NNE Fall Thread

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, wx2fish said:

I think he used johns nh weather's number. In which case he is on a hill immediately west of the First CT Lake ~1800-1850. There isn't much to the east of route 3 once you get north of Lake Francis other than logging roads/seasonal camps. I'm sure those hills to the east get considerably more than he does

 

 

 

 

i've been snowmobiling up there a few times. totally anecdotal, as I had no way to measure. but you can tell the difference in snow depth from first CT lake to the east. the area around the lake gets plenty of snow, but in low-snow years the difference is quite noticeable. even going up a couple hundred feet in elevation from the 1st CT lake is a big difference.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SJonesWX said:

i've been snowmobiling up there a few times. totally anecdotal, as I had no way to measure. but you can tell the difference in snow depth from first CT lake to the east. the area around the lake gets plenty of snow, but in low-snow years the difference is quite noticeable. even going up a couple hundred feet in elevation from the 1st CT lake is a big difference.

 

I have to imagine that the elevation rise there to the east really assists in upslope...obviously the preservation is better too just being higher up and colder...but they definitely wring out extra moisture when the wind hits that area and is forced to rise. It's kind of fascinating in that it is almost totally unsampled for wx obs. In a place like the Green Mts, we have all those ski resorts so we know exactly what is going on there and even areas around the Presidentials to the south we have decent obs, but we have little to zero observations coming out of that panhandle region of NH.

Probably the closest thing outside of john's weather page in Pittsburg is if we get reliable reports from The Balsam's a little further south toward Dixville Notch...same general spine of terrain sticking up. We'll have to wait until that resort is actually operational again though.

[backedgeapproaching]

42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

http://en-us.topographic-map.com/

 

52 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Darn, what is the link for those topo maps? I thought I had it, but cannot find it. Those are terrific.

Damn, I also have looking for that top map since last year when someone posted it, sweet-thanks.

[Hitman]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Looks like critters like the snow stake, 4-5 new?

http://www.sugarbush.com/mountain/webcams/

That's two events with no apparent drifting on the stake.  I think they must have moved it.  I dont know when I'm going to be up there to check it though.

[SJonesWX]

53 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I have to imagine that the elevation rise there to the east really assists in upslope...obviously the preservation is better too just being higher up and colder...but they definitely wring out extra moisture when the wind hits that area and is forced to rise. It's kind of fascinating in that it is almost totally unsampled for wx obs. In a place like the Green Mts, we have all those ski resorts so we know exactly what is going on there and even areas around the Presidentials to the south we have decent obs, but we have little to zero observations coming out of that panhandle region of NH.

Probably the closest thing outside of john's weather page in Pittsburg is if we get reliable reports from The Balsam's a little further south toward Dixville Notch...same general spine of terrain sticking up. We'll have to wait until that resort is actually operational again though.

there is a trail that goes up to the border crossing at Rt 3. the amount of snow on that trail is obscene. there is a little lake right along the trail that just gets absolutely buried. 

Edit: that little lake is Third CT lake right at the border

[dendrite]

I can't recall if I posted it (I probably did), but my co-worker was up at Rhubarb Pond and Boundary Pond a couple of weeks ago. That has to be a haul to get up there. I've never been north of Dummer/Errol, but I'd imagine it's another couple of hours from there to those ponds on the NE tip.

[SJonesWX]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't recall if I posted it (I probably did), but my co-worker was up at Rhubarb Pond and Boundary Pond a couple of weeks ago. That has to be a haul to get up there. I've never been north of Dummer/Errol, but I'd imagine it's another couple of hours from there to those ponds on the NE tip.

it's a 3.5 hour drive from CON to first CT lake, that much I know. to get to the northeast points such as Boundary pond, i imagine would take a bit of time. there are not many actual roads that go out that way, mostly just logging roads. it is a Very isolated area.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

there is a trail that goes up to the border crossing at Rt 3. the amount of snow on that trail is obscene. there is a little lake right along the trail that just gets absolutely buried. 

Edit: that little lake is Third CT lake right at the border

4th Lake is almost up around 2700'.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't recall if I posted it (I probably did), but my co-worker was up at Rhubarb Pond and Boundary Pond a couple of weeks ago. That has to be a haul to get up there. I've never been north of Dummer/Errol, but I'd imagine it's another couple of hours from there to those ponds on the NE tip.

