Winter 2016-17 discussion

[jburns]

13 minutes ago, lookingnorth said:

WXRisk has posted their first speculation for the winter of 2016-17. Their opinion seems to be that the amount of cold and snow this winter is dependent on how strong of a la nina there will be. The stronger the nina, the warmer the winter (in general).

Their top analogs are (in chronological order, along with snow and temps for RDU)

1954-55: 16.8", 40.7

1964-65: 13.5", 42.2

1974-75: 0.6", 43.6

1995-96: 14.6", 40.0

2000-01: 2.6", 41.2

2011-12: 0.9", 47.0

Avg.: 8.2", 42.4

1950-2016 avg: 6.6", 42.0

So if WXRisk is using the right analogs, there is a decent chance it will be warmer and snowier than average. However, I will be in Oklahoma most of the winter, so if North Carolina gets an awesome winter and Oklahoma gets a terrible winter, I'll be mad at myself.

 

My money is on 1974-75 or 2111-12.

[jshetley]

1 hour ago, jburns said:

My money is on 1974-75 or 2111-12.

 Based on how this summer has went I'd say it could be 1995-96 or 2011-12. 2000-01 would be an option too and was not a good year for snow. NC folks would like 1995-96 of course, but that wasn't a good winter south of I-85 in SC.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, SimeonNC said:

About the latest JAMSTEC run, I don't buy it. I don't buy it for a single minute. This is not because I'm wishcasting for a cold winter for our region, it's because I just cannot believe how they can forecast nearly the entirety of North America torching while maintaining the neutral ENSO conditions and the positive PDO from the previous run. Unless there is something that I am missing, I'm going to write it off as the JAMSTEC being out to lunch.

It's always smart to be leery of long range models. Of course we all love them when they show cold; in which the JAMSTEC did last month.

[Cold Rain]

A good rule of thumb is that a seasonal model showing warmth is much more trustworthy than one showing cold.  If you remember that, you'll be on the right track with your expectations.

[Jon]

A good rule of thumb is that a seasonal model showing warmth is much more trustworthy than one showing cold.  If you remember that, you'll be on the right track with your expectations.

Agree. Seasonal models have an extremely low verification score so almost anything it spits out will not verify. You have to keep that in mind and not take the output verbatim. Especially with this far of a lead, wait until November and see what the Jamstec says for DJF.

[buckeyefan1]

40 days until Fall and 130 days before winter begins   until then.....the heat continues  

[pcbjr]

11 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

40 days until Fall and 130 days before winter begins   until then.....the heat continues  

To quote a famous philosopher, my drunken carpenter, "It is what it is". 

[BIG FROSTY]

Anybody know this Guy? And how good he did last year with his winter forecast? 

Region 10: Initially, it is very possible that southeast ridging will be present in this region; however, this ridge should begin to flatten out in January and February or possibly even be absent at that point. We saw this occur during the 2013-14 winter, which ultimately was a blockbuster winter in this zone with several winter storms impacting the area.

Most of the winter storm activity likely won’t occur until January and February with numerous winter storm chances emerging throughout that time period. Out of those several chances, two, maybe three of those, will materialize into something noteworthy. Those in the Appalachian Mountains could very well see higher snowfall probabilities, thanks to the addition of northwest flow setups.

Over the three-month period, temperatures should run average to slightly below average, but keep in mind that this will be due to a late start. So basically, temperatures could run above average in December but will probably go below average, or even well-below average at times, through January and February. Precipitation amounts should generally be above average across most of this region. Average to above average snowfall totals will be common with the exception being in southern parts of this region, where icing could be more of a concern (areas generally south of Atlanta/Birmingham, etc.). Icing is not guaranteed in extreme southern parts of this zone and for those closer to the Georgia and Carolina coasts, but the potential will still be there.

Just to reiterate, this will most likely shape up to be an active winter across this region with several potent Arctic intrusions dropping across the area later in the winter. Some may be tempted to believe that their neighbors to the west and north are getting the more active winter, but just hang in a few weeks if you’re looking to see some snow and ice.

[Jon]

Anybody know this Guy? And how good he did last year with his winter forecast? 

Region 10: Initially, it is very possible that southeast ridging will be present in this region; however, this ridge should begin to flatten out in January and February or possibly even be absent at that point. We saw this occur during the 2013-14 winter, which ultimately was a blockbuster winter in this zone with several winter storms impacting the area.

Most of the winter storm activity likely won’t occur until January and February with numerous winter storm chances emerging throughout that time period. Out of those several chances, two, maybe three of those, will materialize into something noteworthy. Those in the Appalachian Mountains could very well see higher snowfall probabilities, thanks to the addition of northwest flow setups.

Over the three-month period, temperatures should run average to slightly below average, but keep in mind that this will be due to a late start. So basically, temperatures could run above average in December but will probably go below average, or even well-below average at times, through January and February. Precipitation amounts should generally be above average across most of this region. Average to above average snowfall totals will be common with the exception being in southern parts of this region, where icing could be more of a concern (areas generally south of Atlanta/Birmingham, etc.). Icing is not guaranteed in extreme southern parts of this zone and for those closer to the Georgia and Carolina coasts, but the potential will still be there.

Just to reiterate, this will most likely shape up to be an active winter across this region with several potent Arctic intrusions dropping across the area later in the winter. Some may be tempted to believe that their neighbors to the west and north are getting the more active winter, but just hang in a few weeks if you’re looking to see some snow and ice.

