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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

You sure this time? :P

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=048&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=096&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=120

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I was gonna say people are gonna challenge those statements with a 90.5 verf score equal to the gfs lol

I don't think those scores are as useful as they are presented. It can do well with a 500mb NHEM pattern and still be wrong on important details. I can't remember that model winning much over the years.. it's very often the coldest and snowiest. I should start a gallery of times it blasts 95 only to be wrong.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted

I don't think those scores are as useful as they are presented. It can do well with a 500mb NHEM pattern and still be wrong on important details. I can't remember that model winning much over the years.. it's very often the coldest and snowiest. I should start a gallery of times it blasts 95 only to be wrong.

I'd still like to see it verify.    :weenie:

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Ian

Ian

Posted
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i don't think it even has good verification scores?

I really never look at that stuff but supposedly it usually does well. I only really care about how a model performs around here with details though. Of course scoring near the GFS probably leaves something to be desired lol. :P

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

I'd still like to see it verify.    :weenie:

Could happen. Though I think everything logical still argues this is all a front end hope storm around our parts of the area. Euro could still be too dry early.

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mdsnowlover

mdsnowlover

Posted
Posted

:huh:

 

From GG:

 

According to the GEM's PTYPE (looking at tropicaltidbit's maps... I don't get ptype from my WSI interface), you (and I) don't go to rain even by H96... we go to ice. Snow, ice, no rain (unless mixed is identified the same way as ice... maybe we mix).

how do you get GG?? facebook, email??

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ohwxguy

ohwxguy

Posted
Posted

So the GGEM drops somewhat similar amounts of front end snow as the NAM & GFS depicted in the 12z runs, but it also tries to keep low level cold air in place Monday night through about daybreak on Tuesday and therefore produces a lot of freezing rain for DC (perhaps a half inch of rain falling with surface temps at or below 32).

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Ralph Wiggum

Ralph Wiggum

Posted
Posted

Now that made me spit out my drink laughing.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

The CRAP, err, CRAS is a weak strung out LP to the South. Extrapolating (which is smart to do with the crappy CRAS ;)  ) would be mostly frozen DCA-NYC fwiw. In all seriousness though, it is REALLY odd that the CRAS isn't blowing this thing up. It almost ALWAYS overamps things.  

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted

The pattern has sucked.. Strong nino is a pain. The threats last weekend were a joke. I'd go down with the ship on this one before buying the Canadian lol. 2 Euros > everything else.

 

The 2 euros say I win so I'll hug them too. I have a hunch the euro twins come in juicier on the front side stuff too. We'll know the first answer in an hour. 

 

The pattern has been rough. My call was a super simple "looks like cold shots during the first half of the month and it's a Feb Nino. 2" should happen right?". There's my science. The last event was close though. Temps cursed us...again. Seeing some 5-8" totals not to far from the cities makes it a decent "event" for general purposes. 

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
Posted

GGEM never goes to plain liquid...lol

 

 

GGEM is terrible. I don't care about verification scores.. it sucks with EC storms.

 

GGEM has a suppression bias.  Not sure if you all remember the storm last winter when it held on to this silly southern solution well past the other models and the low went well to our west...To add insult to injury NAM got it right first at like 72 hours and suddenly everyone talked about how great the NAM was...

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

Posted
Posted

GGEM has a suppression bias. Not sure if you all remember the storm last winter when it held on to this silly southern solution well past the other models and the low went well to our west...To add insult to injury NAM got it right first at like 72 hours and suddenly everyone talked about how great the NAM was...

Do remember that one. Guess it's at least good to see the nam going where it is thus far with this oen
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