Chinook Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 possible tornado on the ground -- AT 515 PM CDT/615 PM EDT/...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER OWENSVILLE...OR NEAR FORT BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. INDIANA STATE POLICE IS RELAYING REPORTS OF A TORNADO ON THE GROUND NEAR OWENSVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 AT 526 PM CDT/626 PM EDT/...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORT A WALL CLOUD ROTATING JUST SOUTH OF FORT BRANCH NEAR HIGHWAY 168. THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM WAS SHOWN BY RADAR LOCATED OVER FORT BRANCH...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Intriguing to see a potential lunch time severe weather event up here tomorrow. Both models are very supportive of severe weather with the NAM showing solid SRH indicating a slight tornado potential across NW Ohio tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 645 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN HAMILTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 643 PM CDT...SPOTTERS REPORT A TREMENDOUS WALL CLOUD NEAR JOHNSTON CITY. AND SPOTTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ORIENT.... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... GALATIA AROUND 700 PM CDT. ELDORADO AROUND 710 PM CDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 * AT 643 PM CDT...SPOTTERS REPORT A TREMENDOUS WALL CLOUD NEAR JOHNSTON CITY. AND SPOTTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ORIENT.... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. What the heck is this garbage? Reminding me of that "rain shaft violent wedge" a couple of years ago in the same CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 Storms devoloping just SW of me with decent helicity around Did the atmosphere recover just enough over North central il ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 What the heck is this garbage? Reminding me of that "rain shaft violent wedge" a couple of years ago in the same CWA. Just noticed that when I checked up on what's happening minutes ago, never seen that phrase in a warning used before. Is it "TREMENDOUS"? I know a certain politician who uses that word a good deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 11, 2016 Share Posted May 11, 2016 * UNTIL 730 PM CDT * AT 643 PM CDT...SPOTTERS REPORT A TREMENDOUS WALL CLOUD NEAR JOHNSTON CITY. AND SPOTTERS RECENTLY REPORTED A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR ORIENT.... MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 What the heck is this garbage? Reminding me of that "rain shaft violent wedge" a couple of years ago in the same CWA. People might not take shelter if the wall cloud isn't tremendous looking hahaha? CINH is only at the surface as the ML is good so it's not a totally bad environment and current mesoanalysis shows those cells entering an area of higher SRH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Looks like a supercell structure in E IA, it is severe warned and has a weak meso looking featute aloft along with an appendage at the sfc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Tennis to baseball size hail with those storms around St. Louis Metro at present. Yikes!boss from St Louis sent me a pic. Baseball sized for sure. Crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
illinois Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Just noticed that when I checked up on what's happening minutes ago, never seen that phrase in a warning used before. Is it "TREMENDOUS"? I know a certain politician who uses that word a good deal.It was a really, really great wall cloud. Just the best. When I am president we will only have the finest wall clouds and Mexico will pay for them. Donald Trump on Wednesdays severe weather outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 In other news Indianapolis is now under a svr storm warning. My point forecast said storms would occur after 5 a,m, tonight. Duh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Couplet near Bourbon, MO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 822 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 MOC055-071-221-120145- /O.CON.KLSX.TO.W.0010.000000T0000Z-160512T0145Z/ FRANKLIN MO-CRAWFORD MO-WASHINGTON MO- 822 PM CDT WED MAY 11 2016 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FRANKLIN...NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES... AT 822 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BOURBON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS...AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. THIS TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... SULLIVAN AROUND 835 PM CDT. MIRAMIGUOA PARK AROUND 845 PM CDT. THIS ALSO INCLUDES MERAMEC STATE PARK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I have a question, Does 'radar confirmed tornado" mean TOG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I have a question, Does 'radar confirmed tornado" mean TOG? I assume they are seeing debris when they say that? Also when there is a confirmed tornado in a town why do the warnings say A confirmed tornado OVER the town implying it is aloft and therefore a funnel cloud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I have a question, Does 'radar confirmed tornado" mean TOG?Essentially. With the implementation of dual-pol radars, tornados can be pretty much confirmed to be going on without actually having eyes on it by looking for certain debris signatures (i.e. Lowered correlation coefficient co-located with a velocity couplet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Ran up the river to east of Clinton/Fulton to check out the slow moving sup moving in from Iowa. RFD knifed in several times, and a few times got the wall cloud spinning pretty nicely. Actually thought it may produce at one point. Nice downward motion in the cut. Storm even had a little inflow into it. Followed it to near Morrison before it proceeded to crap the bed. Short time lapse between Fulton and Morrison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 0Z GFS looking good for some potentially really nice Severe Storms today, particularly east of I-69. Waste of a potentially better setup, but as with most weather, the better the setup the more risk of someone dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Hardly shocked by the latest day 1 outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 I'm not too enthused about today and I'm not sure what Hillsdale is looking at. The GFS and NAM look quite average, not nearly as promising as earlier. I'm not too big of a fan of noon time severe chances, hard to get instability and shear in the warm sector that's worth a damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 Sunshine breaking through. No crapvection to speak of this morning. Hmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 12, 2016 Author Share Posted May 12, 2016 This morning's Day 2 has a Slight from E KS, N MO, SE IA, and W/C IL for Friday: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...NERN KS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION... LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN THIS REGION WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S F. HOWEVER...LEADING EDGE OF COLDER AIR ALOFT ACCOMPANYING SEWD-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD SEWD ABOVE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP SFC-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND 400-800 J/KG MLCAPE. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG SEWD-MOVING COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN 40-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT WITH INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS...COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 12, 2016 Share Posted May 12, 2016 This sucks that the front is hanging back until prime time allowing plenty of destabilization to occur. Yet essentially no shear in the warm sector is going to more than likely put a damper on severe chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 This morning's first Day 1: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html ...EASTERN KS TO MID MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... A SURFACE LOW LOCATED ALONG THE PLAINS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NEB TO NORTHERN MO BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IL TO NORTHERN INDIANA. ALTHOUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY INITIALLY...A NARROW PLUME OF RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S REACHING EASTERN KS TO WEST-CENTRAL IL. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH THIS MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF AN EML /STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES/ SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE MODEST INSTABILITY...STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELDS AND BULK SHEAR SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE LIKELY AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL RESULT IN DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. HOWEVER...A 40-45 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KS TO WESTERN IL SUGGESTS A TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY DURING THE EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO WEAKENING CONVECTION. DURING THAT TIME FRAME...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN WHILE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INCREASES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 13, 2016 Author Share Posted May 13, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM from E KS all the way to W IL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0174.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8PM from E KS all the way to W IL: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0174.html Looks like a big fail too nothing too impressive. I headed towards QC from Escanaba but changed my mind once I got to Rockford when I saw the stuff on the north end struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 Yup. Looks like nothing more than a rain event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 13, 2016 Share Posted May 13, 2016 HRRR has shown this as a non-event since it first came into range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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