Jon Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Here's the Monthly 18z run from yesterday that I posted above Also the CFSv2 evolution that most are used to seeing. As I expected, with the amount of cold that was displayed the previous run its overwhelming the positive anomalies on the east. We've all seen this song and dance before though with the CFSv2. Let's just hope it doesn't back off, the last frame of the month (last run) of the CFSv2 has verified for Dec in the past. Not sure how it's doing now someone will have to fact check how it handled oct and nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Good stuff Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Good stuff Jon! Yep, agree, thanks Jon! GEFS says majority of conus BN once into Dec. Obviously we like the greenland block we are going to have the SER run it for us but with that block it could be interesting later in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 One thing the GEFS/EPS are starting to agree on is elongating the trop PV and dropping a piece into Greenland/HB in the day 10+. Beats a consolidated one over Siberia. Wish I could see the strat plots for the EPS day 10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Pack good info also bro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 One thing the GEFS/EPS are starting to agree on is elongating the trop PV and dropping a piece into Greenland/HB in the day 10+. Beats a consolidated one over Siberia. Wish I could see the strat plots for the EPS day 10+.Looks better Pack, now we need to squeeze it with Davis Strait and Yukon ridging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 44 minutes ago, griteater said: Looks better Pack, now we need to squeeze it with Davis Strait and Yukon ridging I can't unsee the 12z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Can't recall seeing that much HP in NW NA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 27 minutes ago, packbacker said: Can't recall seeing that much HP in NW NA. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 Good stuff! Hopefully this general idea comes to fruition. Mid December is a great time for cold, with low sun angle and short days. Does anyone have a snow cover map of Canada? Even with a good H5 setup, we need good Canadian snow cover to refrigerate the airmass even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted November 24, 2016 Share Posted November 24, 2016 On 11/19/2016 at 10:14 AM, Met1985 said: 32 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Good stuff! Hopefully this general idea comes to fruition. Mid December is a great time for cold, with low sun angle and short days. Does anyone have a snow cover map of Canada? Even with a good H5 setup, we need good Canadian snow cover to refrigerate the airmass even more. It looks like the negative NAO will be short lived. The ao is a toss up. It could go either way really, back to positive or staying negative. I mean, it still hasn't went negative yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted November 25, 2016 Share Posted November 25, 2016 06z gfs is how we could screw up December. the Ridge NW of Alaska is way too far West Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Top 5 analog winters off today's super ensemble avg 15" for RDU. Only down hill from here I would guess, unless Jan 2k shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 17 minutes ago, packbacker said: Only down hill from here I would guess Pack - That phrase can be read 2 ways - hope you are suggesting the positive version? Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Just now, pcbjr said: Pack - That phrase can be read 2 ways - hope you are suggesting the positive version? Phil Hah...just meant it's hard to get the top 5 analogs with that high an average. Hopefully its a good sign though. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Hah...just meant it's hard to get the top 5 analogs with that high an average. Hopefully its a good sign though. :-) Gotcha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 No factual science behind what I'm going to say and it's not trolling just what I have seen but in my lifetime it seems that winters following hurricanes/tropical storms that impacted our area we receive above average snowfall. Any correlation to that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1 hour ago, rjtysinger said: No factual science behind what I'm going to say and it's not trolling just what I have seen but in my lifetime it seems that winters following hurricanes/tropical storms that impacted our area we receive above average snowfall. Any correlation to that? What were the years you had in mind with the tropical storm hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 1996-1997 Fran 1999-2000 Dennis 2011-2012 forget the name of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 15 minutes ago, rjtysinger said: 1996-1997 Fran 1999-2000 Dennis 2011-2012 forget the name of the storm. Will give you 1999-2000, but 96-97 wasn't snowy was it?...and 11-12 was one of the worst winters of all time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjtysinger Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 We had a decent snow the winter following Fran and two decent events early 2012 No monster accumulation events but decent. Just my memories of winters proceeding tropical impacts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 11 hours ago, griteater said: Will give you 1999-2000, but 96-97 wasn't snowy was it?...and 11-12 was one of the worst winters of all time Hurricane Hazel...Oct 1954. Weak nina, following a 2 year nino. 16.8" for RDU that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Just taking the two storms ('Canes) that really impacted the SE this year and comparing them to a couple very similar storms in the past ( Cleo 1964 - Matthew this year; Kate 1985 - Hermine this year) one could come up with this (though I do not suggest this is a certainty, it is at least interesting): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 Models agree on the trop PV setting up shop right over the pole.....hopefully a piece heads towards SE Canada/Lakes day 10+ while holding onto the -EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 7 minutes ago, packbacker said: Models agree on the trop PV setting up shop right over the pole.....hopefully a piece heads towards SE Canada/Lakes day 10+ while holding onto the -EPO. This actually has a better look than with a negative AO but the PV on the other side of the world in Siberia. Hopefully this is like a reload and then when it goes negative again it will dive down into Canada instead of the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2016 Share Posted November 27, 2016 15 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This actually has a better look than with a negative AO but the PV on the other side of the world in Siberia. Hopefully this is like a reload and then when it goes negative again it will dive down into Canada instead of the other side. Agree...losing the blocking was a necessary evil to allow it to head on over. Wouldn't mind if it sagged just a little further south. Of course...day 10+ ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 19 minutes ago, packbacker said: Agree...losing the blocking was a necessary evil to allow it to head on over. Wouldn't mind if it sagged just a little further south. Of course...day 10+ ensembles. Yeah I completely agree. It's a funny way of looking at it but we do need to lose the blocking because obviously it was not helping with the cold centered of Siberia since October. We need high pressure to set in over Siberia instead dead over the pole. Of course this is almost thinking backwards but I think in the long run it will lead to our advantage instead of it being a disadvantage. Hopefully this will reset the PV to come over our part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 GEFS and EPS start to diverge day 11-12. Both show a signal for something day 12 or so for the east. Euro ejects a piece of energy from the pac low and then retrogrades the rest of it. Looks like the GEFS does too but then slides the rest of the trough east. Both bias's could be at play but which one is correct? Both show a much colder pattern for the midwest/east and a more typical Nina pattern. And no, I am not calling for a east coast winter storm day 10+...but if either of these patterns evolve would think something in the TN/OH-V to MA to NE would be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 Joe D's latest Pioneer model has D-F in the freezer for the central plains and east. Verbatim it looks like it has NC and upper NC/SC in the -3 to -4F range. Edit: It looks like some of the coldest/snowiest nina winters we have had. Very close to composite below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2016 Share Posted November 28, 2016 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Joe D's latest Pioneer model has D-F in the freezer for the central plains and east. Verbatim it looks like it has NC and upper NC/SC in the -3 to -4F range. Who is Joe D? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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