Winter 2016-17 discussion

[FallsLake]

So what does the NAO do this winter:

 

[rosie]

Have seen two woolly worms, no black at all.

 

[griteater]

So who / which seasonal model had a good performance last winter?

 

Here are the Dec-Feb actuals for 2015-2016:

 

The CFS had one of the best performances among the seasonal models (note: as we know, the CFS produces a lot of forecasts - I selected this image from the single monthly archived seasonal forecast page for Oct - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2_fcst_history/)

 

In terms of vendors, RiskPulse had a good outlook performance (https://riskpulse.com/blog/2015-2016-winter-weather-outlook/).  It looks like their outlook was written in mid-Nov and released to the public on Dec 1...so, it was a little on the late side which is a bit of an advantage, but not a huge advantage.

 

Roger Smith AmericanWx had some good forecast ideas, stating, "My outlook calls for exceptional warmth in many parts of central and eastern North America for the first half of the winter"....."During spells of exceptional warmth, record high temperatures may occur and these may even threaten monthly records, not just daily records"...."I believe the main story of the winter will be the exceptional warmth."  

There were other posters in our subforum (and others) that also correctly identified a concern for warm to very warm temperatures based on the Super Nino.

[griteater]

34 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

So what does the NAO do this winter:

That's an ugly chart overall since 1972.  I think a -NAO is going to be a struggle based on:

Recent year stratosphere / NAO tendencies

Declining solar cycle (not yet at minimum portion of the cycle)

Central pacific weak nina (which is what I think we will get)

QBO/Solar/Nina combo

In addition, with La Ninas, the -NAO tends to be more east based vs. a more west based tendency with El Ninos

Of course, this all means we will get a raging negative, west based NAO  

[FallsLake]

Grit, it does look like the CFS did well. The current output looks better for this winter but still nothing to get excited about:

 

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, griteater said:

That's an ugly chart overall since 1972.  I think a -NAO is going to be a struggle based on:

Recent year stratosphere / NAO tendencies

Declining solar cycle (not yet at minimum portion of the cycle)

Central pacific weak nina (which is what I think we will get)

QBO/Solar/Nina combo

In addition, with La Ninas, the -NAO tends to be more east based vs. a more west based tendency with El Ninos

Of course, this all means we will get a raging negative, west based NAO  

Good disco! Based on what you discussed (modoki La Niña, +QBO, low solar) and very likely the AMO flipping negative again, very good chance the AO is positive this upcoming winter as well, they usually like to go positive together or negative together anyway

[packbacker]

No secret that, alteast for RDU, the NAO is the big driver of our consistent winter/snow events.  Also, no secret when looking at the chart below why the late 50's-60's were so great and why since 1990 we have sucked so bad.  It's isn't the PNA/EPO that drives our winters, although it does help and can deliver events as 2014 showed.  Even last January's sleet fest had a big NAO.  I think it's been like 20 out of the past 22 +NAO winter months.

Edit:  Agree with Grit...bleak outlook for -NAO this winter.

[Brick Tamland]

8 hours ago, FallsLake said:

We talked about this before, but the way I see it is winter forecast are as reliable as the 16 day GFS. I enjoy reading them and try not to disrespect a persons views, but our knowledge and technology are just not good enough at this point.

It wouldn't surprise me if we get two big winter storms in December and then nothing afterwards. With weather, and particularly the SE, it really comes down to us getting lucky and having things line up perfectly.   

Winter gonna do what it's gonna do here.

[lookingnorth]

18 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Zero correlation means a coin flip.  So, negative means that the NCEP skill at Day 15 is actually worse than flipping a coin - in other words, very bad.

So it's better to go with the climatological average that far out?

[pcbjr]

Just tossing this into the mix:

Fla panhandle storms (Agnes 1972, Alberto 1994, Kate 1985, Opal 1995, Frances 2004 (sort of)) and composite winters:

[Cold Rain]

After poring over maps, models, analogues, and other various data over the last several weeks, I believe I have finally discovered our primary pattern for the upcoming winter season.  The 288hr 6Z GFS chart illustrates this quite nicely.

