#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[WinterWxLuvr]

Right or wrong it's being a rock right now with a decided west track. It's not wavering from that idea at all. As you said earlier, even a gfs-cmc/euro compromise won't get the job done. 

 

I've always expected rain in my yard either way. What I really didn't like (and hope is wrong) is the drier front side solution than the euro. 

Bob.........I think this is a stretch.  If you want to post its past 4 runs, I'll remain open minded.  But calling it a rock I think is a real stretch.

[psuhoffman]

It might be too far west but it is hard to bet against it. I do kind of doubt the low will punch through central PA and toward the lakes. But an I95 track doesn't change much for us.

normally a compromise is the no brainer but this time relatively early on in the evolution this will go one way or another.  Either that trough is going to phase or its not.  I suppose a partial phase could lead to something in between but I think most likely that northern stream vort behind is either going to dive in like the euro UK think or not and there is only so far west a GFS/GGEM/NAM unphased system can go. 

[psuhoffman]

Randy, here's a sciencey version of that phenomenon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

probably why superstar athletes often make poor coaches.  They assume things that were easy for them should be easy for everyone. 

[nflwxman]

after that horror show we need some good news... GGEM mean snowfall

GGEMsnow.gif

 

Personally, I think the GGEM has been the real rock here with it's ensembles (and it might be totally wrong since it's an inferior model).  The 12z Euro moved the low approximately 300 miles N of it's position at 0z.  Though the result is the same, the way it gets there is somewhat different.  In addition, the Euro had much better high placement than it's 0z run and yet it cut even harder...

[yoda]

Doesn't look like there is a set MSLP at hr 87 on the 15z SREFs... so a lean towards GGEM/GFS/NAM?  or no?

[BTRWx]

probably why superstar athletes often make poor coaches.  They assume things that were easy for them should be easy for everyone. 

That sounds like a math professor.

[Bob Chill]

Bob.........I think this is a stretch.  If you want to post its past 4 runs, I'll remain open minded.  But calling it a rock I think is a real stretch.

 

I was 1 run too many. 0z run on 2/11 was the last east track. 3 in a row since then that aren't all that different from each other irt west track. I'm not saying it can't jump back east or be wrong with the phase or any of that stuff. But seeing 3 west tracks that aren't all that different from each other should give one pause. If 12z today was the first west track after being east the previous 3 then I would have a much easier time thinking it had a bad run. I'll let everyone make form their own opinions here.  

 

0z 2/11

 

 

12z 2/11

 

 

0z 2/12

 

 

12z 2/12

 

[Ian]

normally a compromise is the no brainer but this time relatively early on in the evolution this will go one way or another.  Either that trough is going to phase or its not.  I suppose a partial phase could lead to something in between but I think most likely that northern stream vort behind is either going to dive in like the euro UK think or not and there is only so far west a GFS/GGEM/NAM unphased system can go. 

Seems it got messed up today but interestingly CIPS analog guidance has been consistently more bearish than the GFS output. It has favored an elevation event as well... last night's run median snowfall was 0 in the 95 corridor.

[yoda]

Doesn't look like there is a set MSLP at hr 87 on the 15z SREFs... so a lean towards GGEM/GFS/NAM?  or no?

 

QPF looks okay as well I believe for a lil bit of snows... or am I wrong once again?

[usedtobe]

QPF looks okay as well I believe for a lil bit of snows... or am I wrong once again?

I think you still lean towards the Euro/UKMET or a compromise as they verify better on average than the GFS contingent.  Still, either camp could be right and there is no need this early to make a choice except for bragging rights. 

[Herb@MAWS]

LWX updated kinda early this afternoon, at 2pm. In line with most thoughts posted here the

past few days. Only copied parts of disco --

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC  

202 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016  

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  

 

THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY WHILE THE  

HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL  

CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE  

SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC  

COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER  

THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A  

WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO  

TUESDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO GUIDANCE  

DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.  

 

IF THE LOW IS STRONGER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER WEST CAUSING  

WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR  

WINTRY MIX/ICE LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS WEAKER IT WILL TRACK  

FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR  

IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/ICE.  

AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION  

SINCE SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT.  

 

BOTTOM LINE...IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE  

ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANGE  

OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN LATE MONDAY  

NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS  

POSSIBLE...AND THIS WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY  

NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.  

 

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND  

DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE  

WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS  

OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.  

 

[yoda]

2:00 PM LWX AFD update

 

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL CAUSE LOW PRESSURE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. DESPITE THE LOW BEING FAR AWAY
FROM THE AREA...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERRUNNING THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN PLENTY
OF CLOUDS ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY WHILE THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO OVERRUN THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...RESULTING IN MORE
SNOW. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS UP THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MORE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WARMER AIR WILL CAUSE A CHANGE OVER TO A
WINTRY MIX AND PERHAPS EVEN OVER TO ALL RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO GUIDANCE
DIFFERING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

IF THE LOW IS STRONGER IT WILL LIKELY TRACK FARTHER WEST CAUSING
WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN QUICKER. THIS WOULD KEEP THE THREAT FOR
WINTRY MIX/ICE LOW. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW IS WEAKER IT WILL TRACK
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WOULD KEEP LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR
IN PLACE WHICH COULD LEAD TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX/ICE.
AS OF NOW...THE FORECAST LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE LATTER SOLUTION
SINCE SCOURING OUT OF THE LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR WILL BE DIFFICULT.