 

That area must get absolutely buried. Boundary pond is between 2300-2400 feet on a nice spine of terrain that has a pretty steep drop to the W and NW. That has to be a brutally cold climate too in the winter. Probably have a decent number of CAA days where the temps are like 0F or colder in mid-afternoon.

 

[wx2fish]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I can't recall if I posted it (I probably did), but my co-worker was up at Rhubarb Pond and Boundary Pond a couple of weeks ago. That has to be a haul to get up there. I've never been north of Dummer/Errol, but I'd imagine it's another couple of hours from there to those ponds on the NE tip.

 

Boundary is 15-20 miles off the route 3 then about 1/4 mile hike to the pond...Its out there, but a gorgeous little pond. Ive never made it up that far via snowmobile, but it is possible.

Also, Diamond Ridge/Magallaway Mountain/Stubb hill can all be hiked. Magallaway is the most popular in the summer with a fire tower up on top. Theres a little pond on the top of stubb hill close to ~3400ft. They stock fingerling brook trout by helicopter. 

[wx2fish]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I have to imagine that the elevation rise there to the east really assists in upslope...obviously the preservation is better too just being higher up and colder...but they definitely wring out extra moisture when the wind hits that area and is forced to rise. It's kind of fascinating in that it is almost totally unsampled for wx obs. In a place like the Green Mts, we have all those ski resorts so we know exactly what is going on there and even areas around the Presidentials to the south we have decent obs, but we have little to zero observations coming out of that panhandle region of NH.

Probably the closest thing outside of john's weather page in Pittsburg is if we get reliable reports from The Balsam's a little further south toward Dixville Notch...same general spine of terrain sticking up. We'll have to wait until that resort is actually operational again though.

 

Theres a PWS at Big Diamond Pond in Stewartstown and there used to be a coop there. Its right in the ride line over 2k, just a little south of Pittsburg. Id have to look it up again, but I think it has data for 10 years or so. Small sample size, but it averaged something absurd like 230" or something.

[Lava Rock]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

One can't even fathom the snow pack east of Pittsburgh unless you have seen it first hand, Its prolific in most cases, It would have to be measured in feet over the course of winter

by friday they'll have already accumulated almost half my entire snowfall last year.

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

by friday they'll have already accumulated almost half my entire snowfall last year.

No doubt, I also think the whole WNW zone of ME will do quite well too

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

 

Theres a PWS at Big Diamond Pond in Stewartstown and there used to be a coop there. Its right in the ride line over 2k, just a little south of Pittsburg. Id have to look it up again, but I think it has data for 10 years or so. Small sample size, but it averaged something absurd like 230" or something.

This is the guy.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=E0498&time=GMT
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/diamondpond/index.php?view=summary&headers=1
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNHSTEWA2

[wx2fish]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

This is the guy.

http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=E0498&time=GMT
http://www.weatherlink.com/user/diamondpond/index.php?view=summary&headers=1
https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KNHSTEWA2

Yeah thats him. Runs close to johnsnhweather in temps. Lets get his snow obs back

[SJonesWX]

A couple pittsburg pics from 2015. First one is the border cut at boundary pond. At the bottom of the pic you can see the marker, which I think they are usually around 4 feet tall. this is right at the edge of the pond.

picture from the top of Diamond ridge looking back towards first Conn lake.

and here we have a wizard. was on the logging road leading up to boundary pond. Literally in the middle of no where.

[dendrite]

Looking at the border crossing again...that's a pretty large U-shaped wall with nowhere for the air to go but up. Anything with a northerly component must funnel right up the crossing. It's probably a lot like Jay where they do well with almost any direction.

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

A couple pittsburg pics from 2015. First one is the border cut at boundary pond. At the bottom of the pic you can see the marker, which I think they are usually around 4 feet tall. this is right at the edge of the pond.

picture from the top of Diamond ridge looking back towards first Conn lake.

and here we have a wizard. was on the logging road leading up to boundary pond. Literally in the middle of no where.

 

Those markers can leave a mark if your not paying attention, We ride the border cut on the east side of the St Johns River and Canada and have had a few guys wreck whacking them when they are barely visible.

[J.Spin]

37 minutes ago, Hitman said:

That's two events with no apparent drifting on the stake.  I think they must have moved it.  I dont know when I'm going to be up there to check it though.

