snowlover91 Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 4 hours ago, griteater said: Thanks for posting and good luck with your forecast. Everyone seems to be going cool to start out winter. Someone needs to go against that and become the hero if it is warm. Thanks! I honestly don't see much to indicate a cooler pattern after mid-January and many times Niña winters can be more front loaded with the cold weather. The sign of a pattern flip by mid to late November also increases my confidence in the early cold/late warmth scenario playing out. I think Cosgrove will be wrong with his winter forecast for a colder February and march tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: Larry Cosgrove doesn't foresee cold in the SE until at least Feb. Although I am beginning to wonder about the science content of his forecasts. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/weatheramerica OK, I recall now hearing that he went warm early. I have yet to read his write-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 5, 2016 Share Posted November 5, 2016 9 hours ago, snowlover91 said: Winter forecast my friend and I worked on. https://m.facebook.com/Central-Eastern-NC-Weather-269149099872626/?ref=bookmarks Good write up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 3 hours ago, griteater said: OK, I recall now hearing that he went warm early. I have yet to read his write-up. He basically calls for a slow start to winter with the cold beginning to take over the Midwest in January and then the Eastern half of the US February/March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 We need to get snow on the ground in Canada, but it looks like that will start happening toward the end of the runs from the past day or two. Minneapolis is about to break their record for their latest freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted November 6, 2016 Share Posted November 6, 2016 I am betting on an ULL to save MBY. Around beginning of February. Sorry for the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 10 hours ago, No snow for you said: I am betting on an ULL to save MBY. Around beginning of February. Sorry for the rest of you. Oh, I know MBY will get snow..... question is: how much? I have never seen a winter without accumulating snowfall. And I will be 52 years old come Jan. That's pretty good odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 34 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Oh, I know MBY will get snow..... question is: how much? I have never seen a winter without accumulating snowfall. And I will be 52 years old come Jan. That's pretty good odds. There's always a first for everything and with weather acting like it has lately I wouldn't rule anything out. Unless of course you are like 3,000' or higher. What's your elevation ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 8 hours ago, SimeonNC said: I can't say anything for you but I know that Charlotte in it's entire meteorological history has never had a snowless year and only 11 out of the 134 years of record keeping have only reported a trace of snow. I think it's safe to say that Charlotte, along with a lot of this forum WILL get snow. There's also nothing pointing to the set up of this winter compared to last year or other Nina years that points to a potentially snowless winter for a lot of us in this forum. I've seen flakes every winter I have lived in GA since 1989. I've never lived further south than Woodstock, GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.C. Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 2 hours ago, WXinCanton said: I've seen flakes every winter I have lived in GA since 1989. I've never further south than Woodstock, GA. That side of Georgia usually gets flakes several times per year with a northwest flow. When I was in Paulding County we would get several dustings throughout the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 12 hours ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Oh, I know MBY will get snow..... question is: how much? I have never seen a winter without accumulating snowfall. And I will be 52 years old come Jan. That's pretty good odds. It has happened in that area though. The NWS reported that the winter of 2011-2012 was the first time since they have been keeping records, back to the late 1800's, that Asheville didn't receive any measurable snow. And was the first winter that there wasn't even a flake reported in the GSP area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 Quickly plotted some clunker nina's v/s the "snowy/cold" nina's for Oct/Nov to compare for what we have seen so far. Not exactly a recipe for cold/snowy so far Bottom left - snowy/cold nina's Bottom right - warm/snowless ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 1 hour ago, tonysc said: It has happened in that area though. The NWS reported that the winter of 2011-2012 was the first time since they have been keeping records, back to the late 1800's, that Asheville didn't receive any measurable snow. And was the first winter that there wasn't even a flake reported in the GSP area. Asheville may not had seen any snow but the airport lies in a plane really. But the mountains did see some snow that winter although pretty meager. I saw 14 inches of snowfall that yeah. That was one of the worst winters I can remember . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 EDIT: Sorry put this in the wrong thread... Frost Warnings for central NC: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 201 PM EST MON NOV 7 2016 ...FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT... NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-080900- /O.NEW.KRAH.FR.Y.0002.161108T0800Z-161108T1400Z/ PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM- WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUSHY FORK...CONCORD...ROXBORO...SURL... OXFORD...BUTNER...CREEDMOOR...DABNEY...HENDERSON...NORLINA... WISE...AFTON...WARRENTON...LAKE GASTON...ROANOKE RAPIDS... PFAFFTOWN...STANLEYVILLE...WINSTON-SALEM...GREENSBORO... LAKE TOWNSEND...HIGH POINT...BURLINGTON...GRAHAM...CHAPEL HILL... CARRBORO...BETHESDA...DURHAM...RESEARCH TRIANGLE...PILOT... INGLESIDE...LOUISBURG...FRANKLINTON...NASHVILLE...AVENTON... RED OAK...SHARPSBURG...SPRING HOPE...ROCKY MOUNT...LEXINGTON... THOMASVILLE...ASHEBORO...ULAH...ARCHDALE...TRINITY...HASTY... SILER CITY...BYNUM...MONCURE...PITTSBORO...RALEIGH...CARY... SMITHFIELD...CLAYTON...FLOWERS...SELMA...BENSON... COATS CROSSROADS...NEW HOPE...WILSON...ALBEMARLE...PLYLER... TROY...BISCOE...MOUNT GILEAD...PEKIN...BADIN LAKE...ELDORADO... SOUTHERN PINES...PINEHURST...ABERDEEN...EAGLE SPRINGS... SEVEN LAKES...CUMNOCK...GUM SPRINGS...SANFORD...TRAMWAY...DUNN... ANDERSON CREEK...TIMBERLAKE...DUNCAN...ERWIN...ANGIER... LILLINGTON...GOLDSBORO...WADESBORO...POLKTON...ROCKINGHAM... HAMLET...EAST ROCKINGHAM...LAUREL HILL...LAURINBURG...ANTIOCH... ASHLEY HEIGHTS...RAEFORD...ROCKFISH...SILVER CITY... FAYETTEVILLE...FORT BRAGG...CLINTON 201 PM EST MON NOV 7 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY MORNING. * TEMPERATURES...32 TO 37 DEGREES. * TIMING...FROST WILL BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 3 AM AND 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE. * IMPACTS...SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SENSITIVE PLANTS IN CONTAINERS SHOULD BE BROUGHT INDOORS. OUTDOOR PLANTS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST SHOULD BE COVERED WITH FABRIC, OLD BED SHEETS, BURLAP, OR A COMMERCIAL FROST CLOTH FOR PROTECTION. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 6 hours ago, SimeonNC said: Refer to my post about how the Charlotte area has never seen a snowless winter. 2011-2012 was one of the only 11 trace years in 134 years of recordkeeping Everyone is free to decide on their own definition of snowless. If you can miss it because you're sleeping for me that is snowless. If you can see grass sticking up through the snow, for me that is not a significant snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 7, 2016 Share Posted November 7, 2016 7 hours ago, tonysc said: It has happened in that area though. The NWS reported that the winter of 2011-2012 was the first time since they have been keeping records, back to the late 1800's, that Asheville didn't receive any measurable snow. And was the first winter that there wasn't even a flake reported in the GSP area. Not in modern history.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, jburns said: Everyone is free to decide on their own definition of snowless. If you can miss it because you're sleeping for me that is snowless. If you can see grass sticking up through the snow, for me that is not a significant snowfall. I guess it depends on how tall the grass is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 21 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I guess it depends on how tall the grass is. If you can still see the onions, it's just a trace! just wondering about the " front loaded " winter. As we head into mid November, Canada is not cold and definitely not snowy, so just want to know where the cold is going to come from? Please don't say stray warming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: If you can still see the onions, it's just a trace! just wondering about the " front loaded " winter. As we head into mid November, Canada is not cold and definitely not snowy, so just want to know where the cold is going to come from? Please don't say stray warming! Cross polar flow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 9 hours ago, packbacker said: Quickly plotted some clunker nina's v/s the "snowy/cold" nina's for Oct/Nov to compare for what we have seen so far. Not exactly a recipe for cold/snowy so far Bottom left - snowy/cold nina's Bottom right - warm/snowless ninas thats what I figured and recollect. However, we may have an ace in the hole this time, that being the early ssw/polar vortex displacement. don't think any of those mild fall nina analogs had this occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: If you can still see the onions, it's just a trace! just wondering about the " front loaded " winter. As we head into mid November, Canada is not cold and definitely not snowy, so just want to know where the cold is going to come from? Please don't say stray warming! That's what I'm wondering also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NWNC2015 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Pacific will grow very trash post Christmas. Need to score late November/December which I think is possible outside of the mountains maybe once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 24 minutes ago, NWNC2015 said: Pacific will grow very trash post Christmas. Need to score early November/December which I think is possible outside of the mountains maybe once. I'm not sure what you are talking about but it's trash currently . It's driving this crappy pattern and the jet all the way up in Canada currently . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Cross polar flow!! Recurving typhoon, FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 10 hours ago, packbacker said: Quickly plotted some clunker nina's v/s the "snowy/cold" nina's for Oct/Nov to compare for what we have seen so far. Not exactly a recipe for cold/snowy so far Bottom left - snowy/cold nina's Bottom right - warm/snowless ninas WRT strat, I see the opposite for snowy weak Ninas since 1950. I'm leaving any moderate Ninas out as I'm almost certain we'll have a Weak Nina through winter if not most likely one that trends neutral. Expanded on what our own Allan Huffman tweeted out yesterday and used the snowiest weak Ninas and what I think is a very important aspect to the performance of this winter...the PV.. Current forecast centered 11/15 50mb temps for November in 5 snowiest Weak Ninas since 1950 (at least 6.9" at RDU...average for the sum of all 5 years is 10.36" of snow) Last November Last December (etc. etc. we all know how this turned out. PV wrapped up at the pole all winter) Weak Ninas from above December composite...PV so perturbed in these winters that there's hardly any negative anomalies on the map. Just throwing late night ideas out there. We are in such a better place than last year it's ridiculous. I anticipate an early start to winter and what can possibly be a wall-to-wall *decent* winter until March (as I believe March torches). This winter will be odd and could behave much like a neutral ENSO year, and we could be weak Nina for a month then be neutral most of the winter...highly volatile and very hard to predict. Seeing the PV get some attention in the beginning of November is an awesome, awesome sign. PV is here to troll us again this winter, I just hope we're on the winning side this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 6 minutes ago, Jon said: WRT strat, I see the opposite for snowy weak Ninas since 1950. I'm leaving any moderate Ninas out as I'm almost certain we'll have a Weak Nina through winter if not most likely one that trends neutral. Expanded on what our own Allan Huffman tweeted out yesterday and used the snowiest weak Ninas and what I think is a very important aspect to the performance of this winter...the PV.. Current forecast centered 11/15 50mb temps for November in 5 snowiest Weak Ninas since 1950 (at least 6.9" at RDU...average for the sum of all 5 years is 10.36" of snow) Last November Last December (etc. etc. we all know how this turned out. PV wrapped up at the pole all winter) Weak Ninas from above December composite...PV so perturbed in these winters that there's hardly any negative anomalies on the map. Just throwing late night ideas out there. We are in such a better place than last year it's ridiculous. I anticipate an early start to winter and what can possibly be a wall-to-wall *decent* winter until March (as I believe March torches). This winter will be odd and could behave much like a neutral ENSO year, and we could be weak Nina for a month then be neutral most of the winter...highly volatile and very hard to predict. Seeing the PV get some attention in the beginning of November is an awesome, awesome sign. PV is here to troll us again this winter, I just hope we're on the winning side this time. Good work Jon. As I suspected might be the case. Point I alluded to with above post. That's our ace in the hole. Again, great work man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Jon - I can't remember a winter where every single seasonal model is warm for the conus. Even JB updated his forecast and backed off of his early season thinking. For us he has Dec cold but Jan slightly AN with Feb neutral. He also backed off snow forecast. There isn't a lot weak Nina's that are AN for Nov (4 of 19) and only one weak Nina (05/06) that was AN for both Oct/Nov. I went back and took a quick look at how many BN months we have had since March 2014....answer is 2. There was a couple of other months that were neutral though. That is bleak...warm is kicking ass and taking names right now. Look what happened at the winters following the last super Nino...maybe a price to be paid for the still very warm SST's. For the record I don't think we blowtorch this winter but it is on the table. I posted last week how the top 5 SCE winters were fairly extreme for cold/winter. Hopefully that wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Just looking at JB's forecast again...can't remember him forecasting that warm for a Jan/Feb. He doesn't have any of the conus BN in Jan, and slightly below for Feb for Oh-V. Has snow BN for bulk of SC/GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 Today's weeklies apparently look about as ugly as can be. blowtorch for most of the country with the big vortex in the bering sea directing traffic. One run though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted November 8, 2016 Share Posted November 8, 2016 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Just looking at JB's forecast again...can't remember him forecasting that warm for a Jan/Feb. He doesn't have any of the conus BN in Jan, and slightly below for Feb for Oh-V. Has snow BN for bulk of SC/GA. Last year he was way off for the SE from what I remember. I think it's safe to say this winter will also be tough to forecast as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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