In the upper right panel, notice the Pacific Jet rolling into the Pac NW, providing plenty of fast-moving energy and mild Pacific air.  Also, notice how the PV has set up shop in eastern Canada, only slowly moving NE, creating the traditional wintertime +NAO signature.

Now, at the surface, over to the upper left, you can clearly see the seasonal Great Lakes low moving nicely into position, while weakening high pressure follows the typical trajectory out into the Atlantic, creating a nice pressure ridge north to south between the east coast and Bermuda.  This helps to set up a favorable channel just west of the Apps through which our low pressure can travel, bringing a quick burst of shower activity, followed by a wind shift and trailing cold front.  A few more showers will get rung out just ahead of any cold air, which should get sufficiently trapped west of the Apps until all of the moisture has moved off to the northeast.

Finally, in the lower right, you'll notice the semi-permanent placement of the 0C 850 line, roughly in standard position just north of the US/Canadian border.

All in all, a winter filled with cold to mild rain events should be anticipated, interspersed with dry, mild periods.  Most of the SE should expect to conclude winter having experienced normal to slightly above normal precipitation and slightly above to moderately above normal temperatures, given the primary pattern discussed above.

[GaStorm]

If winter is really like that there won't be many people posting on here that's for sure. I have to think there will be a break in the crappy pattern at some point and possibly a decent shot at a storm when that happens. We don't have to have a -NAO for winter weather but it will not be easy without one.

[beavis1729]

On September 14, 2016 at 2:13 PM, lookingnorth said:

So it's better to go with the climatological average that far out?

Yes - at least according to the NCEP correlation numbers that you provided. 

[FallsLake]

5 hours ago, Cold Rain said:

After poring over maps, models, analogues, and other various data over the last several weeks, I believe I have finally discovered our primary pattern for the upcoming winter season.  The 288hr 6Z GFS chart illustrates this quite nicely.

In the upper right panel, notice the Pacific Jet rolling into the Pac NW, providing plenty of fast-moving energy and mild Pacific air.  Also, notice how the PV has set up shop in eastern Canada, only slowly moving NE, creating the traditional wintertime +NAO signature.

Now, at the surface, over to the upper left, you can clearly see the seasonal Great Lakes low moving nicely into position, while weakening high pressure follows the typical trajectory out into the Atlantic, creating a nice pressure ridge north to south between the east coast and Bermuda.  This helps to set up a favorable channel just west of the Apps through which our low pressure can travel, bringing a quick burst of shower activity, followed by a wind shift and trailing cold front.  A few more showers will get rung out just ahead of any cold air, which should get sufficiently trapped west of the Apps until all of the moisture has moved off to the northeast.

Finally, in the lower right, you'll notice the semi-permanent placement of the 0C 850 line, roughly in standard position just north of the US/Canadian border.

All in all, a winter filled with cold to mild rain events should be anticipated, interspersed with dry, mild periods.  Most of the SE should expect to conclude winter having experienced normal to slightly above normal precipitation and slightly above to moderately above normal temperatures, given the primary pattern discussed above.

LOL...you forgot the Bermuda high that's going to be record strong throughout the winter. Another Christmas with AC folks..

[jshetley]

23 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

LOL...you forgot the Bermuda high that's going to be record strong throughout the winter. Another Christmas with AC folks..

That's very possible and it might last right through the winter too with a few small cool snaps, but mostly highs in the 65-82 degree range and not much precip. I'm still looking for our worst summer in a LONG TIME next year. Basically a warmer and drier version of the winter of 2011-2012 and a summer hotter and drier than 2007.

[Cold Rain]

2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

LOL...you forgot the Bermuda high that's going to be record strong throughout the winter. Another Christmas with AC folks..

SE ridge!  Man I forgot all about that one.  Good call!