 

Have you guys noticed that the BTV NWS is now referencing the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam in their forecast discussions?

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

744 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Deep cyclonic moist northwest flow which produced 4 inches of snow atop Lincoln Peak per latest web cam will slowly breakdown today as weak high pres builds into the region.

 

That’s so fantastic to have roughly real-time visualization of the snowfall up there – watching the past 24 hours of archive gives one a real appreciation for the pulses of snow that have come through the area in the past day:

 

 

They’ll have to have that board set up like the Snowbird SnowCam system where it can adapt to the snowpack as it increases, because snowpack at that elevation in a protected spot is going to get incredibly deep most seasons.  Presumably they’ll have someone assigned to clearing it, because I know from dealing with my own collection boards and web cam that you have to be diligent in an environment like this where we get such frequent snow and various other winter events.  Pure snow isn’t a big deal to clear, that just means being diligent with respect to daily chores and getting to the board, but mixed and refrozen events can be an absolute nightmare.  Snowbird shouldn’t have to deal with that too often during their regular season in their climate, but it’s definitely something to think about with respect to snowboard maintenance.  Being able to swap out to a fresh board with a place to thaw the other is what I’ve found to be the best, because scraping is often not practical and sometimes essentially impossible.  Hopefully we’ll get to hear some of the details on their procedures at some point.

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Looking at the border crossing again...that's a pretty large U-shaped wall with nowhere for the air to go but up. Anything with a northerly component must funnel right up the crossing. It's probably a lot like Jay where they do well with almost any direction.

 

Yeah...the U shape is actually really good for LL convergence too. We really need a weenie site there.

[powderfreak]

19 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

 

Have you guys noticed that the BTV NWS is now referencing the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam in their forecast discussions?

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

744 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...Deep cyclonic moist northwest flow which produced 4 inches of snow atop Lincoln Peak per latest web cam will slowly breakdown today as weak high pres builds into the region.

 

That’s so fantastic to have roughly real-time visualization of the snowfall up there – watching the past 24 hours of archive gives one a real appreciation for the pulses of snow that have come through the area in the past day:

 

 

They’ll have to have that board set up like the Snowbird SnowCam system where it can adapt to the snowpack as it increases, because snowpack at that elevation in a protected spot is going to get incredibly deep most seasons.  Presumably they’ll have someone assigned to clearing it, because I know from dealing with my own collection boards and web cam that you have to be diligent in an environment like this where we get such frequent snow and various other winter events.  Pure snow isn’t a big deal to clear, that just means being diligent with respect to daily chores and getting to the board, but mixed and refrozen events can be an absolute nightmare.  Snowbird shouldn’t have to deal with that too often during their regular season in their climate, but it’s definitely something to think about with respect to snowboard maintenance.  Being able to swap out to a fresh board with a place to thaw the other is what I’ve found to be the best, because scraping is often not practical and sometimes essentially impossible.  Hopefully we’ll get to hear some of the details on their procedures at some point.

Yeah it's an awesome set-up.  The lighting too is crazy.

My only advice to them (if I would advise someone doing this) will be to have an ice scrapper hanging in a tree nearby to get the board truly clear.

In the initial image there really isn't any new snow but they didn't clear near the actual Stake so they started with roughly an inch prior to it snowing (I've run into this problem plenty with my boards so I have a nice ice scraper to get an even surface).

The other advice is to make sure not to grow snowbanks on either side of it.  It doesn't look like drifting but it is, as where the board is will "fill in" the 4" hole as seen above.  If you loop it today, you can see the snow on the board grows faster than the snowbanks on either side.  Mother Nature will try as hard as possible to make it all level.

Compare this to the original image and the little snow piles are gone and there's no difference in the height of the snow on the board and the snow around the board anymore.

Snow will want to "fill in" the hole left by the clearing of the board (drifting even with very light winds it'll want to fill that in) and then once that happens the whole snowpack will rise together.  If the starting snow depths around the measuring surface are 4" higher than the board, when the snow is done that should still be around 4" higher (in this image I'd think the snow around would be more like 10" deep if it started at 4" and added 6" new).

The snow on the measuring surface rose much faster than the little push piles around the stake.  That's where the "floating" board comes in...one that sits on the old surface instead of starting in a fixed position that will continue to be like a hole in the snowpack as the depths grow around it.

[wx2fish]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah...the U shape is actually really good for LL convergence too. We really need a weenie site there.

