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Fall+Banter


Ginx snewx

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Man the models are closing in on a potential storm, but they are not seeing the players on the field correctly, especially that upper level low that moves into MX.  EURO ejects it out with the first polar jet shortwave while the GFS and CMC keep that upper level low stationary over MX, it produces one helluva baroclinic leaf.

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News about contests ...

Hello, I am dropping into all regional forum banter or chat threads to post some information about contests that you may find interesting. 

On the general forum of American Weather Forums, we have a temperature forecast contest that has been going on here since Eastern gave birth to American Weather. We would welcome some new entrants for 2017; the contest is simple to enter and just takes a minute once you've decided on your forecasts. There are nine locations across the U.S. including Boston. We predict anomalies from 1981-2010 normals, and the forecasts are scored promptly at the end of each month. I am drawing your attention to the contest a month in advance of the new contest year for two reasons -- (1) people get very busy and distracted around New Years, and (2) the contest has a four-seasons component for the 12 months starting Dec 2016. So this is a good month to jump in and get in a practice round before 2017. Some of the regulars in the contest include well-known forum members that you'll recognize, and the standards are pretty high (albeit I am dragging them down somewhat). So it's a good place to test out your forecasting insights against some of the better forecasters on American Weather. Here's a portal into that forecast contest thread ...

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/49268-december-2016-temperature-forecast-contest/

 

Meanwhile, one other contest I can recommend if you want to make a snowfall forecast for 25 locations in the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic states for Dec to Mar winter 2016-17. This is a separate website that runs just this contest and storm forecast contests that you can enter with e-mail notification provided to remind you if a storm is brewing. Once again, you would recognize a few names in that contest (recent years have seen 15-20 regular participants) and the standards are pretty good, once again an ideal place to work on your forecasting or show it off depending on where things are at. 

 

 

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/#RULES

That's the link for the Northeast U.S. snowfall contest website. 

Just to complete the tour, you may know that the central/western forum is the place to go for annual severe weather forecasts (most people make them in the winter months, the 2017 thread will probably open up soon). And make a note that there's an annual North Atlantic hurricane forecast contest also in the general forum here at Am-Wx. I organize that one as well, and usually run an announcement thread in May. 

Well, enjoy your winter and maybe we'll see some (more) of your sub-forum members taking part. 

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3 hours ago, dendrite said:

My god. 

Honestly the worst roads I've ever driven on this morning. My road and 93 were untreated and a skating rink. I lost control about 5x. I was doing 35mph on the highway...I don't even go that slow in 1"/hr. 

Road between town and the ski resort was closed for a while this morning which pretty much never happens.  I'm enjoying a day off so didn't have to go anywhere, ha.  But yeah temps hit 19F around midnight prior to clouds moving in... nice cold night prior to precip moving in at like 6am is a disaster waiting to happen.

"Public service announcement- Mountain Road closed from Harlow Hill. Wall to wall glare ice. Go back to bed Stowe friends."

Temps at 33F now but still ice on the pines and bushes outside.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

WMUR had a story about it. Looked nasty north of KCON. My guess is the rest area near exit 18 was the cutoff. Always is. :lol:  

It was glare ice all the way past 393. I was literally driving with fear because I was losing control with any excessive turn. I felt like I was in one of those southern icing events where stopped cars are sliding sideways off of roads into ditches.

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