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#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

Ji

By Ji,
in Mid Atlantic

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Ian

Ian

Posted
Posted

GGEM has a suppression bias.  Not sure if you all remember the storm last winter when it held on to this silly southern solution well past the other models and the low went well to our west...To add insult to injury NAM got it right first at like 72 hours and suddenly everyone talked about how great the NAM was...

Yeah I remember that. I think it was like 2 or 3 years ago it seemed the GGEM did OK and everyone was really into it. I barely looked at it at that point but have pretty consistently since and I am having trouble remembering a storm it "won."

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Deck Pic

Deck Pic

Posted
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Do remember that one. Guess it's at least good to see the nam going where it is thus far with this oen

 

If we're cognizant of the goalposts this event might end up ok, especially out west.  But keeping the ceiling in mind is important.  I'm not going to tell anyone what they should or shouldn't like in an event.  But as Ian mentioned, Strong Nino can be really hostile, and it is certainly possible winter could be effectively over after next week.  That's not my forecast, but it wouldn't stun me.

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Deck Pic

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Yeah I remember that. I think it was like 2 or 3 years ago it seemed the GGEM did OK and everyone was really into it. I barely looked at it at that point but have pretty consistently since and I am having trouble remembering a storm it "won."

 

It had a good winter in 13-14, after getting significant upgrades, but it ended up just being a finite heater.  It is still a Junior Varsity model.

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87storms

87storms

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If we're cognizant of the goalposts this event might end up ok, especially out west.  But keeping the ceiling in mind is important.  I'm not going to tell anyone what they should or shouldn't like in an event.  But as Ian mentioned, Strong Nino can be really hostile, and it is certainly possible winter could be effectively over after next week.  That's not my forecast, but it wouldn't stun me.

 

i think there's a difference between a snowstorm and seeing snow, and a big gray area in between.  anything less than a top shelf snowstorm involves expectation adjustments.  if expectations are held in check, then i think a 1-3" snow to rain scenario can still be satisfying "to an extent".

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

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i think there's a difference between a snowstorm and seeing snow, and a big gray area in between.  anything less than a top shelf snowstorm involves expectation adjustments.  if expectations are held in check, then i think a 1-3" snow to rain scenario can still be satisfying "to an extent".

 

What about 3-6" even though it's most likely going to go straight down the gutter within 12 hours? To me, that is a decent event because I get to watch 3-6" fall and not even have to shovel. I think the euro could very well show a 2-4/3-6 through the cities. I wonder what the response will be if it does but still pours rain. There seems to be a divergence of expectations and "ratings" with that scenario. I know Matt and probably Ian would be totally satisfied as would I. There's a bit of a battleground on the topic though. 

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DDweatherman

DDweatherman

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What about 3-6" even though it's most likely going to go straight down the gutter within 12 hours? To me, that is a decent event because I get to watch 3-6" fall and not even have to shovel. I think the euro could very well show a 2-4/3-6 through the cities. I wonder what the response will be if it does but still pours rain. There seems to be a divergence of expectations and "ratings" with that scenario. I know Matt and probably Ian would be totally satisfied as would I. There's a bit of a battleground on the topic though.

I love watching the snow fall and I'm definitely a stats padder type of guy. At 29.7" on season so need 5.3" for 35 in east Baltimore. That's the goal
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87storms

87storms

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What about 3-6" even though it's most likely going to go straight down the gutter within 12 hours? To me, that is a decent event because I get to watch 3-6" fall and not even have to shovel. I think the euro could very well show a 2-4/3-6 through the cities. I wonder what the response will be if it does but still pours rain. There seems to be a divergence of expectations and "ratings" with that scenario. I know Matt and probably Ian would be totally satisfied as would I. There's a bit of a battleground on the topic though. 

 

i mean, i'm not gonna bs...it does kinda suck when snow goes to rain, but it really is just how this area does things most of the time.  as a kid i wanted to kick something after a forecast bust or once the pingers started falling, but now i'm a little more educated and so my expectations are more realistic.  

 

that said, 3-6" would work.  i'd be pretty content with that, so long as it's a few hours and i get to do the standard walk outside with the iphone 5 camera (could use an upgrade) and just trying to take in the elements.

 

1-3" is definitely less exciting because it usually means a shorter event compared to 1-3" of a clipper that takes 8 hours to lay down 3" of powder.

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aldie 22

aldie 22

Posted
Posted

It seems like rain washing away a decent snow is more folklore than reality especially if its not too warm during the rain. We talk about it a ton but often times the snow hangs tough and just gets really heavy and wet obviously. If we get 3-6" it isn't getting washed away completely

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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It seems like rain washing away a decent snow is more folklore than reality especially if its not too warm during the rain. We talk about it a ton but often times the snow hangs tough and just gets really heavy and wet obviously. If we get 3-6" it isn't getting washed away completely

its rare but it can happen and this is the type of setup where it could.  I am NOT predicting that.  My guess is 3" ends up being the mark where you have snow left when its over which is more typical, but we had a storm in Dec 2003 where I got 5.5" in northern VA and it was washed away by almost 2" of warm rain the next 12 hours.  I also remember a storm in the late 80s in NJ where i got about 6-8" of snow that was immediately washed away by pouring rain.  Its very rare but not impossible. 

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
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its not to the money frames yet but the lead wave precip is much lighter and the 850 line is advancing north almost to our area way sooner then on the GFS/GGEM which had that main band starting as snow down to southern VA while Euro is bringing in precip as the warm layer is already blasting up towards us.  Early indications look kinda ehh to me

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

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its pretty much a total fail.  Any decent precip never even makes it in here.  Low winds up and cuts up through Tennessee.  Precip is aimed up to our west.  850 line is already running along the PA/NY border and the decent precip is still to our west running up the apps.  We get some really pathetic stuff with the first wave then dry slot as the low cuts up to our west. 

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