The border crossing is manned like 18 hours a day as far as I know. They completely redid the building a couple years ago and its pretty good sized. You can even cross  via snowmobile. You wouldnt think it would be a big deal to measure snow during the winter there and put up a weather station, unless they somehow consider that a security concern.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

The border crossing is manned like 18 hours a day as far as I know. They completely redid the building a couple years ago and its pretty good sized. You can even cross there via snowmobile. You wouldnt think it would be a big deal to measure snow during the winter there and put up a weather station, unless they somehow consider that a security concern.

 

I checked the Diamond Pond coop you mentioned (obviously well south of the border region) and their worst year from 1998-1999 through 2010-2011 was 174.6" in 2009-2010. They averaged 230.1" with a high of 293.6" in 2000-2001. They also had 108.5" in one month in December 2003....too bad the rest of winter was a dud for snowfall up there because that had a great shot at 300+.

 

I have no doubt that the border crossing region we are currently discussing is better than Diamond Pond while looking at these terrain maps...how much better is the question. I wonder if they average over 250" per season up there. I would have to think there is at least a decent chance they do. You wouldn't think it was a security concern to measure snow considering we do it at major international airports. But who knows. Border Patrol might be weird about that type of stuff. Just get a weenie station set up half a mile down the road.

[CoastalWx]

I can buy the lumber if someone has the power tools.   

[dendrite]

38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Yeah...the U shape is actually really good for LL convergence too. We really need a weenie site there.

Yeah...that's where I was getting at. Plymouth has been working with NHDOT putting RWIS sites all over the state. Maybe they can sneak one up there at the crossing and throw a Judd ultrasonic sensor on it.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I can buy the lumber if someone has the power tools.   

 

I'm in favor of pooling our sub-forum assets and creating the "AMEX New England Winter Camp" up there. We can build one of those ridiculous 10 bedroom log cabins...that way there's always room for anyone who wants to chase events. Mreaves can man it for obs when nobody is around.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I'm in favor of pooling our sub-forum assets and creating the "AMEX New England Winter Camp" up there. We can build one of those ridiculous 10 bedroom log cabins...that way there's always room for anyone who wants to chase events. Mreaves can man it for obs when nobody is around.

Yeah we'll do it right. Don't want it to look like Ray's "beast of a man" shed.  Wx2fish is handy...he's all over it. 

[ORH_wxman]

This area must also be really sick for snow too....the concave ridgeline I went over in red.

 

Though there's probably like 5 people a decade that go into that area. That's about as remote as it gets. There's some roads on the far southwest part where the red lines end, but not much of anything to the northeast.

 

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

I'm in favor of pooling our sub-forum assets and creating the "AMEX New England Winter Camp" up there. We can build one of those ridiculous 10 bedroom log cabins...that way there's always room for anyone who wants to chase events. Mreaves can man it for obs when nobody is around.

  What a life that would be, inn keeper at the Weenie Arms Resort.  Anyway, I have been up to Little Diamond Pond in early March a couple of times.  The local snowmobile club hosts an annual Snodeo at Coleman State Park.  They get crushed with snow.

[J.Spin]

I just took a look at the Mt. Mansfield point forecast for tomorrow into Friday:

 

Thursday

Snow likely, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 28. Breezy, with a southeast wind 13 to 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow before 2am, then rain and snow. Low around 28. Strong and damaging winds, with a southeast wind 55 to 60 mph, with gusts as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Friday

Rain and snow, becoming all snow after 10am. High near 33. Breezy, with a northeast wind 11 to 16 mph becoming north 19 to 24 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

 

Those potential accumulations are right in line with what the forecast discussion was suggesting, and with close to a foot of dense snow at the stake already, another shot like that would mean quite a bit of liquid down.  If this next system really does deliver like that, I have to think that could be the start of the season’s snowpack barring any massive warm-ups.

 

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Over 100 snow guns running top to bottom right now.  Better snowmaking than all of December 2015.

 

You guys are definitely pragmatic when it comes to snow production, and aren’t likely to blow if you feel it’s a waste, so that right there speaks volumes about the possibilities of snow retention going forward.

 

Obviously the natural snowpack at this stage of the season doesn’t have the staying power of manmade, but we’re on the threshold of November now, which is the stage at which the balance quickly tips to snowpack expansion vs. melting at those upper elevations.