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snowstormcanuck

Potential major winter storm - Feb 24-27

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Mess? Think it maybe weaker than initial thoughts but still going to give some in the sub forum a decent plastering.

 

Mess of a winter

 

I wouldn't call the 8" of snow in November last year and the 62 we hit this past Saturday a decent winter

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There's a lower spot of qpf and snow around detroit, but a specific like that this far out means nothing. The most important thing to take away is that 12z runs have now seen some sampling and the nam didn't jerk westward.

NAM is west/warmer compared to the 06z run (Cleveland vs. Erie, PA).

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12z NAM actually did come a little further west with the sfc low, compared to its 6z run...which is why the snow swath is a little further west as well. IMBY back to the battle ground rather than right in the heart.

 

post-257-0-58400400-1456153656_thumb.jpg

 

...but it's actually slightly weaker with both the sfc and ul low...so it may have just been a "noise" level shift.

 

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NAM very windy as well. We might get a good chunk of blowing and drifting wet snow/power outages

Yes..now power outages excite me..

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NAM is west/warmer compared to the 06z run (Cleveland vs. Erie, PA).

Not sure where you see 12z tracking over Cleveland? :huh:. Regardless two days ago I'd be thrilled with a Cleve track once partial sampling was introduced.

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Another eastward shift and we are out of the ballgame me thinks. Local met Fabert putting out his snowfall map this afternoon, I'll stick with the 3-6" forecast. Just a shame their is not more cold air to work with.

I would think their won't be much blowing snow as the snow should be wet and heavy in nature.

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Another eastward shift and we are out of the ballgame me thinks. Local met Fabert putting out his snowfall map this afternoon, I'll stick with the 3-6" forecast. Just a shame their is not more cold air to work with.

I would think their won't be much blowing snow as the snow should be wet and heavy in nature.

12/28/15 had a ton of blowing and drifting despite the wet nature of the snow.

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I think places in South Mi could be pushing Blizzard warning criteria during this thing, what do the mets think?

You've mentioned that several times. Too early to make the call IMO, especially given some of the (somewhat) weaker 12Z runs.

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The NAM runs have certainly shifted back west from 6Z this morning...but still doesn't look good for those who were looking at 6 to 12 inches on the models yesterday.

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12z NAM actually did come a little further west with the sfc low, compared to its 6z run...which is why the snow swath is a little further west as well. IMBY back to the battle ground rather than right in the heart.

 

attachicon.gif12zNAM.jpg

 

...but it's actually slightly weaker with both the sfc and ul low...so it may have just been a "noise" level shift.

 

Can clearly see the Region of Waterloo and Wellington County on there. Harrisale..  :)

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I'm going to be riding the battle lines on this one.

 

I'll be driving right up the gut Thursday morning though -- damnit.

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just no cold air to play with and a huge wide open warm sector

 

gfs_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif

 

 

Not ready to even make a first guess at this point.  Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to.

 

Could really make an argument either way (nw or se).  On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY.  Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group.

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I wouldn't say non event (shows 4-5" for dtw) btw definitely sticking with being the furthest west model.

Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No one cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill.

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Anything under those amounts in this kind of setup that doesn't happen to often around these parts....is a non event. You gotta score big in this setup. No cares about 3-5" of wet snow in late February. It's run of the mill.

 

Not even I care.

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Not ready to even make a first guess at this point.  Pretty complex setup as Izzi alluded to.

 

Could really make an argument either way (nw or se).  On the plus side, still have plenty of 9z SREF members juiced/north...a little less than half the suite spits out over 12" at GYY.  Basically have 2 groups...the over 12" group and the 0-8" group.

lol

 

Weren't computers supposed to make this stuff easier?

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