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Model Mezzanine - 3rd times a charm

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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That was one of my favorite events from high school near ALB. It wasn't that warm, I think it hit 70F with soccer practice in shorts on Saturday, followed by snowblowing 12" off the driveway by noon on Sunday. Even when we went to bed it was like 48F and the chances for big snow seemed far off, but sure enough awoke to 1-2"/hr and it piled up quick that morning.

That was one where it came so hard and fast that the wet, warm ground argument held no weight, even roads had same accums as lawns. When it goes to a couple inches per hour it doesn't matter how warm it was the day prior.

I wasn't in Albany, but I remember several inches in the Mid-Hudson Valley, even at low elevations.  Down that way snow accumulations are usually confined to >1000 ft elevation in April.

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Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
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Euro ensembles definitely bumped NW from 00z for Friday night event. Scraper for SE MA.

 

Still needs a lot of work though for a meaningful hit on the region as a whole. But get another tick or two like that and it becomes very interesting.

Another 2 days and I will consider getting a transfer to ride this bus.  For now, I am not going to waste time and energy, and just stay aboard the Spring Time Express, with a final destination of mid-Morch and beyond. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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That was one of my favorite events from high school near ALB. It wasn't that warm, I think it hit 70F with soccer practice in shorts on Saturday, followed by snowblowing 12" off the driveway by noon on Sunday. Even when we went to bed it was like 48F and the chances for big snow seemed far off, but sure enough awoke to 1-2"/hr and it piled up quick that morning.

That was one where it came so hard and fast that the wet, warm ground argument held no weight, even roads had same accums as lawns. When it goes to a couple inches per hour it doesn't matter how warm it was the day prior.

 

No recollection of that ... I'll probably nerd out over the NCEP library tonight looking that one up... But I was living in Waltham over here in eastern MA at the time, and I'm almost wondering if that snow part of the big change came more to western zones? 

 

hnmm.  do you guys know the specific Apr dates?

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

and per Will's mentioning the Euro ensemble trend...

 

Comparing the 00z and 12z: the GFS members trended massively toward a deeper system, also more NW at the weekender - hate to say ...and I know most have nothing left in the tanks but sarcasm and ridicule, but, a few of those members bring a severe winter event to CT/RI/SE mass, with moderate to S VT/NH/ME.  There are still enough flattish members that the mean is a feather brush/miss, but that was a huge trend to assume it can't tick more tonight. 

 

We also should be vigil of the age old data-sparse/assimilation concern as the governing mechanics relay off the Pacific... Friday's do on board tomorrow night in this a fast flat amplitude regime, and that could modulate everything further when that happens.  These type of quasi zonal amped flows are notorious performance headaches to the guidance'

I agree with the sentiment.  Definitely a shift en mass to the NW on the GFS ensembles.  But as for the specifics, I see mostly offshore misses and brushes with a few coastal scraper hits.  I did not see anything that got meaningful snow back to VT.  Doesn't really matter as there is still time for significant model shifts.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
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No recollection of that ... I'll probably nerd out over the NCEP library tonight looking that one up... But I was living in Waltham over here in eastern MA at the time, and I'm almost wondering if that snow part of the big change came more to western zones? 

 

hnmm.  do you guys know the specific Apr dates?

I think there were flurries in Boston after a warm day preceding.  Driving from there to NY State, I remember snow on the ground increasing through CT.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

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No recollection of that ... I'll probably nerd out over the NCEP library tonight looking that one up... But I was living in Waltham over here in eastern MA at the time, and I'm almost wondering if that snow part of the big change came more to western zones?

hnmm. do you guys know the specific Apr dates?

I think it was 4/8 or 4/9, it was a semi FROPA where the upper trof went severely negative and a surface low formed after the front passed along the strong negative titled trof

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I agree with the sentiment.  Definitely a shift en mass to the NW on the GFS ensembles.  But as for the specifics, I see mostly offshore misses and brushes with a few coastal scraper hits.  I did not see anything that got meaningful snow back to VT.  Doesn't really matter as there is still time for significant model shifts.

 

yeah, i over stated that by about 100 miles on closer members; the resolution of the product i looked at isn't all that great, and so i blew it up in a separate app... whatever, the gist of it is paramount.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I think it was 4/8 or 4/9, it was a semi FROPA where the upper trof went severely negative and a surface low formed after the front passed along the strong negative titled trof

 

i'll take a look tonight ... but from the sounds of that... might have been warmer in CAR then ALB during that thing - 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

No recollection of that ... I'll probably nerd out over the NCEP library tonight looking that one up... But I was living in Waltham over here in eastern MA at the time, and I'm almost wondering if that snow part of the big change came more to western zones? 