BOTTOM LINE...IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE
ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A CHANGE
OVER TO A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY RAIN LATE MONDAY
NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE...AND THIS WOULD IMPACT TRAVEL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.

THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA LATER TUESDAY AND
DRIER AIR MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD TOWARD THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.

[87storms]

we average about 8-9" of liquid during the winter, which means only about 1-2" of it is frozen.  give me arctic cold and i'll take my chances on a little snow around here.

[midatlanticweather]

No matter WHAT the models show, everyone is up for the 1AM Saturday NAIL IN THE COFFIN run! 

 

If somehow this thing gets on life support, This weekend will be one by the fire and many refreshes of AMWx Forum and NCEP sites! I remember when we could crash NCEP a few years back! LOL!

 

On a serious note, other than the departing colder air (and Climo), there really is not one thing that is right in the pattern for snow! Sometimes I wish the forecast was easy, but I must admit, following every run and scrutinizing every detail is fun! 

[psuhoffman]

Seems it got messed up today but interestingly CIPS analog guidance has been consistently more bearish than the GFS output. It has favored an elevation event as well... last night's run median snowfall was 0 in the 95 corridor.

one caveat to that is the cold. Most setups with this upper level pattern would have no shot. The arctic air at least gives us a chance.

[RichmondTarHeel]

Just wanted to point out that the Euro was wrong in the Feb 21-22 event last year which has a similar track.  I'm not a met, nor do I have the knowledge of you guys here on the forum who only do this as a hobby, but I don't think the Euro is as good as people claim.  In most cases, don't you throw out the outlier, not the other 4 that are showing something similar?

 

I'm just wishcasting the crap out of this storm. 

[Ian]

one caveat to that is the cold. Most setups with this upper level pattern would have no shot. The arctic air at least gives us a chance.

Yeah, and a lot of people are overhedging on it IMO.

[Ian]

EPS mean looks like 0z for most part. 2"+ mainly fall line and west on front end. 4"+ BR and west. Then rain.

[psuhoffman]

I was 1 run too many. 0z run on 2/11 was the last east track. 3 in a row since then that aren't all that different from each other irt west track. I'm not saying it can't jump back east or be wrong with the phase or any of that stuff. But seeing 3 west tracks that aren't all that different from each other should give one pause. If 12z today was the first west track after being east the previous 3 then I would have a much easier time thinking it had a bad run. I'll let everyone make form their own opinions here.

[/url]

I'm kinda torn. On the one hand what your saying makes sense but on the other the inverse logic of that is that the ggem and gfs are consistently wrong. The euros recent track record makes it a harder leap of faith to take that side then it would have been in the past. Euro was consistently putting that inverted trough across central va for 5/6 runs last week when gfs ggem was saying no it's up here. This is kinda a 50/50 situation in my mind.

[Bob Chill]

EPS mean looks like 0z for most part. 2"+ mainly fall line and west on front end. 4"+ BR and west. Then rain.

 

Looks good enough. Some nice hits and whiffs in the mix but overall a 2-4" event from east to west. I'll take it. 

[nflwxman]

I'm kinda torn. On the one hand what your saying makes sense but on the other the inverse logic of that is that the ggem and gfs are consistently wrong. The euros recent track record makes it a harder leap of faith to take that side then it would have been in the past. Euro was consistently putting that inverted trough across central va for 5/6 runs last week when gfs ggem was saying no it's up here. This is kinda a 50/50 situation in my mind.

 

The GFS is sort of a blend of the GGEM and Euro. That's what I'm kind of hedging on now.  The front end stuff will be high ratio and a given.

[Ian]

Looks good enough. Some nice hits and whiffs in the mix but overall a 2-4" event from east to west. I'll take it. 

yeah wxbell has 2" thru DC in the mean. always a bit of a diff between there and SV.

[Bob Chill]

yeah wxbell has 2" thru DC in the mean. always a bit of a diff between there and SV.

 

Mean track and biggest cluster is right up the spine of the BR through central PA. Pretty good agreement there. 

[Ian]

increased spread by day 4 but majority of lows pass thru the C VA to WV corridor, after more scattershot but probably favors the op solution more than not.

[psuhoffman]

Yeah, and a lot of people are overhedging on it IMO.

I'm pretty pessimistic myself but I'm keeping one foot in the door at least until the more phased idea becomes obvious. Plenty of ways this doesn't phase and a weaker system can work with the preceding airmass. How many times over the years are we sitting 4 days out wanting a phase to get some monster storm up the coast and that seems to fail more often then not.

[WinterWxLuvr]

100 chance euro is way wrong

I agree with 98 of this post

[BTRWx]

EPS mean looks like 0z for most part. 2"+ mainly fall line and west on front end. 4"+ BR and west. Then rain.

lol, look at that slp mean contour that surrounds GA, ME, and MN with cocs scattered between for Wed 0Z! Very little consensus still

[BTRWx]

Mean track and biggest cluster is right up the spine of the BR through central PA. Pretty good agreement there. 

Which cluster?

 

eta: Day 4 and Day 4.5 eps mean is very different

[Bob Chill]

Which cluster?

 

EPS is saying west track. No other way to interpret it. 

 

[BTRWx]

EPS is saying west track. No other way to interpret it. 

 

lowloc.JPG

How so? There are just as many Lows in south-central VA no?