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NNE Fall Thread

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Haha that's better. Blowing snow grains here tonight. The winds here this evening have been stronger than anything I saw with the weekend system. 

Nice, I may see some flakes late week possibly, Winds were meh for this event as a whole here, I did not even see a gust in the 30's

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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Posted

If we hadn’t seen our first frozen precipitation and snow accumulations of the season over the weekend, it looks today would have taken care of it.  We’ve had various raindrops and sleet pellets coming down from yesterday evening into today in our area, and this morning I found some leftover pellets still sitting on the snowboard.  As of the past hour or so the precipitation has been light snow, and I didn’t see any accumulation at the house before I left, but flakes were definitely accumulating on cars when I was leaving the Waterbury Park and Ride this morning.

 

There’s lots of great reading with regard to snow potential in the BTV NWS forecast discussion – I hadn’t really looked into much going forward and didn’t know there was anything substantial expected, but as I read, the potential snow totals just kept getting more notable:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

730 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2016

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

As of 725 AM EDT Tuesday...Hi resolution composite reflectivity progs show popcorn nature to returns...with greatest concentration over the northern mountains. Will continue to mention likely pops northern green mountains from Mansfield to Jay Peak with a dusting to several inches possible.

 

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

As of 411 AM EDT Tuesday...Early thoughts on storm totals through Friday show the highest elevations the big snow winners with 6-8" along the Green Mountain spine, to 8-12" across the high peaks of the Adirondacks. Below 1500 feet, a dusting to perhaps 2" is possible outside of the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

It's so nice after last winter.  It feels more normal.  Like it's snowing right now in my flood lights at home.  These snow showers are building a bit on composite radar, not heavy but a steady flurry haha.  

Wintery appeal is the way to say it.

 

I hadn’t thought about it much until I read your comments, but reading what you wrote and being out in the flakes this morning had me realizing how weird last winter felt relative to normal in that sense.  Yes, many times they’re just “mood” flakes or whatever, but when that’s a component of your climate/location, a winter like last year’s has an even more dramatic effect.

 

I realize that I track that parameter in my data to some degree thanks to CoCoRaHS, it’s “Days with a trace or more of snowfall” (which essentially equates to “Days with flakes in the air”) and I was surprised to find that last season wasn’t nearly as low as I would have thought.  It was below average, and indeed more than 1 S.D. below the mean, but only just so, and 2011-2012 was actually lower.  I put the numbers together for the past six seasons since I’ve been reporting for CoCoRaHS:

 

Days with a trace or more of snowfall, Station VT-WS-19

Season:  Days

2010-2011:  99

2011-2012:  75

2012-2013:  97

2013-2014:  98

2014-2015:  101

2015-2016:  80

Mean:  92

S.D:  11

Median:  98

 

So I guess last season wasn’t as horrible as I perceived it to be in the mood snow department, at least “by the numbers”, but I do know a lot of last year’s days with flakes would have also been potentially brief front end snow that turned to rain, or those backend skiffs of flakes with a cold front coming through after a warmup, vs. those classic Green Mountain Spine days with constant “wintry appeal” flakes.  That may be the real difference with last year that the numbers don’t reveal.  I’d actually have to drill down into the individual observations to pull that out.

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J.Spin

J.Spin

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9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Snowing nicely for the last 60-90 minutes.  Dusting on the cars up here at the ski area.

Its cold...31F at the base and 21F at the summit.  

More wintery week than anytime last December.

 

Yeah, I’ve got the Web Cam running at the house and I can see that there’s a steady stream of flakes coming down – it’s kind of nice to be getting back into that mode of winter in the mountains:

 

25OCT16A.gif

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adk

adk

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38 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

I hadn’t thought about it much until I read your comments, but reading what you wrote and being out in the flakes this morning had me realizing how weird last winter felt relative to normal in that sense.  Yes, many times they’re just “mood” flakes or whatever, but when that’s a component of your climate/location, a winter like last year’s has an even more dramatic effect.

 

I realize that I track that parameter in my data to some degree thanks to CoCoRaHS, it’s “Days with a trace or more of snowfall” (which essentially equates to “Days with flakes in the air”) and I was surprised to find that last season wasn’t nearly as low as I would have thought.  It was below average, and indeed more than 1 S.D. below the mean, but only just so, and 2011-2012 was actually lower.  I put the numbers together for the past six seasons since I’ve been reporting for CoCoRaHS:

 

Days with a trace or more of snowfall, Station VT-WS-19

Season:  Days

2010-2011:  99

2011-2012:  75

2012-2013:  97

2013-2014:  98

2014-2015:  101

2015-2016:  80

Mean:  92

S.D:  11

Median:  98

 

So I guess last season wasn’t as horrible as I perceived it to be in the mood snow department, at least “by the numbers”, but I do know a lot of last year’s days with flakes would have also been potentially brief front end snow that turned to rain, or those backend skiffs of flakes with a cold front coming through after a warmup, vs. those classic Green Mountain Spine days with constant “wintry appeal” flakes.  That may be the real difference with last year that the numbers don’t reveal.  I’d actually have to drill down into the individual observations to pull that out.

