TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well, the 00Z GFS keeps us "western folks" in the game. So now we have Uncle Ukie, GFS, JMA, SREFs in the western camp, with Canadians and the NAMs in the eastern camp, with the Euro playing in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Nope GFS won't budge. Instead doubles down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Snow shield shifts west on 00z GFS. Ya just when you though it would shift a little east it goes even further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lol...this is like Tug of War... Chicago vs. Toronto...stay tuned to find out who wins. Detroit will most likely get in on some action while Hillsdale, Michigan gets BLIZZARD WARNINGS!!!!!!!!!! Geos, pull a bit harder on the rope and hold up your magnet...we don't want the Canadians to win this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 "fake snow" lol So it would actually show virga on the radar composite, but not count it as precip? I didn't realize the models would show that. Maybe it's just hours and hours of flurries. bahaha Yeah will chalk it up as mood flakes for several hours. ^ Ground temps initially are all above freezing in the deformation band. After 54 hours it finally starts cooling faster in MI, and IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lol...this is like Tug of War... Chicago vs. Toronto...stay tuned to find out who wins. Detroit will most likely get in on some action while Hillsdale, Michigan gets BLIZZARD WARNINGS!!!!!!!!!! Geos, pull a bit harder on the rope and hold up your magnet...we don't want the Canadians to win this one! You guys have won every single tug of war the past 6 years... let go of the rope for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Lol...this is like Tug of War... Chicago vs. Toronto...stay tuned to find out who wins. Detroit will most likely get in on some action while Hillsdale, Michigan gets BLIZZARD WARNINGS!!!!!!!!!! Geos, pull a bit harder on the rope and hold up your magnet...we don't want the Canadians to win this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On the GFS, the low now tracks near Toledo and Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So close, yet so far from that sweet spot. A little east and i'd be set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 At least the big dog amounts aren't as near of a miss as shown before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Hmmm. Even a better/quicker phase on this run compared to the 18z run and pulling the srn stream ULL more northward Ukie and Euro will be huge to see if the GFS is an outlier or onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Unusual for the NAM/RGEM to be SE of the GFS at this range... especially to this extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I just don't understand how we can't tuck that low back a little farther NW..w/e Still a nice hit for Chicago and still think they'll jackpot for the big cities. I just think this could have been much bigger to the NW but it doesn't want to give it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Kuchera Ratios and IWMap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Given the GFS is facing off against the RGEM and NAM... I'd bet on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So close, yet so far from that sweet spot. A little east and i'd be set. Good to see the GFS keeping us NE Illinois folks in it. Enjoying this thread. Just for you, Hillsdale: https://gyazo.com/ac42640b0b89fd202b1cbb07f53bdd01 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 sounds like so far its GFS/SREF Vs NAM/RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 23, 2016 Author Share Posted February 23, 2016 Tough not to give the GFS some credence. Heights of the H5 low are probably 2-3 SD below normal and the base of a 110-130kt jet streak. Seems like a conducive environment for a rapidly deepening low that moves N/NNE. But then you have the normally reliable EURO/EURO ensembles with a low over SYR ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Take it to the crybaby board. We've had it pretty good until this winter. First flake hasn't even fallen. Storms don't always end up IYBY. Hike up your diaper and roll on. It's embarrassing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 sounds like so far its GFS/SREF Vs NAM/RGEM Kinda weird seeing the GFS closer to the SREF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 So ABC World News was right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Ukie and Euro will be huge to see if the GFS is an outlier or onto something. Yep. Really nice signal in both the QPF and 700mb UVV's of the nrn stream wave acting to enhance snowfall on the western side for both of us from about 3-12z Thursday. And by that time colder air both at the surface and aloft is advecting into the area with the strong winds. 925mb winds of 40-50kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Kinda weird seeing the GFS closer to the SREF. Yea I would've thought SREF would be closer to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 On the GFS, the low now tracks near Toledo and Detroit. I'd be shocked if it did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I've been shocked for days it's not getting any closer to Detroit. Tough from where it's ejecting but dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 5 miles NW of me flirting with 20" 5 miles SE of me flirting with 4" Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One thing, might be nothing but the GFS is about 5 degrees too high on the dewpoint right now. If we stayed drier closer into the precip arriving we will wet bulb the temperature down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 5 miles NW of me flirting with 20" 5 miles SE of me flirting with 4" Wow. image.jpeg At least the big dog amounts aren't as near of a miss as shown before..powerball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 One thing, might be nothing but the GFS is about 5 degrees too high on the dewpoint right now. If we stayed drier closer into the precip arriving we will wet bulb the temperature down. That's actually a really fair point, and the track the GFS is showing right now is very odd. I feel on the 06Z or 12Z run it will come back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 At least the big dog amounts aren't as near of a miss as shown before..powerball I will drive that whole 4 mins to get to that 20" lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.