Spanks45 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: That's voodoo too. We had snow in many Octobers that had good winters. Good to know, then I can still root for October snow without paying the price later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 17 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: Good to know, then I can still root for October snow without paying the price later on... The whole thing was based on a small sample size for BOS. The funny thing is that Oct 79 and Oct 09 were winters that delivered off to the south....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: October has little to no skill in predicting winter. That's like saying April can predict summer. Not sure why people get so nervous when it gets warm in October. This week is really kind of a faux ..or mock Indian Summer. To paraphrase the more classic definition of that is a return to a week of summer-like homage after a more convincing stint of colder times, perhaps even following a first snow. Usually this happens in November - so mentioning this in the same idea as mid October is perhaps pushing it (hence "faux") However, we have seen the deconstruction of summer like circulation medium and the returning of more gradient at mid levels/higher velocities akin to descending through the polar side transition season, nonetheless.. And, with that, polar highs with nightly frosts and freezes have taken place. Now the flow relaxes and the ridge bulges N and we catch wind of warmth for several days. It's similar in a lot of ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That's voodoo too. We had snow in many Octobers that had good winters. list? not ORH please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: list? not ORH please Why? It's voodoo as we have been over this countless times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This week is really kind of a faux ..or mock Indian Summer. To paraphrase the more classic definition of that is a return to a week of summer-like homage after a more convincing stint of colder times, perhaps even following a first snow. Usually this happens in November - so mentioning this in the same idea as mid October is perhaps pushing it (hence "faux") However, we have seen the deconstruction of summer like circulation medium and the returning of more gradient at mid levels/higher velocities akin to descending through the polar side transition season, nonetheless.. And, with that, polar highs with nightly frosts and freezes have taken place. Now the flow relaxes and the ridge bulges N and we catch wind of warmth for several days. It's similar in a lot of ways... We are going to be in our own little world compared to the Plains over the next two weeks. Maybe both owed to wavelenghts and some blocking...the Plains will be quite warm compared to our corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 I think there is somewhat of an inverse correlation regarding Oct temps and wintertime seasonal anomalies....the correlation is a positive one with November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 19 hours ago, EasternLI said: That actually argues for the warm waters in the tropical west Pacific having more of an influence. The dry signal south of Japan and the lack of a wet signal over Australia argue the same. I'm wondering if the -IOD transitioning to neutral/positive through the winter allows the tropical west Pacific to have more of a say. We recently had a negative spike in the IOD, however it's modeled to transition to neutral/positive by Feb. Encouraging.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: TBH, just anecdotally, I tend to not mind $hit patterns in October, so much. Anyway, looks like we know what the Catch lingo is this season. PV a couple of years ago, IOD this year. There's been a lot of talk on the +QBO as well this year in addition to the -IOD event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 There was a burst of - anomalies earlier this summer that may have a hangover effect too. We have no idea how that works into the picture along with the westerlies developing above it. Will the westerlies even be that strong? http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 I'm told that the ECMWF Seasonal Model came out with an update does anyone know what it shows for the U.S.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: There's been a lot of talk on the +QBO as well this year in addition to the -IOD event I'll be honest with you....I have vowed to weight the QBO more heavily after last year did not go entirely as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 2 hours ago, WhiteoutMD said: I'm told that the ECMWF Seasonal Model came out with an update does anyone know what it shows for the U.S.? The euro sip is an interesting. Unfortunately it only shows us anomalies which is different than actual 500mb height patterns. However, I think one can infer what is going on. Basically, he shows the potential for lower height anomalies near the NE US and SE Canada with heigher heihgts over Greenland, out west, and over the souther US. A rather strange look. However, the euro sip is a combo of several seasonal models, so maybe models are skewed one way or another. My simple takeaway is that it seems that the models have higher chances of AN heights (ridging) out near the west coast of US, and perhaps in Greenland. It also seems some models perhaps are showing a more SE or srn US ridge which happens in Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Don't