packbacker Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 We are sneakily BN the past week and if you believe the GEFS you could argue we could be, on average, BN the next week or two. Maybe parts of the E/SE does have a chance at BN for Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: We are sneakily BN the past week and if you believe the GEFS you could argue we could be, on average, BN the next week or two. Maybe parts of the E/SE does have a chance at BN for Nov. Most of the SE has been above normal though. Not sure why the Carolinas and East GA have been cooler than everywhere else. Maybe because those areas have had more rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Most of the SE has been above normal though. Not sure why the Carolinas and East GA have been cooler than everywhere else. Probably the abundant soil moisture from Matthew, that helps keep the temperatures cooler, with the Suns energy going to evaporation, something we don't have in Ga and Western Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 Actually its the extremely dry air allowing our low temperatures to drop well into the 30s, which is counteracting the slightly above average high temperatures. Low temps at CAE the past 6 days: 36, 38, 36, 47, 37, 35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 22 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Probably the abundant soil moisture from Matthew, that helps keep the temperatures cooler, with the Suns energy going to evaporation, something we don't have in Ga and Western Carolinas We haven't had any rain in over 30 days, it is definitely not that. Its the opposite with the dry air and and the low temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 3 hours ago, packbacker said: We are sneakily BN the past week and if you believe the GEFS you could argue we could be, on average, BN the next week or two. Maybe parts of the E/SE does have a chance at BN for Nov. Yeah iv been noticing that in relationship to the rest of the country we are not doing bad with temps. If the Gfs plays out the way it looks then we could been sitting solidly below normal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, J.C. said: Actually its the extremely dry air allowing our low temperatures to drop well into the 30s, which is counteracting the slightly above average high temperatures. Low temps at CAE the past 6 days: 36, 38, 36, 47, 37, 35 Bingo. Desert like conditions are the cause: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 1 hour ago, J.C. said: Actually its the extremely dry air allowing our low temperatures to drop well into the 30s, which is counteracting the slightly above average high temperatures. Low temps at CAE the past 6 days: 36, 38, 36, 47, 37, 35 This right here. Same here in WNC. Our highs have been running just slightly above normal but our lows are a good 5 to 10 degrees below normal . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Bingo. Desert like conditions are the cause: Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 4 hours ago, J.C. said: Actually its the extremely dry air allowing our low temperatures to drop well into the 30s, which is counteracting the slightly above average high temperatures. Low temps at CAE the past 6 days: 36, 38, 36, 47, 37, 35 So why are the areas that have been wettest getting the driest air ? Atlanta has been at or above normal every single day this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 2 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yes sir. The mornings have been amazing. Very cool mornings around here. Hitting the upper 30s at night then bouncing up to like 70+ in the day. the temp also drops off like a rock at sunset. Most of the cooling takes place before 10-11 it seems. Just has a desert feel to the weather. today has been cooler and tomorrow even more so. I could see November temps being around normal here give or take a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: The mornings have been amazing. Very cool mornings around here. Hitting the upper 30s at night then bouncing up to like 70+ in the day. the temp also drops off like a rock at sunset. Most of the cooling takes place before 10-11 it seems. Just had a desert feel to the weather. today has been cooler and tomorrow even more so. I could see November temps being around normal here give or take a little. You do realize Atlanta is running 7 degrees above normal for the month so far. The second half of November better be way below normal for things to even out for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: You do realize Atlanta is running 7 degrees above normal for the month so far. The second half of November better be way below normal for things to even out for the month. That's skewed by the first few days of the month which were carry over from the October torch. The pattern has changed temp wise. Also tomorrow will be a big - departure day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 35 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: That's skewed by the first few days of the month which were carry over from the October torch. The pattern has changed temp wise. Also tomorrow will be a big - departure day. Afternoon highs will once again be near 10 degrees above normal mid to late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 19 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: Afternoon highs will once again be near 10 degrees above normal mid to late next week. Based on what I see mid week looks like some short lived above normal sandwiched between normal to below normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2016 Share Posted November 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Based on what I see mid week looks like some short lived above normal sandwiched between normal to below normal temps. Yep big time. It will be short lived next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 2 hours ago, LithiaWx said: That's skewed by the first few days of the month which were carry over from the October torch. The pattern has changed temp wise. Also tomorrow will be a big - departure day. That's why I think it is important to look at the number of days that have been below, above, and at normal. a couple of extreme days either way can really skew the average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, SimeonNC said: Looks like the predicted pattern change seems to be happening but not in the way that we all thought. I think the pattern is gonna sort itself out by the first week of Dec. I agree. We have time. We were so far on one side of an extreme it's going to take some stepping down to get where we want to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: I agree. We have time. We were so far on one side of an extreme it's going to take some stepping down to get where we want to be. Yeah, not like it's mid- January and we are searching for a pattern change, like the last 2 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, not like it's mid- January and we are searching for a pattern change, like the last 2 years! I have a feeling we really need the first half of winter to perform. No fab February this year; in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, not like it's mid- January and we are searching for a pattern change, like the last 2 years! I'm an optimist for winter this year until something tells me different. My only big concern is this drought but that can change quickly and I sure hope it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: I have a feeling we really need the first half of winter to perform. No fab February this year; in my opinion. Down here we need to hit the target square on to score. I need a jammin January for best chances this far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Just now, LithiaWx said: Down here we need to hit the target square on to score. I need a jammin January for best chances this far south. First half of January is still the first half winter. Maybe we can get you guys something then. **Heck while we're wishing lets hope for a Christmas miracle for a large swath of the SE. Just need some of that Asian cold to cross the pole at the right time and direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 Seems more and more our weather is one of extremes. So, I think either we just hold on to the above normal temps all winter, or we go the other way and have lots of cold and snow. It doesn't seem to be anything in between or normal anymore. I would say one thing on our side here in central and eastern NC is how much precip we have had, but ever since Matthew it has been pretty dry here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 It's been nearly 3 years since I've seen snow of any significance. This is one of the worst snow droughts in my lifetime, probably worse than the period from 2003-2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: First half of January is still the first half winter. Maybe we can get you guys something then. **Heck while we're wishing lets hope for a Christmas miracle for a large swath of the SE. Just need some of that Asian cold to cross the pole at the right time and direction. It's super-cold on the other side of the world, no question! I mean I think there is a 1065 MB high over Siberia now!? Our worst nightmare , would be for it to get to our side of the world and dump into the west coast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 13, 2016 Share Posted November 13, 2016 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: First half of January is still the first half winter. Maybe we can get you guys something then. **Heck while we're wishing lets hope for a Christmas miracle for a large swath of the SE. Just need some of that Asian cold to cross the pole at the right time and direction. Agreed sir. Antecdotely early to mid Jan has been the sweet spot for my part of the southeast. I really hope you're right and I certainly see how it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Per the GEFS...all but one member showing a reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Lot of tweets/posts about how the pac has changed the past month or so. Strong cold anomalies from Japan to GOA with a warm ribbon surrounding. Most have seen that as bearish but when plotting some cold v/s warm analogs it says otherwise. Who knows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 14, 2016 Share Posted November 14, 2016 Also, with the latest UK seasonal just released it makes it unanimous...every seasonal is calling for a nice and toasty winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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