A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 4 km Kuchera map has a foot in Valpo and about an inch at ORD. Off the top of my head, can't remember that kind of spread between ORD and northwest Indiana in a synoptic event. that would rule and i bet that has happened the other way around (heck the november event came close) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 that would rule and i bet that has happened the other way around (heck the november event came close) You could be right. Seems like there have been a number of events in recent years that hammered ORD with northwest IN not getting nearly as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 4KM has a really aggressive TROWAL feature, which i guess makes sense given how wrapped up it gets at 700 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Almost becoming indisputable that the defo-zone should deliver a least a couple of inches for Toronto. Real question is the stuff along the warm front. NAM and EURO seem to line up the rain/snow divide right along the 0c 850 isotherm. Haven't seen the soundings but wouldn't be surprised to see the column isothermal. Also, with the occlusion forecasted to possibly happen earlier than previously anticipated, that should limit any mid level warming. Tough forecast. Fractional degrees too cold and the front end could all be rain. Won't make a call yet because of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 A track over south central ohio is usually pretty good for nw ohio.........not this time lol. The cold air doesn't wrap in until late and thus comes the backlash bailout hopes. This season, almost every person in the sub has had at least one episode of "perfect track, sh*tty storm", welcome to the 2015-16 Garbage Winter club! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 This season, almost every person in the sub has had at least one episode of "perfect track, sh*tty storm", welcome to the 2015-16 Garbage Winter club! yeah, we've definitely had a couple favorable SLP tracks with a ULL well northwest delivering rain for MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 composite reflectivity scale for snow is maxed out on here... All in all, setup looks favorable for some 1-2" per hour rates in the heart of the band (as long as temps cooperate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Parallel EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 IWX holding off til morning, makes sense given the uncertainty. .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)ISSUED AT 404 PM EST MON FEB 22 2016OBVIOUS FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON WINTER STORM SYSTEM FORWEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WHILE 12Z MODELS CONTINUED TO BE CLUSTEREDTOGETHER AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC SCALE...MANY DIFFERENCESAND CONCERNS ON THE LOCAL SCALE WITH THERMAL PROFILES AND DYNAMICCOOLING PROCESSES PLAYING A LARGE PART IN SNOWFALLACCUMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETDIGGING INTO BACKSIDE OF TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY. THISENERGY WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE PANHANDLEOF TEXAS TOMORROW. CLASSIC PANHANDLE HOOK LOW THEN EXPECTED WITH SFCLOW INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND INTOTHE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. PREFERENCE FORTHIS FORECAST CYCLE CONTINUES TO BE WITH ECMWF AND GFS WITH GFS USEDPRIMARILY IN THE LOCAL TOP DOWN PRECIPITATION METHOD. STILL TIMEFOR MODELS TO DO THEIR USUAL ADJUSTMENT NEXT FEW CYCLES SOCONFIDENCE IN LOCAL DETAILS REMAIN LOW WHILE CONFIDENCE IN STORMSYSTEM ITSELF IS HIGH.MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THETA E ADVECTIONINCREASING AFTER 06Z IN THE SOUTH. WARM LAYER ALOFT AND SFC TEMPSINDICATES PCPN TO BEGIN AS RAIN CHANGING TO A RAIN AND SNOW MIX ASMOISTURE MOVES NORTH EARLY WED MORNING. THERMAL PROFILES DOINDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AT ONSET WITHEVAP COOLING PROCESSES AND TEMPS AROUND 32F. THIS LOOKS TO BESHORT LIVED WITH HIGHER RES GUIDANCE BRINING SFC TEMPS ABOVEFREEZING. CONCERN THOUGH WITH STOUT LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST WINDINCREASING THAT COLD AIR COULD GET LOCKED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.FOR NOW STAYED WITH RAIN OR SNOW MIX AND WILL SORT OUT DETAILSWITH LATER PACKAGES.NEXT FOCUS IS ON THERMAL PROFILES WEDNESDAY. SFC TEMPS WARM INTO MID30S WITH TEMPS ALOFT ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OFFORECAST AREA. PCPN TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OFTHE AREA AND GFS TOP DOWN KEEPS PCPN MAINLY RAIN INTO WEDNESDAYEVENING. DGZ DURING MUCH OF THIS EVENT IS RATHER HIGH AND AROUND10KFT TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY WITH STRONGEST OMEGA FOCUSED BELOW THISLEVEL. THIS COULD HELP KEEP PCPN AS WET SNOW OR MIX WITH SMALL SNOWTO LIQUID RATIOS AND LIMITED ACCUMS UNTIL WED NIGHT. USED A MODELBLEND FOR CENTRAL AND WEST WITH RAIN AND SNOW MIX BUT KEPT EASTERNAREAS ALL RAIN. THUS AMOUNTS FOR NOW WERE KEPT ON THE LOW SIDE.STRENGTH OF DYNAMIC COOLING AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WILL BECRITICAL IN FINAL DETERMINATION OF SNOW AMOUNTS WEDNESDAY. COLDERAIR WILL THEN MOVE IN AND CHANGE PCPN TO ALL SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHTALL AREAS. THIS PERIOD INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE BULK OF SNOW AND WIND.WITH THIS STILL BEING A LATE 4TH PERIOD INTO 6TH PERIOD EVENT ANDCONCERNS WITH PCPN TYPE WEDNESDAY...OPTED TO SIDE WITH MOSTNEIGHBORS AND HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE.WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR DURING THIS EVENT AS WELL. RAPIDCYCLOGENESIS WILL LEAD TO STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS LATERWEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED ANDGUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE WET SNOW ISEXPECTED...SUCH STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING ANDDRIFTING NOT TO MENTION POSSIBLE POWER OUTAGES WITH WEIGHT OF SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 yeah, we've definitely had a couple favorable SLP tracks with a ULL well northwest delivering rain for MBY yea, it's all about the ULL cutting too far north, that's why it's sucked. How much for Indy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 NWS Chicago said no watch yet. IWX still may issue one. I have my doubts. Why would Chicago issue a watch? IWX should probably be considering one... tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Why would Chicago issue a watch? IWX should probably be considering one... tough call. NW Indiana and extreme SE parts of the CWA, I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Almost becoming indisputable that the defo-zone should deliver a least a couple of inches for Toronto. Real question is the stuff along the warm front. NAM and EURO seem to line up the rain/snow divide right along the 0c 850 isotherm. Haven't seen the soundings but wouldn't be surprised to see the column isothermal. Also, with the occlusion forecasted to possibly happen earlier than previously anticipated, that should limit any mid level warming. Tough forecast. Fractional degrees too cold and the front end could all be rain. Won't make a call yet because of that. It's a tough forecast, but I don't see how Toronto scores big out of this. Even if the track magically pans out, thermals will still be an issue. The warm air has little cold air to scour out. I predict a rather easy transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 DVN has introduced the potential for a snow shower or a flurry for the eastern cwa.. ENERGY IS CERTAINLY POURINGINTO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT TODAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY CREATE A TIGHTSTRONG CYCLONE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN STATES...HOWEVER...WITHINITIAL ZONAL FLOW RATHER THAN RIDGING ALOFT EAST OF THATFEATURE...IT SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY TO AMPLIFY THE PATTERN QUICKLYENOUGH TO ALLOW A TRACK FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT OUR CWA.HOWEVER...YOU CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SNOW SHOWER ON THENORTHWEST SIDE OF THIS LOW...AND A DRY FORECAST AT THIS POINT ISNOT MEANT TO RULE OUT A FLURRY. Get the plows ready!! #suckage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 composite reflectivity scale for snow is maxed out on here... nam4kmFLT_prec_radar_048.gif All in all, setup looks favorable for some 1-2" per hour rates in the heart of the band (as long as temps cooperate) Regardless of of what the overall totals end up being...I'm thinking the areas that end up near the rain/snow border are locked for some hardcore plaster rippage. 700 mb VV and some steep (if shallow) mid level lapse rates look thundersnow-able to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Thinking of blizzards that had wet snow and not drier snow that is more common, one that comes to mind is March 9, 1998...also a super Nino winter. Temps did drop with time but there's a good stretch there of temps in the 30s with blizzard conditions. obs from Gary: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 It does appear we are starting to see some pretty good model agreement on where the heaviest snowfall axis will set up. E. Illinois-NW Indiana-C. Michigan seems to be the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 4 km clobbers the northwestern tier of IN. 12 km has the axis farther south. I noticed with the NAM is has some sort of pivot action in NW IN/southern end of the lake after 60 hours. Looks like the ULL. Orientation of the snow band is more W to E like the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Bit of a better phase on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Bit of a better phase on the 18z GFS. Looks further west. Low cuts west of CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 thermals so bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 thermals so bad Could be better. But as long as this comes together as progged with the zone of intense forcing, hard to believe temps won't respond and allow for some pretty rapid accumulations, even with a late February sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 You can see where the 10:1 ratio hold up and where they don't by comparing the Kuchera. Around here it is west of the lake. Alek's 5.5" call looking better again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 By Comparison, the 18z NAM COBB data has 10.8" at YYZ with an average ratio of 8:1. The 18z GFS has 1-3" of backend snow. As SSC mentioned, it looks like the defo band should deliver pretty nicely. The big question lies in the WF position and duration of RN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Gonna nail it, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 That is one heck of a gradient through Will County in LOT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro is going full isothermal 700-1000mb at yyz. Definitely a considerable difference on low track on the gfs/euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Euro is going full isothermal 700-1000mb at yyz. Definitely a considerable difference on low track on the gfs/euro. What does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 What does that mean? it just means it's a tough call lol...but the euro is snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 it just means it's a tough call lol...but the euro is snowy. It means it's due or die for us St. Louis folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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