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Winter 2016-17 discussion

lookingnorth

By lookingnorth,
in Southeastern States

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Larry Cosgrove's winter forecast is out.  Basically, he has Dec and Jan above normal temps and below normal precip for most of the SE.  Feb turns colder and wetter, especially the latter half of the month, as well as March, due to strong blocking.  Has most of us basically at normal or slightly than normal snowfall.  In the "what could go wrong" category, the injection of a tropical cyclone into the pattern could influence blocking and get it going earlier than he's forecasting.  That would be beneficial to us.  Other than that, it looks pretty ho hum, with another late start to winter being forecast.

This sounds a LOT like how the winter of 1988-89 went. If we got a repeat of that, Feb would be fairly nice in NC and upstate SC for winter weather. The drought would get much worse until Feb, but if the spring of next year was like 1989 the drought would be gone by May 1. 

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jshetley

jshetley

Posted
Posted
24 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

That's if you believe his forecast. He is opposite to many others by forecasting a backend winter. The only nod I can give is we've been seeing backend winters for the past few years. So as others have said, it's wise to go with persistence until you see a change.   

I think he may be right though, because I'm starting to think we may get a winter like 1988-89. That was a Feb and March winter around here and folks from Greenville NC northeast towards Norfolk VA would love it. The GA folks and most of SC would not like it though.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted
On 10/28/2016 at 1:02 PM, pcbjr said:

Allan has a well considered write-up/forecast:

 

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/research/Winter2016-17Forecast.pdf

Not sure I have ever seen one of his winter forecasts use the words "difficult to forecast," "uncertainty," and "low confidence" as much as this one. Sounds like this winter is a toss-up. Of course, last winter he predicted 100 to 150% of normal snowfall here, and sounded much more confident, but that didn't work out at all. 

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

I like the RaleighWx write up a lot. Background analysis is solid. Forecast conclusion is pretty close to mine. I am a little warmer overall South US. The month by month looks good also with a somewhat front loaded Dec-Feb period.

Again I advise caution on the Siberian snow alone. Recent trends have a lot of high pressure, which improves the snow correlation. Low press is noted far eastern Siberia, but that would line up with Aleutian vs GOA. All that, I'm still not sold on North America early. First Siberian high dump is China this week. Sometimes they lead US weather. Other times they strand more weather patterns than the Cubs do base runners, lol.

At any rate RaeighWx delivers a solid discussion and forecast IMHO.

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GaStorm

GaStorm

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

I like the RaleighWx write up a lot. Background analysis is solid. Forecast conclusion is pretty close to mine. I am a little warmer overall South US. The month by month looks good also with a somewhat front loaded Dec-Feb period.

Again I advise caution on the Siberian snow alone. Recent trends have a lot of high pressure, which improves the snow correlation. Low press is noted far eastern Siberia, but that would line up with Aleutian vs GOA. All that, I'm still not sold on North America early. First Siberian high dump is China this week. Sometimes they lead US weather. Other times they strand more weather patterns than the Cubs do base runners, lol.

At any rate RaeighWx delivers a solid discussion and forecast IMHO.

Do you think we can turn around the pattern quicker if we get a weak Nina vs a neutral negative setup? Didn't know if that would stop the Nino hangover we are in now?

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

In the climate forum they're talking about the slow increase of arctic sea ice in October. But in total contrast, the northern hemisphere snow coverage is way above normal. I've read that low sea ice extent can increase the possibilities of -AO and we've heard about the studies of October snow cover increase in Siberia (..good things for our side of the hemisphere).

End of October snow coverage:   

 

11-1-2016 6-39-28 AM.jpg

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

Yes there is some correlation with low sea ice and blocking. Also it is not strange to have low ice and high snow, since the low ice allows more evaporation. If higher than normal pressure can sustain over Siberia with that snow, the SAI may have a better chance.

Regarding timing, I figure shorter term drivers like the AO will have more influence than weak Nina vs Nada. Finally the Euro weeklies and CFS disagree on quick cold front or longer cool spell, likely due to MJO forecast differences.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Here's an article where Cohen talks about the Siberian snow in October and how it could affect us. He is going against the NOAA forecast for a warm and dry winter. I thought folks here were not really high on Cohen, though, and thought he was pretty off before with the winter forecasts here.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chill-siberia-bad-sign-us-winter-ahead-1589190?utm_content=bufferbd833&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
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23 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Here's an article where Cohen talks about the Siberian snow in October and how it could affect us. He is going against the NOAA forecast for a warm and dry winter. I thought folks here were not really high on Cohen, though, and thought he was pretty off before with the winter forecasts here.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chill-siberia-bad-sign-us-winter-ahead-1589190?utm_content=bufferbd833&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

I think most of us are just leery of it just as we're leery of every other type of forecast indicator. But any indicator pointing towards a cold eastern US is still welcome.  

