amazingly gets carried into the Gulf of Mexico. 

Given how vigorous the circulation is, wouldn't at all be surprised if the Euro was weakening Matthew too quickly.

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2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

I've honestly NEVER seen the Euro this inconsistent with a major storm before.    It's usually a rock in what it depicts.

Petition to bring the old Euro back. It was better years ago.

The 12Z Euro Run is very similar to one of the 0Z Euro Ensemble members, though that member ended up hitting the Yucatan after the loop. 

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1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

This new Euro has more tendency to have wild run to run swings for sure 

 

1 minute ago, Thesolmachine said:

Can someone help this weenie here understand why the Euro is having this thing do a Loop back into florida. Is it essentially saying that the ridge ain't going to pick it up and The caribbean wind current is going to pick it back up and throw it at Florida again? 

 

The new Euro 'actin up' ...either has to do with the newer updates it's had done during the last year or so... or climate change and generally 'weaker flows' being harder to predict.   (even though GFS doesn't seem to be having a problem predicting them)

Or a combination of both. 

 

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2 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Don't toss an entire run because of a weird mid-long range, that's lazy and stupid analysis. Short term is still applicable. 

Even the short term forecast by Florida is a definite deviation though from most other 12z guidance and the early 18z hurricane models looked slightly east as well, emphasis on slightly.  

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