 

hnmm.  do you guys know the specific Apr dates?

 

April 9th.  This is the local Albany summary of that storm.  Mid-70s on Saturday, 13.3" of snow on Sunday at KALB (which for the record would be 5" more than ALB has received this entire winter).

 

It wasn't supposed to be a big snowfall, with a low moving from the Carolina's to ACK and relatively weak.  But it ended up much stronger than anticipated and tracked over ORH instead of ACK, thus burying eastern NY.

 

http://files.cbs6albany.com/wrgb/weather_historical_daily/2000/Apr9-2000_SnowStorm.htm

 

 

By 2pm Saturday, clues were beginning to develop which might have suggested a much greater snowfall than was forecast for Sunday, April 9.  At the jet stream level a strong disturbance was diving southeastward into the base of the large scale trough that was now digging into the Southeast.  This jet stream disturbance was forcing a new surface storm to form on the cold front over western South Carolina.   This ultimately would be the storm to produce the heavy snow over eastern New York and western New England.

In the meantime over the Northeast, the cold front continued to steadily progress across the state, preceded by a few widely scattered showers and thunder showers through the afternoon and early evening.  The front passed Albany at approximately 6pm on the 8th, dropping the temperature from 76 at 6pm to 57 degrees at 6:15pm to 50 degrees at 7:30pm and to 39 degrees at 11pm.  Steady rain did not develop until well after the front had moved east of the region, shortly after midnight on the 9th.

At this point in the forecast, it was anticipated that the cold front would continue to be progressive in nature and the storm that had formed over western South Carolina would be weaker and move much further east, off of Nantucket by Sunday morning, than what actually occurred.  The jet stream disturbance, as it turned out, was much stronger than anticipated and thus was able to bend the main steering flow up the Atlantic seaboard from its southwest to northeast direction on Saturday the 8th, to a more due south to north configuration by early Sunday morning the 9th.   With a due south to north flow, the cold front which had moved through the Capital Region, delivering the very cold air, lost it's atmospheric push to keep it moving east.   With the front now parallel to the upper air flow, it stalled over the Connecticut river valley in west central, MA.  The stalled front then acted as a highway for the Carolina low pressure system to cruise north along and intensify.  And that is exactly what happened.  As the low tracked along the front and grew stronger it induced a stronger northwest airflow over eastern New York which allowed even colder air to move into the region changing the rain over to snow by about 3am on the 9th.  The low then transported a hefty slug of Atlantic moisture over the cold dome over New York which translated into a period of extremely heavy snow over the Mohawk valley, Adirondacks and Capital Region, as well as western New England well into the afternoon on the 9th.   Snowfall rates exceeded two inches per hour for a time early on Sunday morning.   By 8am on the 9th the storm was located near Worcester, MA producing the blinding snow over the Capital District. The system began to accelerate by midday Sunday, as the parent jet stream disturbance moved out, finally bringing an end to the snowstorm.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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Good for them ...wow.  great positive bust story.  we all got them - it is hoped.

 

yeah, being in Waltham Mass I was squarely on the wrong side of that one for any kind of impact.  Probably why I don't recall it.  Must have also been an exceedingly tight gradient going from paste to mid 50s between the berks and eastern zones at the height of that thing.  

 

just think some decades from now the technology will be so sophisticated that any busting will be a thing of the past.    :unsure:

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
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Good for them ...wow.  great positive bust story.  we all got them - it is hoped.

 

yeah, being in Waltham Mass I was squarely on the wrong side of that one for any kind of impact.  Probably why I don't recall it.  Must have also been an exceedingly tight gradient going from paste to mid 50s between the berks and eastern zones at the height of that thing.  

 

just think some decades from now the technology will be so sophisticated that any busting will be a thing of the past.    :unsure:

 

It is true.  Even the difference from 2000 to 2016 has been huge for model data...and its availability to the public, too. 

 

The true positive bust is hard to come by now, especially within 12 hours of start time.  I distinctly remember that storm, they had Winter Storm Warnings out for above 1,000ft in the Catskills and Adirondacks, but nothing for the Hudson Valley and eastward.  Then we woke up to heavy snow and Winter Storm Warnings for pretty much the entire ALB CWA. 

 

You can almost picture that happening now, with each HRRR run becoming more and more amped up as the afternoon goes along...and the low ends up over ORH instead of ACK.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Obviously we want to see larger shifts, but as long as the trend doesn't reverse itself there's plenty of time.  I think this eventually trends north for at least a glancing blow SE coast and Islands.

 

Out here I feel a bit squeezed.  Just a bit too far SE for Wed's event and probably ultimately just a bit too far NW for Fri night.  Still too early to write anything off, but it's feeling like our goose egg winter will continue.

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