#PD3Attempt#13since2003 -Tracking the threat of the Presidents day storm Feb 15-16 2016

[psuhoffman]

Nam still in the colder unphased camp. 2-4" then significant ice west of 95. Something to keep in mind. If we do get the weaker east solutions that place that waa qpf shield aimed at us like on the nam ggem gfs, usually if you get under that waa thump area the snow holds on longer then models think. This only works in the unphased option. The euro storm type all the waa precip is to our nw as the cold gets shoved out too easy here. But if the nam type evolution is right then that's when we often see it show 2-4" then change when it ends up a 5" thump.

[Ian]

NAM doing NAM things. Its 500mb pattern is not that similar to the globals. Toss.

[MacintoshPro]

The NAM is happy hour sweetness!

Once the Euro gives us 6" we can start worrying about suppression

[Ian]

NAM doing NAM things. Its 500mb pattern is not that similar to the globals. Toss.

e.g., already has wave pushing through NC/VA/WV at 84. The globals have it over AL at the same time.

[dtk]

How is the FIM looking?

[BTRWx]

e.g., already has wave pushing through NC/VA/WV at 84. The globals have it over AL at the same time.

That lack of consensus is horrendous!

[Joshfsu123]

Surface temps are almost exactly like 12z, just less qpf. 850's go above freezing for a few hours, but surface stays below nw of 95 which may mean a bit of ice is possible.

 

This. The dark greens don't advance as far north on this run before the 850 line starts creeping into the area. Same general idea of that last run tho... and it is 72+ hours out on the NAM. So, eh.

[yoda]

Plumes from the 15z SREFs are all over the place from 0" to 6" and anywhere in between

[Ian]

That's lack of consensus is horrendous!

Euro/GFS/CMC are all pretty close at mid-levels. Just handle things differently at sfc. The NAM tends to move too fast at range.

[BTRWx]

Euro/GFS/CMC are all pretty close at mid-levels. Just handle things differently at sfc. The NAM tends to move too fast at range.

Where it all counts the most.

[Bob Chill]

Para gfs is a couple inches then deluge. Slp right over top of us.

[Warm Nose]

How is the FIM looking?

 

It too takes the low east up through NC and over the Delmarva, but warms the 850 where all we get is maybe a couple of inches before the warm-up.

[Ian]

New DGEX will be key.

[CAPE]

New DGEX will be key.

RPM?

[CAPE]

Any other obscure meso models out of range we can look at? I mean, if they give me snow, I am all over it.

[Ralph Wiggum]

NAM doing NAM things. Its 500mb pattern is not that similar to the globals. Toss.

But it's in the same camp with the CRAS so it *must* be right! 

[midatlanticweather]

Any other obscure meso models out of range we can look at? I mean, if they give me snow, I am all over it.

It is crap meso models war!

[BTRWx]

Although still out of range, the hi-res NAM to me implies another strung out mess with amplification lacking.

[yoda]

Still no set MSLP at hr 78 on 18z GFS

[Amped]

 GFS is caving to the NAM, Lolz

[stormtracker]

So we gonna pretend not to notice that the GFS is less amp'd and with no SLP vs 12z at the same time?

[yoda]

Weak low in E NC at 84 and Delmarva at 87... but its like 1012 mb... this GFS run was fun

[stormtracker]

Holy Hell..GFS is vastly different with the s/w...I mean, there is no SLP to be found 

[Amped]

Still no set MSLP at hr 78 on 18z GFS

Gonna go out on a limb and say the 980mb low over NYC from the 00z run won't happen.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

So we gonna pretend not to notice that the GFS is less amp'd and with no SLP vs 12z at the same time?

 

You probably couldn't ask for more of a contrast in solutions.  Either a more strung out system like the NAM and now GFS show, or a wound-up bomb that goes so far west it would make any frozen precip even in eastern OH/western PA doubtful.

[paulythegun]

big difference at 500mb between 12z GFS and 18z. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Pretty significant changes at 500 on GFS.   The shortwave that previously had dug almost to the gulf coast now is in Kentucky.  

[midatlanticweather]

Whaaaat! I am glad all things are coming into focus as we approach the event!

 

LOL!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

 GFS is caving to the NAM, Lolz

 

Not something you hear every day, that's for sure.  Now if the Euro goes the way of the NAM, I think the world will spin backwards.

[Bob Chill]

Gfs is a good run to keep the conversation going. Lol.