It's interesting that 2011-2012 had less "flake" days than last year.  Part of that I think had to do with the fact that the 2011-2012 winter effectively ended on like March 8th when it was 80F for a week straight and last year, while "winter" was terrible and generally snowless, late March, April and May were cold and had many days with at least a little flurry or snow shower activity. 

Nice to see another round of snow showers building in.  This is what VT is all about. Cold cloudy weather where each marginal wave produces 2-3" of fluff along the spine. 

 

 

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tamarack

tamarack

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

 

I hadn’t thought about it much until I read your comments, but reading what you wrote and being out in the flakes this morning had me realizing how weird last winter felt relative to normal in that sense.  Yes, many times they’re just “mood” flakes or whatever, but when that’s a component of your climate/location, a winter like last year’s has an even more dramatic effect.

 

I realize that I track that parameter in my data to some degree thanks to CoCoRaHS, it’s “Days with a trace or more of snowfall” (which essentially equates to “Days with flakes in the air”) and I was surprised to find that last season wasn’t nearly as low as I would have thought.  It was below average, and indeed more than 1 S.D. below the mean, but only just so, and 2011-2012 was actually lower.  I put the numbers together for the past six seasons since I’ve been reporting for CoCoRaHS:

 

Days with a trace or more of snowfall, Station VT-WS-19

Season:  Days

2010-2011:  99

2011-2012:  75

2012-2013:  97

2013-2014:  98

2014-2015:  101

2015-2016:  80

Mean:  92

S.D:  11

Median:  98

 

So I guess last season wasn’t as horrible as I perceived it to be in the mood snow department, at least “by the numbers”, but I do know a lot of last year’s days with flakes would have also been potentially brief front end snow that turned to rain, or those backend skiffs of flakes with a cold front coming through after a warmup, vs. those classic Green Mountain Spine days with constant “wintry appeal” flakes.  That may be the real difference with last year that the numbers don’t reveal.  I’d actually have to drill down into the individual observations to pull that out.

Quite a lot more trace-plus days in your 'hood than mine, which is no surprise.  The numbers below are from my personal records, obs time 9 PM, as I've not collated my cocorahs reports:

10-11:  76

11-12:  60

12-13:  74

13-14:  72

14-15:  79

15-16:  46

Mean:  66   SD: 10   Median:  71

Most and least of 18 winters came in the most recent two.  10-11 is tied for 2nd with 07-08, while this past winter "leads" by 7 days over 99-00.  For thresholds of 0.1", 1.0", 4.0", 6.0", 07-08 leads in all, tied with 00-01 for 4" and 6", and that earlier season leads with 3 days having 10"+, plus two at 9.0".  11 of 18 have had a calendar day with 10"+ and 2 others had storms into double digits.

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eyewall

eyewall

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33 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Straight up flizzard at times here in downtown Montpelier.

Yeah it was a flizzard from Richmond to Bolton as well and then a little coating up the hill on top of what was left from the previous event. It was in the upper 20's at the Bolton base lodge.

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wxeyeNH

wxeyeNH

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Brian,  sun coming back out.  Vis still down over Ragged just west of you in SW Grafton County.  Had about an hour of flurries but nothing to bring down much.  Some big flakes too but activity seems to be drying out.  You may have to wait another couple of days for your first flakes.  

Trying to decipher what might happen with this next system.  One thing seems sure.  Between the last system and the next one we have finally broken the back of the drought somewhat.

 

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tamarack

tamarack

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1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said:

Brian,  sun coming back out.  Vis still down over Ragged just west of you in SW Grafton County.  Had about an hour of flurries but nothing to bring down much.  Some big flakes too but activity seems to be drying out.  You may have to wait another couple of days for your first flakes.  

Trying to decipher what might happen with this next system.  One thing seems sure.  Between the last system and the next one we have finally broken the back of the drought somewhat.

 

Bruised but not broken.  (You did include "somewhat.")  Another inch-plus later this week would be great.

Flakes seen in Farmington, and radar suggests my home area (no one there when my wife called from Farmington) got the same, though the dog and cats probably won't offer any observations.

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