Winter 2016-17 discussion

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Here's another perspective:

  That's a crazy strong gradient between Charlotte and Columbia. Don't tell me that stupid southeast ridge is going to screw the southeast.

Looks to me like he's using the I-85 line, one that Upstaters know all too well in the winter.

[FallsLake]

5 minutes ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Looks to me like he's using the I-85 line, one that Upstaters know all too well in the winter.

Kind of also looks like he's banking on CAD, from the look of the map.

[BlueRidgeFolklore]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Kind of also looks like he's banking on CAD, from the look of the map.

Yes it does, which is good for those in and along the escarpment.

[J.C.]

Any winter forecast that sinks the cold air south and isn't able to make it over the mountains is very believable to me.  The winter a few years ago was definitely the anomaly, we were one of like two regions in the entire northern hemisphere that had a below average winter.  We might see one like that once a decade.

[griteater]

Here's what I've got for a seasonal model update for September (click on table for a larger view)

[Cold Rain]

Nice table, Grit.  That's awesome!

[FallsLake]

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Here's what I've got for a seasonal model update for September (click on table for a larger view)

Of course the UKMet is the best model....right now.

[Met1985]

Nice table griteater! 

[mitchnick]

On 9/20/2016 at 8:10 PM, SimeonNC said:

It'll be interesting to see if the CFS and UKMet models begin a trend towards an average/slightly below average winter in terms of temperatures for other forecasting models or if they flip back to the above average consensus.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html

[packfan98]

10 hours ago, SimeonNC said:

Well according to the new CFS forecasts January/February should be good months.

And another warm December...

[Snowless in Carrollton]

According to TWC, most of the country will be above normal for temps this winter with the exception of New England. They also say this :

 "The reversal of tropical forcing suggests that the coldest weather in the eastern U.S, may occur earlier in the winter, with increasing chances for warmth during the late winter"

"Climate model forecasts for winter are unusually warm, likely reflecting the excess post-El-Nino global warmth, and another very warm winter is not out of the question due to this factor alone."

[griteater]

An image that would make Bob Chill proud.  Nina struggling at the moment...maybe the Euro is on to something

 

[tonysc]

On 9/20/2016 at 4:12 PM, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

Looks to me like he's using the I-85 line, one that Upstaters know all too well in the winter.

Sometimes I think Mother Nature agrees with them as well.

[packbacker]

2 hours ago, griteater said:

An image that would make Bob Chill proud.  Nina struggling at the moment...maybe the Euro is on to something

 

 

Past 30 day change is interesting too.  

[Cold Rain]

There aint no La Nina in that picture.  Look at that big super warm blob in the GOA.  Looks like it's cooled a little bit over the past month, though.

[GaStorm]

If anything we should be cheering for a weak El Nino at this point. 

[pcbjr]

I keep looking at the correlation between 'Canes that strike Fla and winter after each such event, and for the life of me, see nothing to hang a wish on. Just one factoid that may be meaningless, but ....

[Snowless in Carrollton]

25 minutes ago, SimeonNC said:

 

This image I found from http://weather.bloginky.com/2016/09/22/looking-way-down-the-weather-road/ looks intriguing.

It looks wayyyyy too good to be true.

[NWNC2015]

No talk on the IMB/weather channel outlook released yesterday? I think it is a great sound piece of work.

December is below normal temps for most of Florida and then on up to and past North Carolina but excluding the typical drought areas around Atlanta, GA. 

IBM - - They then go on to say no blocking and warmer January/rest of winter. A hangover of warmth is also cited from the record-trying El Nino. Below is the overall snapshot but you can visit their page for other graphics etc.

Me > > I think this could certainly bode well for AB snow for the interior Carolina's...an extra degree or two of heat for stronger southern sliders...and initial cold air could do it. Also, I believe when the Denver Metro area sees AB temps, NC is usually the opposite. I don't think we will roast all they way if they are all winter.

 

[Bob Chill]

On Friday, September 23, 2016 at 11:20 AM, griteater said:

An image that would make Bob Chill proud.  Nina struggling at the moment...maybe the Euro is on to something

 

Lol- I'm good with that map. 

 

We get duped a lot with seasonal models spitting out mod ninas and nino's. I remember chasing an incoming nino in the spring of 14-15. And another one in 11-12 IIRC. I didn't get sucked in this year. Models overshot nina strength every month. 

I would say that a neutral winter is in both our regions best interests. Ninas basically require blocking or the MA and SE ridge out on the means. I think this winter in particular will have a lot of seasonal forecast busts in general. 

 

The only thing I really care about is not having a raging PV and +AO in Dec. If December isn't hostile then we probably won't have a disaster. That's all I got. Lol

[griteater]

[griteater]

^ Dec-Feb is near avg in our forum, but below avg to the north and northwest

[griteater]

Here was their outlook from late Oct last year vs. actual

 

[packbacker]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

^ Dec-Feb is near avg in our forum, but below avg to the north and northwest

Would take that in a heartbeat.  Hard to imagine the MA/east being below normal for each month Nov-March though.  

[griteater]

A few random stats...

From data back to the late 1800's, Charlotte and Raleigh have both seen a total of 21 storms with 8+ inches of snow.

In Charlotte, only 1 of the 21 occurred during a La Nina (Jan 1965).  For Raleigh, 5 of the 21 have occurred during a La Nina.

Neither city has experienced 2 storms of 8+ inches in a single winter.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, packbacker said:

Would take that in a heartbeat.  Hard to imagine the MA/east being below normal for each month Nov-March though.  

Plus those maps would imply very cold air to the north. Even if we end up near normal as a whole for the winter, the cold air to the north would be great for potential CAD setups. 

So, I actually like that look over a Nino where the SE is "cold" and the northern tier is warm.  

[Snowless in Carrollton]

I love how it shows a cold November and cold March and close to average during the winter months. Just our luck ! Of course the areas that are typically cold to begin with have the biggest cold anomalies. Is there some reason why the cold is locked up north ? Surely it has to come south as some point right ?

[FallsLake]

18 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

I love how it shows a cold November and cold March and close to average during the winter months. Just our luck ! Of course the areas that are typically cold to begin with have the biggest cold anomalies. Is there some reason why the cold is locked up north ? Surely it has to come south as some point right ?

My thinking is that there will be more storms cutting up along or west of the mountains. I've seen many maps depicting dryer than normal conditions for the SE, but wetter than normal for the Ohio valley. So we may see many cases of cold, warm up , rain/showers (frontal passage) ,and cold again. But not all the time...    

[wx n of atl]

Quote

I love how it shows a cold November and cold March and close to average during the winter months. Just our luck ! Of course the areas that are typically cold to begin with have the biggest cold anomalies.

Just curious, would this be called a " Bookend winter"? I am recalling reading this term years ago on this board.  

[J.C.]

We would basically see the setup we have today a lot, cool air locked behind the mountains with warm and humid air on the lee side.  Its just where our climate is now.