we (in eastern NE) sometimes do well with a bit of a SE ridge? I seem to recall some explosive late developers walloping the area. Maybe I just made that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 1 hour ago, JBinStoughton said: Don't we (in eastern NE) sometimes do well with a bit of a SE ridge? I seem to recall some explosive late developers walloping the area. Maybe I just made that up. Depends how strong the SE ridge is and whether or not we can get some confluence to our northeast. This confluence allows high pressure to build in north of Maine. We had this in December 07 and 08 where eastern areas had record or near record snow. For you and I, we generally will do well with good high pressure nearby, even if we do flip to some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Remarkable...all these weak La Nina Octobers had a ridge parked over U.S. east of the Rockies for the Oct. 1-15: 2013 2008 2005 1984 1983 DJF of those years looked like this: DJF of those years: Hmmm....Guess we don't need to freak out over October warmth. I'd say things are going along exactly the way you'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 17, 2016 Author Share Posted October 17, 2016 8 hours ago, CoastalWx said: Why? It's voodoo as we have been over this countless times. looking for stats to verify your claim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 Well Nina Octobers are usually warm anyways. Not always, but many times it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 let's talk about the sai. i still think it's voodoo after its epic fail two years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 17, 2016 Share Posted October 17, 2016 22 minutes ago, forkyfork said: let's talk about the sai. i still think it's voodoo after its epic fail two years ago I thought about that. I'm not sold on the correlation that it pimps out, but I wonder if it means more, in the weak or neutral ENSO events like we have now. Part of me thinks the strong ENSO signal last year was a big FU to that correlation...however, I'm still cautious on using the SAI. I just wonder if other signals can easily overwhelm the SAI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 A bit off topic, but I was wondering if there have been any major snowstorms that have slammed all of New England South and North(or virtually all but maybe Cape and Islands, sorry to James)? What sort of set up is required for that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 23 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: A bit off topic, but I was wondering if there have been any major snowstorms that have slammed all of New England South and North(or virtually all but maybe Cape and Islands, sorry to James)? What sort of set up is required for that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 18, 2016 Author Share Posted October 18, 2016 28 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said: A bit off topic, but I was wondering if there have been any major snowstorms that have slammed all of New England South and North(or virtually all but maybe Cape and Islands, sorry to James)? What sort of set up is required for that to happen? http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Blizzards_2005_to_present.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Obviously a Mar 93 setup with a slightly further east track would have crushed everyone in the region. It's pretty rare to pull 1-2ft around MHT while PIT and SYR get crushed too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Thanks for the quick replies (and great link). I'm a bit embarrassed about the February 2014 storm--it goes to show you how parochial we weather weenies can be! I got a nice hit IMBY and forgot about the magnitude of the storm for the whole region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 14 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: looking for stats to verify your claim Using a place like BOS gives you basically no correlation because the sample size is too low. Using a place like ORH gives you no correlation because the median and mean winters after October snows were extremely close to climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Using a place like BOS gives you basically no correlation because the sample size is too low. Using a place like ORH gives you no correlation because the median and mean winters after October snows were extremely close to climo. On top of that, if you are trying to say you can predict the winter climatology by using a small sample size (Boston) and tossing out a station 40 miles away (Worcester)...then you don't understand how weather works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 11 hours ago, J Paul Gordon said: A bit off topic, but I was wondering if there have been any major snowstorms that have slammed all of New England South and North(or virtually all but maybe Cape and Islands, sorry to James)? What sort of set up is required for that to happen? December 5-6 2003 is what I think of for region wide snowstorm. Not often I can get 20" while south of Boston does too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 October events can be fluky cutoffs (like 2005). That simply has no correlation to a season pattern. Fall is known for cutoffs as wavelengths adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 18, 2016 Share Posted October 18, 2016 Feb 13 2014. The forgotten pork job for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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