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Ginx snewx

Winter 2016/2017 because its never too early

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The truth is that because we have such an obscene amount of data, there are so many damn correlations that you are going to find one to support either argument every year.

I got burned going for a slightly neg NAO last year, largely because Al Marino had some very trust worthy correlations that were decidedly in favor of a neg NAO....go back and check my outlook, as I cited them.

Miserable failure.

Our samples are still so small in the grand scheme of things, that you can have a correlation go 25/25, and it still doesn't really mean a damn.....it will take you another 150 years to realize that its worthless.

You just have to weigh everything out...thus far, the only info supporting a +NAO are the +QBO and the modoki la nina.

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And even so, 10-11 had a Modoki La Niña with a +QBO with a -NAO in December and January. But we still don't know the implications of having a +qbo for this long, right after a potent Nino. Right now I'd lean towards a front loaded winter that relaxes in feb, but could come roaring back in march with dropping qbo and low solar, but what do I know. 

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1 hour ago, Powderboy413 said:

And even so, 10-11 had a Modoki La Niña with a +QBO with a -NAO in December and January. But we still don't know the implications of having a +qbo for this long, right after a potent Nino. Right now I'd lean towards a front loaded winter that relaxes in feb, but could come roaring back in march with dropping qbo and low solar, but what do I know. 

The 2010-2011 La Niña was more east-based in the early part of that winter (Nov - Jan). During January the Niña shifted west to a modoki event and that's when all the blocking completely fell apart by the beginning of February and it never came back again

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24 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 2010-2011 La Niña was more east-based in the early part of that winter (Nov - Jan). During January the Niña shifted west to a modoki event and that's when all the blocking completely fell apart by the beginning of February and it never came back again

You're a barrel of laughs.

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Not that anyone asked but my hypothesis is that SST correlations in general are bit more muddled compared to the "somewhat" steadier correlation findings back when many of these were gleaned out of the environment/sciences in the middle of last Century.  (this is in deference to specifically the Pacific/ENSO's forcing during cold/transition seasons).

The reason for that, in my thinking .. . , is that Global Warming changes the trigger points for atmospheric response in the conceptual-quasi-coupled ocean-atmospheric system. 

In small words, that model goes like: if the air is warmer (cooler), there is less gradient with respect to the warm (cool) water biases up underneath.  That effects the integration rates/latent heat fluxes in any fluid dynamics system. That's just scientific law - why should such laws not pertain to the relationship between the ocean and atmosphere? It would be illogical to believe otherwise... 

That simple precept can/should be taken further. Combined with the seasonal variations in planetary insolation (sun), they intrinsically guide the construction of the "global circulation engine".  Changes in the terrestrial regions of source heat and sinks (in both spatial and temporal domains) thus changes the mechanics of air and sea, and transitively ...land interactions.  The atmosphere just responds differently when it, too, is warmer.   

This should all be tested mathematically/physically/ but I simply don't believe an x-y-z warm NINO state means the same thing in 2020 as it does/did in 1970 ...or 1870. It's a suspicion I began toying with many, many months ago, ? when a drop-off in Global volcanic frequency ?, perhaps returned the atmosphere to a smoother warming trend; perhaps when we came into this present era of consecutively (relative to season)  warming every month to record proportions immediately subsequent to the previous month. It is an incredible smoking gun string of persistence that could not be firing off any more louder bullets for climate change - that may be an understatement. People can rationalize it all they want to bargain/deny what it means in order to protect their special-interest reason/needs, but that's just knee jerk-isms to off-set acceptance of implications that they can't get what they want.  Not in politics.  Not in sectors of industry/economics keyed into exploiting the environment.  And even not to the whimpering beleaguered, saddened souls fiddling with word choices on social media.. 

Last year's apparently weak impact, yet still 'historically' hot ENSO, I believe, fits in with this line of thinking.  Yeah, the NINO districts were ridiculously warm onto their own historical inference, but ... was all that historic warmth also relative to the air?    That's really what matters - not the orange and red color toning of graphical alarmist products.  

Gradient drives everything.  It doesn't matter how hot(cold) anything is in the atmosphere.  It all needs a counterbalancing negative(positive) region to drain into - the 'storms' are the currents the flow between.  If everything warms(cools) unilaterally, doesn't mean much.

Personally, I think the more important question, ...is the AO and it's shared domain spaces with the WPO-EPO-NAO.  

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17 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This is a good post and why the Nina watch cancel from NCEP is kind of silly. Perhaps the SSTs aren't telling much, but the atmosohete is talking as we can see from this graphic. There is more to ENSO than SST anomalies and location...graphics like these help show that.

Thanks Scott! Looking forward to another winter.