Dealing with how this winter will start, it wont be long now until we know if December will be starting off cold or warm. JB is currently hyping late Nov and early Dec as being cold.

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Avdave

Avdave

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Wonder what JB's forecast is?  Cohen has pretty much lost credibility with me.  If the SAI doesn't pan out this year, I hope I don't have to see his name next year.  On the other hand, I hope the SAI does pan out and that he turns out to be correct.

I wouldnt trust JB anymore than Cohen at this point. He is awful

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JoMo

JoMo

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Wonder what JB's forecast is?  Cohen has pretty much lost credibility with me.  If the SAI doesn't pan out this year, I hope I don't have to see his name next year.  On the other hand, I hope the SAI does pan out and that he turns out to be correct.

Joe Bastardi? Just updated his forecast Oct 26th. Near normal temps for the SE. Around normal to slightly above normal snow across far N SC, much of NC except the SE 1/4 or so. Below normal elsewhere. 

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Snowless in Carrollton

Snowless in Carrollton

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, JoMo said:

Joe Bastardi? Just updated his forecast Oct 26th. Near normal temps for the SE. Around normal to slightly above normal snow across far N SC, much of NC except the SE 1/4 or so. Below normal elsewhere. 

I always laugh when anyone predicts below normal snowfall for Georgia. That pretty much means we won't be getting any snow at all. Honestly I don't see the point in predicting snow fall in an area that averages maybe 2".

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Not bad, Pack.  Any idea how the SAI turned turned out this year?  I tried going to aer.com this morning, but the site is offline.

I don't know if Cohen has shared that yet, he mentioned in his blog he would soon.  He stated in his blog the SAI was "more impressive" then the SCE so it must be really good.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

I think the best thing to take from the pattern and indicies are they might show you have a better than normal chance of getting a winter storm, but still doesn't mean it's going to happen. Kind of like Michael Jordan has a better chance of hitting a half court shot than I do, but it doesn't mean he's going to make it. 

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

I don't know if Cohen has shared that yet, he mentioned in his blog he would soon.  He stated in his blog the SAI was "more impressive" then the SCE so it must be really good.

Finally got the site to come up and read some of it.  Here's a paragraph that provides a decent overview:

In my mind what is not uncertain are the bullish signals for a cold winter from the three main winter weather predictors that I follow closely in October.  First the predictor that I have researched the longest and most thoroughly - Eurasian snow cover had a truly impressive advance this past October.  I project that the mean snow cover extent will be the fourth highest observed since 1972 (final value will probably be posted in the next few days  at climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover).  I have developed a new snow advance index (SAI with former colleague Justin Jones) that measures the advance of snow cover south of 60°N.  The SAI I feel was even more impressive and I hope to share some of the statistics shortly.  The second predictor that I like to follow is Arctic sea ice, especially in the Barents-Kara seas.  Despite a quick rebound off the minimum, sea ice growth has been truly anemic and large areas in the Barents-Kara on the North Atlantic side and in the East Siberian, Chukchi and Beaufort seas on the North Pacific side remain ice free.  Finally the third predictor that I follow is the development of the Siberian high.  The Siberian high expanded strongly to the north and west during October.  This is favorable to poleward heat flux or vertical Wave Activity Flux (WAFz) and the pattern was so conducive to WAFz it resulted (in my opinion) in a record strong WAFz to end the month and the current unprecedented PV split.   Based on my experience all three, the extensive Eurasian snow cover, the low Arctic sea ice and strengthened Siberian high all favor a significant weakening of the PV in mid-winter followed by increased high latitude blocking and colder temperatures for Northern Eurasia including Europe and East Asia and the Eastern US.

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, packbacker said:

Per Rutgers climate site...Oct 2016 finished 3rd overall in snow cover extent   The top 5 SCE years with temps for those winters.  Note, last Oct was 6th and was warmest winter I can recall.

 

IMG_3033.PNG

IMG_3034.PNG

Hell froze over...Packbacker is posting cold analogs ;)

Kidding. Good stuff. Cohen said he'd publish the SAI if he reached 3,000 followers on twitter...haha. I think he'll end up posting it anyway.

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