[pcbjr]

Sheet.

 

No blankets,

 

Just sheets ....

[J.C.]

3 hours ago, jshetley said:

That's very possible and it might last right through the winter too with a few small cool snaps, but mostly highs in the 65-82 degree range and not much precip. I'm still looking for our worst summer in a LONG TIME next year. Basically a warmer and drier version of the winter of 2011-2012 and a summer hotter and drier than 2007.

I hate to break it to you but many areas surrounding you had their hottest Summer's on record, so there is no "worst summer in a long time" because this summer was the "worst of all time."

[Snowless in Carrollton]

On 9/13/2016 at 8:47 PM, FallsLake said:

Thanks for posting this mitch. If February ends up being the big winter month that will make three years in a row for us.   

 

I was about to say.... How in the world will next summer top this summer ? 

[jshetley]

3 hours ago, J.C. said:

I hate to break it to you but many areas surrounding you had their hottest Summer's on record, so there is no "worst summer in a long time" because this summer was the "worst of all time."

This summer may be the hottest going by averages since we had 93-100 degree weather from early June through the end of August, but we did not have any stretch of 102-105+ over a large area like we did in 2007. I see us having 5-7 weeks of widespread 105-110 temps next summer from southern VA to AL and GA. These states could break their all-time records next summer and maybe by a big margin if next summer is as dry as it could be. Someone could hit 115+. This entire winter will be like the last 10 days of last Dec, minus the rain. 

[BullCityWx]

1 hour ago, jshetley said:

 This entire winter will be like the last 10 days of last Dec, minus the rain. 

You've said a lot of crazy/stupid things but this probably takes the cake.

[NWNC2015]

You can still have a deplorable Christmas with well above normal temps for the entire basket of winter and still manage 1 huge winter storm when a "severe balancing out storm occurs" and end with above normal snowfall. Most will still call that a disgusting winter . The northern foothills have not been "skunked out" of winter in years...we are on a roll even in the pattern Cold Rain showed.

 

I think we spend too much time in trying to figure out the whole pattern...but then we complain when its cold and dry for so long. Or when it warms up and rains for 1 day in several weeks of a snowy tree crashing pattern. We live in the S/E....one should not seek a pattern producing winter every year. 

[Brick Tamland]

On 9/16/2016 at 10:37 PM, jshetley said:

This summer may be the hottest going by averages since we had 93-100 degree weather from early June through the end of August, but we did not have any stretch of 102-105+ over a large area like we did in 2007. I see us having 5-7 weeks of widespread 105-110 temps next summer from southern VA to AL and GA. These states could break their all-time records next summer and maybe by a big margin if next summer is as dry as it could be. Someone could hit 115+. This entire winter will be like the last 10 days of last Dec, minus the rain. 

Yes, this summer was consistently hot, and not one of extremes. It would be nice if winter was the same way with the cold and snow chances.

[No snow for you]

Here is my official outlook for 2016-17 winter season in 1 gif

 

[Cold Rain]

Welp, I sprung for the Model Center Winter package today.  This will allow me to more closely track all of our cold rain events and more accurately monitor any impending mild air outbreaks this winter!

[No snow for you]

1 hour ago, Cold Rain said:

Welp, I sprung for the Model Center Winter package today.  This will allow me to more closely track all of our mild rain events and more accurately monitor any impending hot air outbreaks this winter!

FIFY

[Cold Rain]

5 hours ago, No snow for you said:

FIFY

Lol sounds about right.

[FallsLake]

Here's another perspective:

 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Here's another perspective:

  That's a crazy strong gradient between Charlotte and Columbia. Don't tell me that stupid southeast ridge is going to screw the southeast.

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

1 hour ago, FallsLake said:

Here's another perspective:

  That's a crazy strong gradient between Charlotte and Columbia. Don't tell me that stupid southeast ridge is going to screw the southeast.

As I said before, I enjoy reading winter forecast but I take them all with a grain of salt.