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18 hours ago, snowman19 said:

HM just tweeted this morning that you can see Classic -IOD forcing in the OLR. Is this OLR configuration altered further due to the modoki La Niña?  

IMG_8128.PNG

Im not really sure how to answer the Modoki part, but I will say having the IOD play in with ENSO is pretty common, though maybe more common to have such a -IOD with a stronger Nina system than what we see "verbatim" SST wise. The more subsidence over the IO west of the Indo uplift, the better for us cold-wanters I believe

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15 hours ago, uncle W said:

the winters of 1980-81 and 1983-84 followed an el nino and was cold overall...Dec-Jan were cold...February was mild both years...March was cold both years with the biggest snowfall of the season in NYC...

1983-84 and 1980-81.png

feb 1981 84.png

Feb. 1981 was to CAR what Dec. 2015 was to NYC.  From start of data in 1939 thru 1980, CAR's mildest Feb temp was 49, set in 1976 when the groundhog day storm flooded BGR with south gales and CAR's barometer reached 957 mb.  Feb. 1981 tied that record twice and had 7 days 50 to 52.  Of the 14 Feb. days with 49 or milder in CAR's 78-year records, 9 came in that one month, which averaged 14.7° AN.

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JAMSTEC OCTOBER UPDATE:

ENSO...Jamstec thinks tropics warm from this point

wNifat1.gif


SEA SURFACE TEMPS....strong +PDO

ssta.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif


SURFACE TEMPS...very weird looking; however, you can pick out:
1. ridging all along the west coast in winter 2014-15 fashion with the very warm anomalies
2. trough in the east with the lighter shades of red
3. ridging around Davis Strait with the bright red warm anomalies

temp2.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

 

tprep.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's my take but without a 500mb hard to tell for sure.  A month to month version of this & 500mb would be very helpful.  But it looks earily similar to 2014-15 winter setup if I'm correct except for the blocking around Davis Strait. Again, guessing by temp anomalies can be tricky.

It's also very weird how all the seasonal models have warmer anomalies even where a good cold pattern exists. There either skewed by the El Nino spike, onto something, or just plain wrong.

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27 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

JAMSTEC OCTOBER UPDATE:

ENSO...Jamstec thinks tropics warm from this point

wNifat1.gif


SEA SURFACE TEMPS....strong +PDO

ssta.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif


SURFACE TEMPS...very weird looking; however, you can pick out:
1. ridging all along the west coast in winter 2014-15 fashion with the very warm anomalies
2. trough in the east with the lighter shades of red
3. ridging around Davis Strait with the bright red warm anomalies

temp2.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif

 

tprep.glob.DJF2017.1oct2016.gif
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's my take but without a 500mb hard to tell for sure.  A month to month version of this & 500mb would be very helpful.  But it looks earily similar to 2014-15 winter setup if I'm correct except for the blocking around Davis Strait. Again, guessing by temp anomalies can be tricky.

It's also very weird how all the seasonal models have warmer anomalies even where a good cold pattern exists. There either skewed by the El Nino spike, onto something, or just plain wrong.

Name me a modoki la nina that ever snowed in the US...

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A classic climate model like the JAMSTEC almost certainly has the GHG forcing biasing the "cold side" of a pattern too warm. You see it in other climate models too.

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Conference call with Schneider Electric today for their winter outlook.  (for entertainment only)

3 analogs, 83/84 95/96, and 98/99.   BN and snowy pretty much the entire C and N tier of the CONUS, AN S tier.

 

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7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You're a barrel of laughs.

Look at the progression of the ENSO regions' cold anomalies from Nov - Feb during the 10-11 La Niña. It clearly moved west during the winter and became a modoki by Feb. That's fact, not my opinion 

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35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was in jest...breathe....jk

 

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It was in jest...breathe....jk

Lol

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8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the gradient is most important, but having adequate cold is, as well, or your gradient runs down the drain.

:blink: ur kidding, right - 

 

you can't have gradient without cold vs hot - 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

:blink: ur kidding, right - 

 

you can't have gradient without cold vs hot - 

I took it to mean he's alluding to the fact that if you are on the wrong side of the gradient, you watch the rain run down the drain.  Adequate cold meaning over New England so the gradient is over the adjacent coastal waters and not inland.

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Well you can clearly see the highest anomalies of warmth centered over the Western US with lower anomalies in NE and it is not dry here, it is actually showing slightly AN precipitation. The guy you quoted was from Indiana and the maps were drier in the Midwest.

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2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I took it to mean he's alluding to the fact that if you are on the wrong side of the gradient, you watch the rain run down the drain.  Adequate cold meaning over New England so the gradient is over the adjacent coastal waters and not inland.

Glad someone isn't kidding-

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