Enough said I guess.

[BIG FROSTY]

3 minutes ago, Jon said:

Enough said I guess.

lol...... Yep!!

[griteater]

UKMet Seasonal for Nov-Jan

[Cold Rain]

^ That looks about right, Grit.

[griteater]

^ That looks about right, Grit.

-EPO & +NAO does look like a pretty good call right now given ENSO, QBO, & Solar

[Cold Rain]

7 hours ago, griteater said:

-EPO & +NAO does look like a pretty good call right now given ENSO, QBO, & Solar

The +NAO is pretty much always a good call.  The -EPO is more up in the air, but I like it being negative as well. But you really don't have to look at ENSO, QBO, solar, lunar, Martian, singularities, binary star clusters, asteroids, hemorrhoids, or anything else regarding the NAO, though.  Just pencil in the positive sign in front of it and walk away, and you'll be right 95% of the time.

[jshetley]

Those maps remind me of 2001-02. If we get a repeat of that, it'll be warm and dry most of this winter after a very dry fall. Hopefully the next 3 months are not as dry as that fall was. As for winter, 1 event saved most of us from having a winter without any winter precip.

[pcbjr]

2 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

The +NAO is pretty much always a good call.  The -EPO is more up in the air, but I like it being negative as well. But you really don't have to look at ENSO, QBO, solar, lunar, Martian, singularities, binary star clusters, asteroids, hemorrhoids, or anything else regarding the NAO, though.  Just pencil in the positive sign in front of it and walk away, and you'll be right 95% of the time.

+NAO

Nawwww..... Couldn't be

[snowman19]

On August 13, 2016 at 11:35 AM, griteater said:

-EPO & +NAO does look like a pretty good call right now given ENSO, QBO, & Solar

While I can see a -EPO and -WPO circulation, the thing I don't see at all, which some are calling for is a +PNA winter. A +PNA circulation this winter would be shocking. I think the PDO is negative this winter to be honest, which may act to limit the amount of -EPO, -WPO we've been accustomed to. I do agree though that we see mostly a +AO and +NAO given the central based orientation of the La Niña and the tendency for -AMO

[nchighcountrywx]

Well the Farmer's Almanacs are in and they are looking GREAT !

Farmers' Almanac predicts a teeth shattering 'ice cold' winter as it celebrates 200th anniversary

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3740126/Test-time-2-almanacs-celebrate-milestone-anniversaries.html

Original Old Farmers Almanac:

The long-term weather forecast calls for a teeth-chattering winter for the eastern two-thirds of the nation. 'We're calling it the return of the old-fashioned winter. The ice cold winter is back,' said Sandi Duncan, managing editor.

New Hampshire Farmers Almanac:

Janice Stillman, editor of the New Hampshire publication, said the coldest, snowiest conditions will be along the Canadian border, down through southern New England and the Appalachians.

 

[packbacker]

-EPO & +NAO does look like a pretty good call right now given ENSO, QBO, & Solar

And we thought last winter was AN. SER rocks.

[FallsLake]

I personally love all the warm winter forecast. It seems that the skills are still so low for forecasting long term patterns that the opposite outcomes tends to happen more times than not. There's always some factor that throws a wrench(good or bad) into what should be a favored overall pattern.

**if there's one thing I think is crucial in any setup is a +PNA. Give us that with a throw of the dice and we can score a winter storm...    

[BIG FROSTY]

If we were to judge based on a weak-based La Nina, +PDO, -NAO, and +AO, this is the expected winter 16-17 outcome.

 

 

[Suncat]

Based on historic track record, which almanac has the most reliable winter forecast?  BTW, leaves are falling off the trees in the Central Piedmont of NC.

[FallsLake]

24 minutes ago, Suncat said:

Based on historic track record, which almanac has the most reliable winter forecast?  BTW, leaves are falling off the trees in the Central Piedmont of NC.

It's been dry recently, but I've always noticed that there are some trees that do start early; like the Popular.

[Jon]

Based on historic track record, which almanac has the most reliable winter forecast?  BTW, leaves are falling off the trees in the Central Piedmont of NC.

Neither.

[griteater]

15 hours ago, BIG FROSTY said:

If we were to judge based on a weak-based La Nina, +PDO, -NAO, and +AO, this is the expected winter 16-17 outcome.

Frosty - where did this image come from?

[griteater]

50 minutes ago, Suncat said:

Based on historic track record, which almanac has the most reliable winter forecast?  BTW, leaves are falling off the trees in the Central Piedmont of NC.

Jan Null has a review of some past winter outlooks from CPC and the Old Farmer's Almanac here - http://ggweather.com/links.html

[BIG FROSTY]

8 hours ago, griteater said:

Frosty - where did this image come from?

 Follow

US Snow Report‏@USsnowreport

Found it on Twitter, have no Idea who it is................. I think it's just somebody posting winter outlooks from different scenarios. lol Wouldn't put much stock in it.. Of course anyone that shows above snow here, probably best not to put any stock in it.. lol

[griteater]

The Nina peak has weakened slightly over the last few months on the IRI model composite...showing a very weak Nina at the moment.

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

The Nina peak has weakened slightly over the last few months on the IRI model composite...showing a very weak Nina at the moment.

That's about as good of news as we can get at this point. Weaker the nina the better odds of cooler temps...

[Jon]

Latest IRI temps for DJF, same website from the ENSO picture above. This is actually good for this large of a lead time.